Rule Change 2: Superflex

I am proposing that we adopt the superflex rule: Instead of limiting the flex position to only RB or WR, we will allow players from any offensive position, including TE and QB.

Why?  Well, consider the following facts:

1. This year, Patrick Mahomes was the #1 QB, and it wasn't close.  On the season, under our scoring system, he outscored the #2 QB (Matt Ryan?) by 91 points.
2. At the same time, the difference between Ryan and the #15 QB (Dak Prescott) was also basically 91 points.
3. This means that, in a given week, unless you had Mahomes as your starter, it didn't really matter who your QB was.  You could reasonably expect that your QB would score within 1-2 points of your opponent's QB.

I'm too lazy to do the research on previous seasons, but this year is fairly typical.  Every year there's one (or two, or three) QBs who outscore the rest of the field by a substantial margin, and after that, the next 10-12 are all pretty much the same.  Since we're a 12-team league and we only start 1 QB, that means that unless you're lucky enough to draft a stud, the QB position is irrelevant.

I also notice that practically everyone drafts 2 QBs, presumably to have a backup in place for the bye week, or in case of injury.  But for the most part, a randomly-selected QB out of the waiver pool can do as well on a one-week fill-in basis as any QB you draft as your backup.  This year, for example, you could have picked up Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Nick Mullens depending on the week, and they would have done just fine for you.  So consequently, the standard league practice of drafting 2 QBs means that your backup QB is dead weight on your roster for most of the season.  Also, it means if you have 2 really good QBs (Kevin had both Luck and Goff, for example), you can't ever trade the backup, because no one else isn't willing to give up anything for a small improvement at QB.

(Okay, Adam traded away Roethlisberger, but such trades are really rare).

The bottom line is, we should consider doing something to make the QB position more interesting.  And the obvious solution is superflex.

If we adopt this rule, the QB position becomes much more interesting.  Since it will now be possible to start 2 QBs in a week:

1. QBs become a much hotter commodity in the draft, because if you manage to land TWO of the stud QBs, it gives you a huge edge.  In turn, this will mean that stud players at other positions will be available in later rounds, making the whole draft more interesting.
2. With only 1 starting QB, it doesn't much matter who your QB is, since there's not a lot of difference between the QB4 and the QB15.  When we can start 2 QBs, suddenly there's lots of competition to get ANY starting QB --- even a player like Josh Johnson can be worthy of a waiver pickup.
3. Because QBs will be in higher demand, there is likely to be more trade activity involving the QB position.  Would you trade Chris Carson for Ryan Fitzpatrick?  Suddenly that's not a stupid question.
4. Bye weeks become more challenging (and hopefully more fascinating).

I want to particularly emphasize how much this rule change will affect the draft.  This year, we drafted 21 QBs in the first 11 rounds.  If we adopt this rule, I anticipate that 21 QBs will go in roughly the first 5 rounds.  This is why I wanted to propose this rule change well before next year's draft.

Also, I shouldn't undersell the additional value this would give to the TE position.  Maybe you try to corner the market on TE with Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz?  Neither of those guys is going to score as much on a weekly basis as someone like Alex Smith (should he return), but it would be a nice double-threat when one of your QBs is on bye, or in case of a QB injury.

My thought is that we would simply change our existing flex spot to a superflex, but I'm open to the possibility of adding a superflex position to our starting lineup (and reducing bench size to 8 players, so we still have an 18 round draft).

As with the previous proposal, I'm not planning to schedule a vote on this change any time soon.  Instead, I'll give everyone time to ponder, discuss, question, etc.

(Footnote: This rule change has been a long time coming.  Does everyone remember my ill-fated attempt to eliminate the kicker position 5 years ago [yes, it has been five years]?  That was the first step of a two-step plan I had, to eliminate the kicker and replace it with a superflex.

When all of you inexplicably told me how much you loved the kicker position, it foiled my plans.  And it's taken me this long to take another stab at it).

Rule Change 1: A FAABulous Way to Pick Up Free Agents

Okay, so.

You know how sometimes a REALLY GOOD free agent running back will pop up during the season?  And maybe it just so happens that you REALLY NEED a running back, but it also just so happens that you're at the bottom of the waiver order?  So stupid Merrill gets the really good running back, even though he already has THREE of them on his roster?

And not only that, but --- you're SO desperate at running back that you put in a waiver claim for some other guy who's only kind of good, so you're still at the bottom of the waiver order next week when another REALLY GOOD running back pops up?

Yeah.  That sucks, right?

I propose that we change the way we handle waivers.  I propose we move to blind-auction bidding on free agents, where everyone bids using a $100 Free Agent Acquisition Budget (otherwise known as FAAB --- not real money) for the whole season.  I'm guessing most of you are familiar with this process from other leagues, but for those who aren't, basically, it works like this:

1. Before waivers runs, you put in a claim for a player you want and identify a player to drop, just like you do today --- but you ALSO specify an amount of FAAB you're willing to pay for this player (you can bid $0 and hope that no one else wants him).
2. When waivers runs, the guy who bid the most money gets the player.  The money is deducted from his FAAB.
3. If multiple owners bid the same amount for the player, then the owner who currently has the lowest seed (worst record) gets the player.  This seeding is determined by an ESPN algorithm, and we can't replace it with our own, Kubicek.
4. Once a player passes through waivers, its possible to do free add/drops without spending FAAB, just like we do currently.

My reasons for proposing this change are threefold:

1. This adds an element of strategy --- you need to budget your $100 for the whole season.
2. It also insures that the guy who wants a player the most gets him.
3. It also adds fairness, because presumably if Merrill and I each spend our full $100 FAAB over the course of the season, that means we each added $100 of value to our roster.  This isn't necessarily the case if you get stuck at the bottom of the waiver order under the current system.

So --- that's rule change proposal #1.  I'll put up a poll about it in a week or so, but first I want to give folks an opportunity to ask questions, discuss, etc.

And to be clear, I think we should adopt this change whether or not we adopt rule change #2.  However, as you'll see, this change becomes especially necessary if we DO adopt rule change #2, because free agent bidding will become much more competitive.

2018 Accounting

Yeah, yeah, Matt won.  Yay, Matt.

Now let's get down to business.  The final accounting tally is as follows:

1. AirMatt: $300 for the title, plus $30 for winning weeks 2 and 7.  Subtract $60 for 2019 dues, and his total winnings stand at $270. Paid via PayPal 12/24/2018.
2. Psychotic Ninjas: $120 for second place, plus $45 for weeks 5, 6 and 12.  Subtract $60 for 2019 dues for a total of $105.
3. Air Apparent: Wins $60 for third place and, remarkably, won zero weeks during the season.  The $60 credit will cover 2019 dues.
4. Golden Grahams: Wins in weeks 1 and 11 mean a $30 credit gets applied toward 2019 dues.
5. Suspended Atomnation: Wins in weeks 4, 9 and 15 result in a $45 credit applied to 2019 dues.
6. Orion River Horses: $15 credit thanks to his win in week 13.
7. Merrill's Marauders: Won weeks 8, 10 and 16, and so gets a credit of $45 toward 2019 dues.  Update: Remaining dues collected from Merrill's Battlin' Sweethearts winnings, so his 2019 dues are paid in full.
8. Team Harbaughs: Has a $30 credit thanks to wins in weeks 3 and 14.
9. Everyone else: Not a damn thing.

Cool!  I mean sure, it sucks that I have to pay Matt a lot of money; but there's just one payout!  Easy accounting.  I like it!

If anyone sees a mistake in my math, let me know!

Number One All the Way

After scouring the internet for literally minutes, I found the perfect photo to celebrate Matt's historic TTFFL victory.

Much as I hate my second-place finish and the way my team chose the worst possible week to lay an egg, it's really only appropriate that the title goes to Matt.  After all, he finished the season as the uncontested #1 seed, and scored the most points in league history.  It's only right that all of that ends in a title (although it's a bit ironic that ~ AirMex ~ wins their first league title with someone other than Mex at the helm).

Of course, the Ninjas' season nearly matched Matt's for points and victories.  It's only a shame we weren't able to provide a more climactic title game.  And I AM kicking myself --- in hindsight, I realize that all I needed to do to get the win was to drop Philip Rivers for Sam Darnold, and also start Sony Michel over either Tyreek Hill or Adam Thielen.

What was I thinking?!?  I'm kicking myself!

Perhaps Taylor is kicking himself too (I'm halfway tempted to kick him).  In 3 playoff weeks, he outscored Matt for all of them except the one week they actually played each other --- and Matt scored a measly 56 points.  For his consolation prize, he wins the consolation prize for the second time in a row.

As a result, Kevin's charmed season is over, and he finishes --- yet again --- agonizingly out of the money.  In the end, the Grahams' simply weren't able to overcome a rash of injuries to key players: Crowell, Ajayi, Olsen, A.J. Green and finally, at the last minute, Todd Gurley.

Fantasy football is a marathon run through a minefield.

Adam's season was a different kind of misery.  Despite scoring only 8.4 points fewer than Kevin on the season, he endured 6 more losses.  But in the end there was redemption, as he nabbed the #1 overall pick for 2019.  And since he also ended up winning more weeks than Kevin, I guess he actually has the last laugh.

The Orion River Horses finished the season with the #2 pick, which is a pretty good outcome given their 1-4 start to the season.

The Marauders' season was exquisite.  He also scored nearly as many points as Kevin, and while he didn't manage to squander them as badly as Adam, he DID manage to lose at just the right time --- including four of the final 6 of the season.  I personally am quite pleased to have beaten Merrill not once, but twice, including a delightful 95 - 92.4 win in week 12 (I had the highest score that week --- any guesses about number two?).  Any season which ends with Merrill in 7th place must be considered a victory.

The Harbaughs and Los Diablos seasons were unremarkable.  Low middle of the league for points scored, low middle of the league for seeding, low middle of the league through the playoffs --- although Los Diablos 5-game losing streak from weeks 2-6 was pretty impressive.

The Leviathans were the mirror image of the Golden Grahams.  Their regular season was a nearly-uninterrupted record of misery, with only two wins (one of them a 48.5 - 35.9 decision over the equally pathetic Screaming Eagles).  But in the same way that Kevin fell apart after his week 14 bye, Levi rose to the challenge after his to finish in 10th place, well above what his regular season justified.

And finally --- Aaron and Kapernick's Crusaders managed to avoid the ignominy of a second straight last place finish thanks to the general incompetence of Jason and his Screaming Eagles.  Jason's aforementioned puny defeat to Levi was but the midpoint in his end-of-season swoon, in which he averaged a puny 51 points per game while losing 8 of his final 9.

We'll get to end-of-season accounting later, but for now, we'll bring things to a close with next year's draft order.  And once again, congratulations to AirMex!

1. Suspended Atomnation
2. Orion River Horses
3. Merrill's Marauders
4. Team Harbaughs
5. Los Diablos
6. Leviathans
7. Strike Team/213/Lucille/Whatever Aaron decides to name his team
8. The team formerly known as the Screaming Eagles
9. Golden Grahams'
10. Air Apparent
11. Psychotic Ninjas
12. ~ AirMex ~

A Truly Historic Title Matchup

So now we know --- the title game this year features Your Esteemed Commissioner and some guy who can't be bothered to give his a team a real name.

I'd like to say there's nothing historic about that.  I'd like to say that I make the title game every year, but as I check the record books, I see that I haven't made it this far since --- 2013.  And given that this is Matt's second year in the league, this is his first TTFFL title game.

No, we know that this is a historic title game thanks to Taylor's consultants, and their exhaustive analysis which shows that AirMatt has scored the most points ever in a single TTFFL season (1149.2), while I finished a close second (1146.3).

Great.  So now I have two reasons to curse my decision to invite Matt into this league.  In addition to possibly losing a title to him, I have ALREADY lost the record for highest-scoring season in league history.

Of course, Matt doesn't get all of the credit for this record.  At least part of it needs to go to stupid Dan Bailey, who I stupidly continued to stupid start even after he stupid missed 5 stupid field goals and scored stupid single-digit points in 4 consecutive stupid weeks.  Stupid Dan Bailey.  Never trust a guy from Minnesota named Bailey.

Sorry, I digressed there.  What I'm saying is, it doesn't really matter who scored the most points in league history, and who came up short in that regard thanks to an inaccurate kicker.  What matters is, the two goliaths of the TTFFL are going to settle things on the virtual playing field this week, as it should be.

(Can I mention that I just got done playing Matt in another league?  A league where he was ALSO the top scorer for the season?  And through sheer luck, I managed to knock him out of the playoffs --- but now I have to face him AGAIN?!?

I can't?  Okay.  Well, then.  Never mind).

Meanwhile, Taylor and Kevin meet to determine third place, but we already know how this one ends up, don't we?  Taylor said it himself.  In the playoffs, Merrill and Air Apparent are toast.

The other two matchups that folks might care about include, of course, the Toilet Bowl and the battle for 2019's top pick.  Levi managed to avoid completing the worst-to-first-to-worst trifecta thanks almost exclusively to the efforts of Dalvin Cook, one of the few fantasy studs who actually delivered in week 15.  The other thing that helped him is that Aaron Rodgers sucks all of a sudden, and so only contributed 6.7 points to Aaron's total.

I kinda think that McCarthy might not have been the only problem in Green Bay.

Anyway, Aaron now has one chance to avoid the dreaded back-to-back last place finish.  Fortunately, he only has to beat up on Jason, which isn't a particularly tall order.  Jason has only cracked the 60-point barrier once in the last 7 weeks, and if you had to name his strongest player, you'd have to say 'none of the above'.  Yep, it's been rough on the Screaming Eagles since the Chiefs bounced Kareem Hunt out of the league.

The battle for the first overall pick will be waged between Adam and Pete, and should boil down to a simple question of which Atomnation team shows up.  Will it be the terrifying team who led the league in scoring in weeks 4, 9 and 15?  Or the simply terrible team who showed up in weeks 5 and 13?  Only time will tell.

Oh and --- remember that I have rule changes that I plan to put up for a vote after the season ends.  Get ready.  They're really awesome.

Semifinals week

Starting from the bottom ---

Toilet Bowl:
Fittingly enough, Levi starts the playoffs squaring off against the team he named: Kapernick's Crusaders!!!  Here he has the chance not only to avoid completing the worst-to-first-to-worst trifecta, he might also avenge the two losses Aaron hung on him during the regular season.

Or --- taking a look at his roster --- not.

Then again, when I look at Jason's roster --- man.  Kareem Hunt was the only real stud he had, and we all know how that turned out.  On the other hand, he's going up against Kubicek, so he may stand a chance.

Here's a fun Kubicek fact.  Over in the Battlin' Sweethearts league, he had Derrick Henry on his bench.  In that league, Henry scored 49 points in a game Kubicek lost by 41.  And of course we all know that Kubicek got demolished by Derrick Henry in his matchup with Team Harbaughs.  And this happened to him right after he got done gloating about how his dumb tiebreaker rule screwed me out of the #2 seed.  Coincidence?

First Pick Bowl:
Harbaughs reward for demolishing Kubicek is a playoff matchup against the Orion River Horses, who scored enough points during the regular season to grab the #6 seed, but not enough points in week 14 to sneak past a decidedly lackluster Ninja squad.

The other matchup pits Merrill against Adam, two teams that are definitely better than their records indicate --- in Adam's case, MUCH better.  Unfortunately, only one of them can advance to the contest for 2019's first-round pick.

The Real Deal:
The Ninjas seem to be catching the Golden Graham's at the right time.  Despite gaining the #2 seed under dubious circumstances, the Graham's haven't surpassed 51 points in the past 3 weeks.  The Ninjas haven't exactly been world-beaters during that time frame, but they've managed to clear the 65-point hurdle each and every week.

And finally, the other semifinal matchup pairs the #1 seed AirMatt against Air Apparent --- which might more accurately be called Air Amari, as they wouldn't be in this semifinal without Amari Cooper and his 29 points.

I bet Taylor (85.9) joins me in wishing he had played Matt (81) in week 14.  But hey, maybe lighting can strike twice!  Here's hoping!

Defense Wins Championships

Folks,

Over the years, I have hired numerous outside consultants and advisors to try to figure out a) why my team is so futile and b) how I can end the curse, just like the Cubs and Red Sox have.

Invariably, the consultants' opening briefing starts with them saying something like "we cannot stress enough" how important it is for my team to actually score more points than my opponent in the majority of weeks, and then for ALL weeks during the playoffs. This is always pretty unsatisfying news because it is sounds so elementary, and leaves me wondering what I am paying all that money for. But I will say that some of the consultants have provided some analysis that has been somewhat enlightening.

The first point, not exactly advanced stats but interesting, nonetheless, has been them helping me gain a better understanding of just how many points it takes to win one of these damn games. For the sake of this analysis, I'll focus mostly on the era dating to 2011, when we started to have 12 teams. (The fewer number of teams in the first year of the ESPN era, 2010, skews the numbers a bit and, also, 2010 is a season that I do not like to dwell on too much.) This has been an extremely consistent era for our league, as 11 owners have played all of the years. In addition, we have had the ~AirMex~ franchise, which is a little like the Philadelphia A's, turned Kansas City A's, turned Oakland A's, now owned by Matt Lindholm.

(I should note that this analysis, similar to the methodology our commissioner uses, adjusts scores by chopping off 3.5 points per game starting in 2016 to account for decimal scoring, which assumes that the decimals are worth about half a point per player.)

From 2011 until 2015, the average number of points per team per game, rounding to the nearest whole number, was stunningly consistent: 63, 63, 64, 63, and 63. In 2010, the average was 63, as well, which is a bit surprising because the fewer teams should have led to higher scoring. Things got wild in 2016 and it went all the way up to 65.  So, that is pretty remarkable consistency, and counsels in favor of figuring out a way to score about 64 points (adjusted) to have a decent chance of winning any given week. (The median score is what really matters but my consultants tell me that our median is about the same as our average.)

Now look at this. Average scoring in 2017 fell to 61.8 ppg. That was the lowest in the ESPN era by more than a full point. Even if the decimals are only worth 2.5 per game, it was still a record low.

Now, on to 2018. Let's call this "the Year of the Mahomes." Average scoring this year was ... 69 points per game! It's not entirely surprising that we broke a record given that scoring in the underlying league was way up, but this was an all-time record by almost 4 points a game when the ceiling and floor from the previous eight years differed by only 3 points a game.

Out of 96 team-seasons between 2011 and 2018 (12 teams x 8 years), here are some of the all-time rankings in average adjusted score among 2018 teams: AirMex, 1st all time; Ninjas, 2nd all time; Grahams (yes, Grahams) 8th all time; Atomonamtion (at 4-9) 13th all time; and Harbaughs, 23rd all time (and that's with starting a wide receiver or running back on injured reserve half the time!). An additional twist, AirMex and Ninjas not only scored the 1st and 2nd most all-time, but both exceeded the league average by more than any team had done in any previous year (next in line are the 2016 Ninjas, 2012 Air Apparent, 2017 Leviathans, 2013 Ninjas (again!) and 2017 Air Apparent.)

Now, as we begin the playoffs and I prepare for my team's inevitable demise, I will relay another interesting finding my consultants have reached. This relates to the fact that how many points you allow matters Exactly as much as how many points you score. We've all been vaguely aware that points allowed matters, as we have witnessed the phenomenon of Diablos slinking into the playoffs by mastering the art of 38 to 37 victories. But we probably thought that our opponents' scoring all balances out in the long run. It turns out that It Does Not. Some teams, for unexplained reasons, get a lot more points scored against them than others. Consistently.

Here are the total "Points Against" in the modern ESPN era. (actual points)

Air Apparent	7447.3
Team Harbaughs	7278.3
Merrill's Marauders	7276.6
Screaming Eagles	7227.9
Strike Team	7185.9
Psychotic Ninjas	7157.2
Los Diablos	7108.7
The Leviathans	7014.5
Golden Graham's	7013.1
Orion River Horses	6952.4
Suspended Atomnation	6927.9
~ AirMex ~	6793.7

As I suspected.

Just for the heck of it, I asked my consultant last year to run the numbers on who actually scored the most points over the years. Here are the partial results, in sort of a gold, silver, bronze scheme. (This is in actual points through 2017 only, as including 2018 sort of ruins the symmetry as compared to the chart above.)

Air Apparent	6601.7
Psychotic Ninjas	6454.1
Suspended Atomnation	6401.9

That’s more like it.

This Points Against thing turns out to matter even more than one might suspect. We all know that defense wins championships. Well, here's proof. It turns out that in every single year, our champion has given up fewer points than the league average. Like, Suspended is always up there, but it wasn't until 2016, when he didn't give up any points, that he finally broke through. Aaron is always bouncing from top to bottom (and two championships!). See a pattern below? Levi had one of the top scoring teams all time last year, but look what else -- he gave up only 58 and change a game. Since 2014, Maruaders' scoring ranks in the top 30 all time in every year but one. But he has given up top 30 points in every year since 2015. No 'ships.

The 2011 Horses only averaged 63 points a game, but that was only half the story. The 2016 Eagles scored about the same as the 11 Horses (adusted) but finished 3-10. Why? They gave up a Rich Rod-like 82 points a game! That's more than anyone ever scored per game until this gravity defying year, when Max and Ninjas eclipsed 84. The 2014 Diablos? Well, of course. And the 2010 Harbaughs? They were like the 2018 Wolverines before the Ohio State game.

Year	Champion		PA (actual)	League Ave PA (actual)
2010		Team Harbaughs	55.7	62.9
2011		Orion River Horses	60.6	63.2
2012		Strike Team	59.9	63.2
2013		Psychotic Ninjas	60.4	64.2
2014		Los Diablos	58.1	63.1
2015		Strike Team	62.9	63.1
2016		Atomnation	57.6	68.7
2017		Leviathans	58.8	65.3

What does all of this add up to as we head into the playoffs? Well, Merrill and Air Apparent have given up the most points of anyone in the playoffs, so they are toast.

Ninjas, Golden Grahams and Horses are all safely giving up less than the league average, so they are in contention.

But consider this: AirMex is giving up an adjusted 57.3 points a game. That is 11.6 points a game less than the league average. That is by far the biggest differential in the ESPN era.

That means, as compared to other teams, AirMex this year scored the all-time most and gave up the all-time fewest. Maybe he ate up all the points.

So I think we know our champion for this year. Not because of that white lightning offense but because of that Steel Curtain D.

--AA

All efforts were made to get the facts right in this post. Please direct complaints or fact-checking queries to my consultants.

Playoff Bracket Set

Hopefully this doesn't come as a surprise to anyone, but this is the final seeding of teams after the conclusion of the regular season:

1. AirMatt (11-2) Obviously, because he had the best record.
2. Golden Graham's (10-3) take the #2 seed despite scoring fewer points, thanks to Kubicek and also to the Graham's week 3 win over ---
3. Psychotic Ninjas (10-3) Get the #3 seed despite outscoring Graham's by 141 points on the season.  Who voted for this stupid rule?
4. Merrill's Marauders (7-6) take the #4 seed thanks to their week 8 win over ---
5. Air Apparent (7-6)
6. Orion River Horses (6-7) Things had the potential to get interesting here, except they didn't.  Three teams finished the regular season 6-7.  The River Horses beat Kapernick's Crusaders (once), who beat Harbaughs (twice), who beat the River Horses (once).  Since every team lost at least one game to one of the others, and since the teams didn't play an equal number of games against each other, the rule reverts back to sorting things out the way God intended, and the team with the most points on the season is the highest seed.  Thus the River Horses grab the final playoff spot.
7. Kapernick's Crusaders!!! (6-7) Once the River Horses were removed from the equation, we go back to head-to-head matchups.  The Crusaders get the #7 seed thanks to their pair of victories over ---
8. Team Harbaughs (6-7)
9. Los Diablos (5-8) are the only 5-8 team, so moving on ---
10. Atomnation (4-9) take the #10 seed, because despite breaking the 120-point mark twice and scoring the 5th-most points on the season, they only managed 4 wins.  Fortunately for them, one of those wins came against ---
11. Screaming Eagles (4-9)
12. Leviathans (2-11)

I have had to re-jigger the playoff matchups, as I do every year, because our playoff system is so bizarre ESPN refuses to acknowledge it.  In particular (as I remind folks every year), it appears the the Eagles and Leviathans play each other this week, but that is a mirage.  In actuality, they both have byes into the Toilet Bowl bracket --- but the system just can't comprehend why non-playoff teams need byes.

The usual reminders:

• In the extremely rare case of a tie score in the playoffs, the higher-seeded team is considered the winner.
• In week 15, AirMatt will play the lower-seeded winner of the quarterfinal games; Kevin will play the higher-seeded winner.  Levi will play the higher-seeded loser of the quarterfinal matchups of the 7-10 seeds, and Jason will play the lower-seeded loser.
• Weekly payouts for highest score continue through week 16, so keep setting your best lineup!

Week 12 Roundup

So --- welcome to possibly the most boring week 13 in league history.  Here are the only playoff scenarios worth discussing:

Grahams, AirMatt, Ninjas: Grahams clinch the #1 seed (and a first-round bye) with a win.  They also clinch a first-round bye with a loss if either of the other teams also lose.  AirMatt also clinches a bye with a win, or with a loss and a Ninjas loss.  And he can clinch the #1 seed with a win and a Grahams loss.  And so, logically, the Ninjas need a win and a loss for one of the other teams to clinch a first-round bye.

And again --- THREE 10-2 teams?  Are you kidding me?!?  No other team is above .500, just because the three of us have scooped up all of the wins!

Marauders, Harbaughs, Apparent, River Horses, Crusaders: River Horses and Crusaders are each out with a loss, and even with a win they need help.  Marauders, Harbaughs and Air Apparent are all in with a win, and may still make it with a loss.

Thanks to the Kubicek rule, the possible permutations of various win/loss scenarios are too many to contemplate, so I won't.

Suspended Atomnation, Los Diablos, Screaming Eagles: Okay, I think I got this.

If Los Diablos beat Screaming Eagles, then Screaming Eagles get a bye to the bottom four with Levi.

If Screaming Eagles beat Los Diablos AND Adam beats Matt (oh please, Adam, beat Matt!), then the #11 seed is determined as follows.  If Screaming Eagles win by MORE than 36.9 points, then Los Diablos are the #11 seed.  This is the outcome I'm hoping for, because it would mean that Kubicek gets the #11 seed hoist upon him by his own stupid petard of a rule change.  If Screaming Eagles win by 36.9 points or less, then Screaming Eagles are the #11 seed.

And finally, if Screaming Eagles beat Los Diablos AND Adam loses, then Adam takes the #11 seed.

Leviathans: Have earned the #12 seed, no matter what happens.

Week 11 Roundup

105 POINTS!!!

Talk about excitement!  The third-highest scoring game in NFL history!  The only game in NFL history where both teams scored more than 50!  Long bombs!  Defensive scores!  Lead changes!  It doesn't get any better than this!

The adrenaline-fueled excitement of Rams-Chiefs stands in stark contrast to the recent activity in the TTFFL, where it's been clear for about 6 weeks now that the title will be going to either the Grahams, AirMatt, or Ninjas, and we've all just been checking Facebook on our phones waiting for ESPN to tell us which one it is.

(And let's be honest, it SHOULD go to the Ninjas, who haven't won a title since 2013.  Or something like that).

I guess there's still some suspense about the final three playoff spots, but not much, and in any case I'm not one of them, so I can't be expected to care about it, can I?

Oh, all right.  Here's some stuff.

1. Golden Grahams (10-1): Finishes the season against two bottom-tier teams, Adam and the Orion River Horses.  Of course, Adam has shown a freakish ability to break 120 points despite losing routinely --- and let's face it, this is Kevin we're talking about, so a 10-3 finish to the season is almost guaranteed.
2. ~ AirMatt ~ (9-2): Finishes up against LITERALLY the two bottom teams in the league, and so is likely to win out and finish the season at 11-2.  And since he won his matchup with me, he'll get the top seed, no matter how many points he has to finish the season (thanks, Kubicek).
3. Psychotic Ninjas (9-2): Actually has to play two teams with a combined 11-11 record, and it seems that I never get to have nice things, so I have every confidence that I'll score the second-most points each of the remaining weeks and grab the 3 seed, so I'll have more opportunities to lose in the playoffs.
4. Merrill (6-5): Now things finally get interesting.  Under the old system, Merrill would pretty much have a playoff spot sewn up, since he has significantly more points than any of the 4-7 teams.  But thanks to Kubicek's rule change, and Merrill's week 7 loss to Jason, there's still a slim chance he could screw this up.
5. Team Harbaughs (6-5): Same story here.  Jody could still miss the playoffs thanks to Kubicek's rule change, given his week 2 loss to Kapernick's Crusaders.  Even better, Merrill and Jody play each other in week 13, increasing the chances that one of them will finish the season at 6-7.  Moral: Blame Kubicek.
6. Air Apparent (5-6): Taylor has now slid into his trademark late-season fade, losing four straight after going 5-2 to start the season.  I could actually see a 5-8 team making the playoffs this year, what with the Grahams, AirMatt and Ninjas scooping up all the wins, and it would be hilarious to see Taylor grab the 6 seed after finishing the regular season on a 6-game losing streak.
7. Orion River Horses, Los Diablos, Kapernick's Crusaders, Screaming Eagles (4-7): The permutations among these six teams are almost endless, and probably irrelevant if Taylor manages to win a game.  But we probably don't need to worry about that.
8. Suspended Atomnation (3-8): Gets a special mention for winning only three games despite scoring the fourth-most points in the league.  Point totals are a funny thing.  If Adam had managed to average just 3.5 more points per game, he would have more points than our current #1 seed.  Also, if you subtract his two highest scores --- good for 246 points --- he would STILL have more points than the last-place Leviathans.  I guess the only good news for Adam is that it's very unlikely he ends up with a new team name next year, and he MAY even grab the top draft pick in 2019.
9. Leviathans (2-9): Fewest points scored.  Most points against.  The lone ray of sunshine in an otherwise abysmal Leviathans season is his week 3 win over Merrill.  Which, I'm sure we can all agree, is cause for celebration.  And personally, I wouldn't shed a tear if he somehow managed to score the upset over Matt this weekend.

Week 8 Roundup

What, you expected regular updates or something?  I been busy, man.

Anyway, let's see what's happening in the league this year ---

• It's official!  In just his second season in the league, ~Mex (8-0) has set a league record for most consecutive wins to start the season.  If he beats Kevin this week, he will clinch a playoff spot, open up a 2-game lead for first place, and match the record of longest winning streak ever --- set back in 2012 by some team called the Psychotic Ninjas (remember that season?  I'll never forget it.  I went 0-5 to start the season, won the final 9 games to grab the #1 seed, and promptly lost both playoff games to finish the season out of the money.  Good times).
• Golden Grahams (7-1) are actually fielding a competitive team this year, which begs the obvious question: Who are you, and what have you done with Kevin?  But seriously, I'm rooting for Kevin to whoop up on Matt this week, partly because I want to keep the record for league's longest win streak, but mostly because I just enjoy it when Matt loses.
• Psychotic Ninjas (6-2) I had to play Matt last week without my QB or my RB1.  Insert complaining noises here.
• Air Apparent (5-3) Hands up, everyone who would have predicted back in August that a team starting James Conner, Phillip Lindsay, Chris Godwin, Josh Gordon and Kenny Golladay would have a winning record.  Anyone?  Anyone?  Bueller?
• Merrill's Marauders (4-4) Hands up, everyone who would have predicted back in August that a team with DeShaun Watson, Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Odell Beckham, Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen would be struggling to break .500.  Anyone?  Anyone?  And how in hell did we let Merrill get this much talent on his roster, anyway?  We all suck at drafting.
• Kapernick's Crusaders! (4-4) Aaron Rodgers, Chris Carson and Demaryius Thomas all have the potential to be top players at their positions the back half of the season, making the Crusaders a possible dark horse down the line.  Especially Thomas.  DeShaun Watson is a bit of an upgrade over Case Keenum, ya think?
• Orion River Horses (3-5) Hands up, everyone who would have predicted back in August that a team with Russell Wilson, Jordan Howard, Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Evans, the Vikings DST and Justin Tucker would be 3-5.  No, keep 'em up, I want to get a good count.
• Team Harbaughs (3-5) The bad news: Jody has lost 4 of his last 5 games.  The good news: He's playing the Trumbores in back-to-back weeks!  That's always a good cure for what ails ya!
• Screaming Eagles (3-5) The good news: Jason has Kareem Hunt, got an unexpected bargain with Adrian Peterson, and has fantasy's #1 kicker, Stephen Gostkowski!  The bad news: For some reason, he's still rostering Ryan Grant, DeVante Parker, Josh Doctson, and Devonta Freeman, who went on IR three weeks ago.  Interesting strategy.
• Los Diablos (3-5) Have had one winning season since they claimed the title back in 2014, and are once again mired in mediocrity.  Looking over the misery that is his roster, I see Kirk Cousins, Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas --- and a whole lot of players who easily rank in the top 30 (or 40) at their positions.
• Suspended Atomnation (1-7) It's not surprising Adam has two fewer wins than Kubicek, given that his roster is even more devoid of talent.  Matt Ryan and Alvin Kamara are the only quality players he has, and I've heard they're both demanding a trade.  It would appear that the major mistake Adam made was to score more than 20% of his points for the season in week 4, when he put up 126 points to notch his only win.
• Leviathans (1-7) Last year, Levi pulled of an impressive worst-to-first turnaround to claim the title.  Not content to rest on his laurels, he seems intent on on being the first team in TTFFL history to pull off the mythical worst-to-first-to-worst triple axel.  Dalvin Cook, Delanie Walker, Jamison Crowder and Greg Zuerlein are only too happy to help.

~Mex, Kevin and YEC would have to struggle mightily to avoid the playoffs at this point, while Adam and Levi would need to pay someone a lot of money to make it in (send me a private email, guys).  So the real excitement these last five weeks will be seeing which of the teams between Taylor and Kubicek manage to claim the final three playoff spots.

Good luck guys.  Except not any week when you happen to be playing me, obviously.

Saal Good, Man

Coming in just under the wire, Adam was the last one to pay his dues for the TTFFL season, and not a minute too soon.  If I hadn't received payment today, then by rule, Adam would have dropped to the #4 pick in the draft, and Pete would have moved up to #3.

But upon receiving Adam's check (in the mail --- he didn't even play it safe and slide in a last-minute PayPal payment), the draft order will remain as it is.  And Adam was nice enough to include a friendly note for Pete along with his check:

And with that, I look forward to virtually seeing all of you Wednesday night!

(I also look forward to seeing virtually all of you Wednesday night).

Let's Try This Again

I am pleasantly surprised that no one in the league seems all that desperate to collect their money.  I know that you're not that desperate, because in the 18 days since I first posted accounting info for the two leagues, exactly two of you have told me how I can go about paying you.

On the other hand, I did half-ass this pretty hard.  So, let's see if I can fully ass it.  I'm going to post combined accounting amounts for both leagues to this page, which covers everyone but Jennifer and Shawn from Battlin' Sweethearts (I'll communicate with them via email).

SO --- I'm going to hold back money for next year's league dues where appropriate, and do my best to pay out any excess.  With that in mind, here's the money I owe everyone, from most to least:

• Levi: $345 total (TTFFL title, high score in weeks 3, 4 and 5), minus $60 for 2018 league dues equals $285 owed. - Check mailed 2/10/2018.
• Merrill: $240 total (Battlin' Sweethearts runner-up, TTFFL runner-up, high score in weeks 6, 13 and 15), minus $110 for 2018 league dues for himself and Brandy equals $130 owed. - Check mailed 2/10/2018.
• Taylor: $135 total (TTFFL 3rd place, high score in weeks 7, 8, 10, 11 and 16), minus $60 for 2018 league dues equals $75 owed - Check mailed 1/29/2018.
• Aaron: $150 total (Battlin' Sweethearts title), minus $110 for 2018 dues for himself and Anne equals $40 owed. - Check mailed 1/26/2018.
• Adam: $30 total (high score in weeks 2 and 14), which will be applied as a credit toward 2018 league dues.
• Matt: $15 total (high score in week 1) --- paid via PayPal 1/17/2018.
• Kubicek: $15 total (high score in week 9). will be applied as a credit toward 2018 league dues.
• Kevin: $15 total (high score in week 12), will be applied as a credit toward 2018 league dues.

And that's it.  So, I would like to make payment to Levi, Merrill and Taylor, since I don't really have a good way to carry over more money from one year to the next beyond league dues.  As a reminder, I can now make payment via PayPal as well as by check.

And if anyone would like to receive actual money instead of credit toward next year's league dues, let me know.

And with that --- we bid a fond farewell to the 2017 fantasy football season.

2017 Accounting

It just occurred to me that the folks who won money this year are probably interested in receiving it.  So I thought I should probably sit down and figure out what everybody has won.  Someone check my math:

• Levi: $300 for winning the title, plus $45 for highest score weeks 3, 4 and 5.  $345 total.
• Merrill: $120 for second place, plus $45 for weeks 6, 13 and 15.  $165 total.
• Taylor: $60 for third place, plus $75 for weeks 7, 8, 10, 11 and 16.  Wow, that's a lot of weekly high scores!  $135 total.
• Adam: $30 for weeks 2 and 14.
• Matt: $15 for week 1. --- Paid, 1/17/2018
• Kubicek: $15 for week 9.
• Kevin: $15 for week 12.

And I have some good news!  I've decided to move into the 21st century, and I can now make your payments via PayPal!  So if you would like to receive your money via PayPal, just drop me an email letting me know what email address you use for PayPal payment.  Otherwise, you can just let me know your mailing address, and I'll send you a check.

I'll let this ferment for a week, just in case someone thinks I made a mistake computing this, and I'll start sending the payments out after the Vikings beat the Saints next week.

(And if the Vikings DON'T beat the Saints?  That's crazy talk!)