Title Week Preview?

The past two weeks in the TTFFL have seen some interesting trades.  As a result, the only two remaining unbeatens have some pretty stacked rosters.  And if this trend continues, consider the possibility of this title game matchup:

	Merrill's Marauders	Psychotic Ninjas
QB	Russell Wilson	Lamar Jackson
RB	Christian McCaffrey	Saquon Barkley
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	David Johnson
WR	T.Y. Hilton	Mike Evans
WR	Cooper Kupp	Tyler Lockett
TE	Mark Andrews	George Kittle
Flex	Melvin Gordon	Kareem Hunt
DST	Steelers	Rams
K	Who	Cares?

Now obviously, this won't happen.  Because one of us will have his team decimated by injuries over the next three weeks.  And the other one will finish the season as the #1 seed, crush their opponent in the semifinals, and then inexplicably put up about 23 points in the title game.

But still.  It's a pretty stunning possibility to comtemplate.

Allow me to introduce --- the Craptastics!!!

Matt has decided that Jason will play the 2019 season under the team name The Craptastics.  And Jason's new avatar is pretty much what you would expect:

This should give Jason added motivation in weeks 1 and 13.  Congrats, Jason!  You earned it!

FAABulous!!!

I am pleased to report that common sense prevailed in the voting for our recent rule change proposal:

So --- that's that.

As far as other proposed rule changes are concerned (and there were several: superflex, changes to QB scoring, PPR scoring, an additional RB/WR/TE flex), I'm not inclined to put any of them up for a vote, because there seems to be substantial opposition to all of them.

On the other hand, if anyone else would LIKE to have a vote on these or any other rule changes, I'm happy to put them out there.  Drop me a line and let me know.

Otherwise, this closes the door on the 2018 season.  Unless another rule change is proposed, I'll (virtually) see you all next year!

Waiting in Line Sucks

Clearly under the influence of some kind of mind-altering chemicals, Adam had this to say about our waiver system:

If it's not broke, don't fix it.  Waiver system has worked fine for years.

At least one other owner has seconded this notion, and after pondering things for a couple of days, there really seems to be only one reasonable response:

Of course, it's possible that this is just a simple difference of opinion.  So I decided to do a scientific test recently.

My daughter is in the 10th grade, and is on her high school dance team.  Next weekend, they're holding their invitational dance meet, which is their major fundraiser for the year.  As part of the dance meet, they're holding a blind auction of various goods and services.

So, during the planning of this event, I went to the moms in charge (it's a dance team; of COURSE the ones in charge are the moms), and I proposed handling the auction a different way.  I suggested that everyone who wanted one of the auction items should stand in a long line, and then we would randomly choose one of the auction items and give it to the first person in line.

Of course, that person might not want it, and if they didn't, they could offer it to the next person in line --- and if they didn't want it, they could offer it to the next person, and so on.  As soon as someone decided they wanted an item, they would have to go to the back of the line before we brought the next item out.

Also, we wouldn't tell anyone what the items were ahead of time.  That way, when people were deciding whether or not to keep an item, they would have no way of knowing whether something better was available.  I explained that while this wasn't really an 'auction', at least this approach still included the 'blind' element.

I assured all of the moms in charge that this was, indeed, the fairest and best way to run the blind auction --- but the moms weren't buying it.

So, I tried my best, I really did.  But it still seems pretty obvious to me that FAAB is the better way to handle waivers.  I do agree with Adam on one point, though.  Since auction is the best way to handle waivers, we should also be using auction for our draft as well.  But I know better than to propose an auction draft to this league.

Anyway, just because we draft the wrong way doesn't mean we need to handle waivers the wrong way!  Heed the wisdom of the dance moms!

(Full disclosure: I lied about the dance moms.  I didn't suggest handling the blind auction differently, because I didn't even go to the planning meeting.  I went last year, and I know that they really don't want me to participate in the planning; they just want me to show up to the invitational and sell stuff.)

If my compelling and made-up dance moms story hasn't persuaded you, then go back and read my original essay championing the rule change, because I think I made some good points there.  Then go vote for the rule change!

http://games.espn.com/ffl/leagueoffice?leagueId=303219

Remember: The only real change is that when you put in a waiver claim, you would also include a dollar amount (which can be $0), and the decision about who gets a player is based on who bid the most, and not who happens to be first in line that week.  Nothing else would change.

One thing I didn't lie about is the dance invitational on January 12.  I really will be at the high school helping out most of the day.  So let's say this poll closes at 9:00 PM EST on January 12.

P.S. Wondering about other rule changes, like scoring and superflex?  Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about them.  Just wanted to start cleaning up the discussion a bit.

P.P.S. One other angle I considered for pitching FAAB is that our current waiver process makes us wait in line, like they did in the old Soviet Union under communism.  So I was going to make outlandish charges about Adam hating America and so forth, and say that our current waiver system is 'slavic', but it didn't really feel organic.  But if it helps you decide to vote for FAAB, then great!

Harbinger of the Zombie Apocalypse

In response to my recent proposal that we adopt the superflex rule, Kevin had this to say:

Dont really like this one. I would counter propose that we reduce QB TD passes from 6pts to 4pts. In fact this is the only league I've been in where the QB gets that many points making their value so much more than everyone else. 

Under your rule any team that has 2 good QB's would have that much of an advantage over everyone else. In fact QB's would be selected by everyone in the first 2 rounds in my estimation. 

And then on a bye week you're basically screwed unless you have 3 QB's to compensate.
By lowering the TD points everything evens out giving more value to RB's and WR's. 

Also not opposed to going to a PPR league.

To which Merrill replied:

Hate to say it, but I agree with Graham on both points.

To repeat: Merrill and Kevin agree on something!  Which can of course mean only one thing:

Uh.

Well, okay, maybe it could mean one of TWO things.  EITHER the Zombie Apocalypse is imminent, OR they're on to something.

Assuming it's the latter --- I agree with them, too.  Or more specifically, I agree that our scoring system has a bias toward QBs, and that we should address that imbalance before moving to superflex. It also weights TDs too much relative to yardage.

I'm sure it will surprise no one that I have specific responses to the concerns Kevin raised, and that I still think we should adopt the superflex rule.  But just like the FAAB rule (remember that one?  People seem to like that one), we should fix our scoring wheether or not we ultimately adopt superflex.

So here are two separate scoring systems we could adopt.  One is less aggressive, one more so (and preferrable, in my opinion).

Option 1 (yardage undervalued)

1. Change the value of passing TDs from 6 points to 4 points
2. Add 0.25 points per reception for RBs
3. Add 0.5 point per reception for WRs
4. Add 0.75 points per reception for TEs

Option 2 (yardage properly valued)

1. Double the points for all yardage scoring (0.04 points per passing yard, 0.1 points per rushing/receiving yard --- this is double how we score things currently).
2. Change the value of passing TDs from 6 points to 4 points
3. Add 0.5 points per reception for RBs
4. Add 1 point per reception for WRs
5. Add 1.5 points per reception for TEs

I'm sure the fractional PPR points will catch everyone's attention.  And if folks would prefer that all receptions are 1 pt, that's fine.  The thinking here is that giving a full point to RBs unbalances that position for players like Christian McCaffrey; at the same time, giving TEs 1.5 points per reception makes TEs in general a more desirable position (although it also makes Kelce, Kittle and Ertz even more valuable than they are already).

My big concern is that we DON'T go full PPR without also adjusting or scoring for yardage.  If we went full PPR under our current scoring system, yardage scoring would almost be irrelevant.

I'm just throwing this out for discussion.

Rule Change 2: Superflex

I am proposing that we adopt the superflex rule: Instead of limiting the flex position to only RB or WR, we will allow players from any offensive position, including TE and QB.

Why?  Well, consider the following facts:

1. This year, Patrick Mahomes was the #1 QB, and it wasn't close.  On the season, under our scoring system, he outscored the #2 QB (Matt Ryan?) by 91 points.
2. At the same time, the difference between Ryan and the #15 QB (Dak Prescott) was also basically 91 points.
3. This means that, in a given week, unless you had Mahomes as your starter, it didn't really matter who your QB was.  You could reasonably expect that your QB would score within 1-2 points of your opponent's QB.

I'm too lazy to do the research on previous seasons, but this year is fairly typical.  Every year there's one (or two, or three) QBs who outscore the rest of the field by a substantial margin, and after that, the next 10-12 are all pretty much the same.  Since we're a 12-team league and we only start 1 QB, that means that unless you're lucky enough to draft a stud, the QB position is irrelevant.

I also notice that practically everyone drafts 2 QBs, presumably to have a backup in place for the bye week, or in case of injury.  But for the most part, a randomly-selected QB out of the waiver pool can do as well on a one-week fill-in basis as any QB you draft as your backup.  This year, for example, you could have picked up Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Nick Mullens depending on the week, and they would have done just fine for you.  So consequently, the standard league practice of drafting 2 QBs means that your backup QB is dead weight on your roster for most of the season.  Also, it means if you have 2 really good QBs (Kevin had both Luck and Goff, for example), you can't ever trade the backup, because no one else isn't willing to give up anything for a small improvement at QB.

(Okay, Adam traded away Roethlisberger, but such trades are really rare).

The bottom line is, we should consider doing something to make the QB position more interesting.  And the obvious solution is superflex.

If we adopt this rule, the QB position becomes much more interesting.  Since it will now be possible to start 2 QBs in a week:

1. QBs become a much hotter commodity in the draft, because if you manage to land TWO of the stud QBs, it gives you a huge edge.  In turn, this will mean that stud players at other positions will be available in later rounds, making the whole draft more interesting.
2. With only 1 starting QB, it doesn't much matter who your QB is, since there's not a lot of difference between the QB4 and the QB15.  When we can start 2 QBs, suddenly there's lots of competition to get ANY starting QB --- even a player like Josh Johnson can be worthy of a waiver pickup.
3. Because QBs will be in higher demand, there is likely to be more trade activity involving the QB position.  Would you trade Chris Carson for Ryan Fitzpatrick?  Suddenly that's not a stupid question.
4. Bye weeks become more challenging (and hopefully more fascinating).

I want to particularly emphasize how much this rule change will affect the draft.  This year, we drafted 21 QBs in the first 11 rounds.  If we adopt this rule, I anticipate that 21 QBs will go in roughly the first 5 rounds.  This is why I wanted to propose this rule change well before next year's draft.

Also, I shouldn't undersell the additional value this would give to the TE position.  Maybe you try to corner the market on TE with Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz?  Neither of those guys is going to score as much on a weekly basis as someone like Alex Smith (should he return), but it would be a nice double-threat when one of your QBs is on bye, or in case of a QB injury.

My thought is that we would simply change our existing flex spot to a superflex, but I'm open to the possibility of adding a superflex position to our starting lineup (and reducing bench size to 8 players, so we still have an 18 round draft).

As with the previous proposal, I'm not planning to schedule a vote on this change any time soon.  Instead, I'll give everyone time to ponder, discuss, question, etc.

(Footnote: This rule change has been a long time coming.  Does everyone remember my ill-fated attempt to eliminate the kicker position 5 years ago [yes, it has been five years]?  That was the first step of a two-step plan I had, to eliminate the kicker and replace it with a superflex.

When all of you inexplicably told me how much you loved the kicker position, it foiled my plans.  And it's taken me this long to take another stab at it).

Rule Change 1: A FAABulous Way to Pick Up Free Agents

Okay, so.

You know how sometimes a REALLY GOOD free agent running back will pop up during the season?  And maybe it just so happens that you REALLY NEED a running back, but it also just so happens that you're at the bottom of the waiver order?  So stupid Merrill gets the really good running back, even though he already has THREE of them on his roster?

And not only that, but --- you're SO desperate at running back that you put in a waiver claim for some other guy who's only kind of good, so you're still at the bottom of the waiver order next week when another REALLY GOOD running back pops up?

Yeah.  That sucks, right?

I propose that we change the way we handle waivers.  I propose we move to blind-auction bidding on free agents, where everyone bids using a $100 Free Agent Acquisition Budget (otherwise known as FAAB --- not real money) for the whole season.  I'm guessing most of you are familiar with this process from other leagues, but for those who aren't, basically, it works like this:

1. Before waivers runs, you put in a claim for a player you want and identify a player to drop, just like you do today --- but you ALSO specify an amount of FAAB you're willing to pay for this player (you can bid $0 and hope that no one else wants him).
2. When waivers runs, the guy who bid the most money gets the player.  The money is deducted from his FAAB.
3. If multiple owners bid the same amount for the player, then the owner who currently has the lowest seed (worst record) gets the player.  This seeding is determined by an ESPN algorithm, and we can't replace it with our own, Kubicek.
4. Once a player passes through waivers, its possible to do free add/drops without spending FAAB, just like we do currently.

My reasons for proposing this change are threefold:

1. This adds an element of strategy --- you need to budget your $100 for the whole season.
2. It also insures that the guy who wants a player the most gets him.
3. It also adds fairness, because presumably if Merrill and I each spend our full $100 FAAB over the course of the season, that means we each added $100 of value to our roster.  This isn't necessarily the case if you get stuck at the bottom of the waiver order under the current system.

So --- that's rule change proposal #1.  I'll put up a poll about it in a week or so, but first I want to give folks an opportunity to ask questions, discuss, etc.

And to be clear, I think we should adopt this change whether or not we adopt rule change #2.  However, as you'll see, this change becomes especially necessary if we DO adopt rule change #2, because free agent bidding will become much more competitive.

2018 Accounting

Yeah, yeah, Matt won.  Yay, Matt.

Now let's get down to business.  The final accounting tally is as follows:

1. AirMatt: $300 for the title, plus $30 for winning weeks 2 and 7.  Subtract $60 for 2019 dues, and his total winnings stand at $270. Paid via PayPal 12/24/2018.
2. Psychotic Ninjas: $120 for second place, plus $45 for weeks 5, 6 and 12.  Subtract $60 for 2019 dues for a total of $105.
3. Air Apparent: Wins $60 for third place and, remarkably, won zero weeks during the season.  The $60 credit will cover 2019 dues.
4. Golden Grahams: Wins in weeks 1 and 11 mean a $30 credit gets applied toward 2019 dues.
5. Suspended Atomnation: Wins in weeks 4, 9 and 15 result in a $45 credit applied to 2019 dues.
6. Orion River Horses: $15 credit thanks to his win in week 13.
7. Merrill's Marauders: Won weeks 8, 10 and 16, and so gets a credit of $45 toward 2019 dues.  Update: Remaining dues collected from Merrill's Battlin' Sweethearts winnings, so his 2019 dues are paid in full.
8. Team Harbaughs: Has a $30 credit thanks to wins in weeks 3 and 14.
9. Everyone else: Not a damn thing.

Cool!  I mean sure, it sucks that I have to pay Matt a lot of money; but there's just one payout!  Easy accounting.  I like it!

If anyone sees a mistake in my math, let me know!

Number One All the Way

After scouring the internet for literally minutes, I found the perfect photo to celebrate Matt's historic TTFFL victory.

Much as I hate my second-place finish and the way my team chose the worst possible week to lay an egg, it's really only appropriate that the title goes to Matt.  After all, he finished the season as the uncontested #1 seed, and scored the most points in league history.  It's only right that all of that ends in a title (although it's a bit ironic that ~ AirMex ~ wins their first league title with someone other than Mex at the helm).

Of course, the Ninjas' season nearly matched Matt's for points and victories.  It's only a shame we weren't able to provide a more climactic title game.  And I AM kicking myself --- in hindsight, I realize that all I needed to do to get the win was to drop Philip Rivers for Sam Darnold, and also start Sony Michel over either Tyreek Hill or Adam Thielen.

What was I thinking?!?  I'm kicking myself!

Perhaps Taylor is kicking himself too (I'm halfway tempted to kick him).  In 3 playoff weeks, he outscored Matt for all of them except the one week they actually played each other --- and Matt scored a measly 56 points.  For his consolation prize, he wins the consolation prize for the second time in a row.

As a result, Kevin's charmed season is over, and he finishes --- yet again --- agonizingly out of the money.  In the end, the Grahams' simply weren't able to overcome a rash of injuries to key players: Crowell, Ajayi, Olsen, A.J. Green and finally, at the last minute, Todd Gurley.

Fantasy football is a marathon run through a minefield.

Adam's season was a different kind of misery.  Despite scoring only 8.4 points fewer than Kevin on the season, he endured 6 more losses.  But in the end there was redemption, as he nabbed the #1 overall pick for 2019.  And since he also ended up winning more weeks than Kevin, I guess he actually has the last laugh.

The Orion River Horses finished the season with the #2 pick, which is a pretty good outcome given their 1-4 start to the season.

The Marauders' season was exquisite.  He also scored nearly as many points as Kevin, and while he didn't manage to squander them as badly as Adam, he DID manage to lose at just the right time --- including four of the final 6 of the season.  I personally am quite pleased to have beaten Merrill not once, but twice, including a delightful 95 - 92.4 win in week 12 (I had the highest score that week --- any guesses about number two?).  Any season which ends with Merrill in 7th place must be considered a victory.

The Harbaughs and Los Diablos seasons were unremarkable.  Low middle of the league for points scored, low middle of the league for seeding, low middle of the league through the playoffs --- although Los Diablos 5-game losing streak from weeks 2-6 was pretty impressive.

The Leviathans were the mirror image of the Golden Grahams.  Their regular season was a nearly-uninterrupted record of misery, with only two wins (one of them a 48.5 - 35.9 decision over the equally pathetic Screaming Eagles).  But in the same way that Kevin fell apart after his week 14 bye, Levi rose to the challenge after his to finish in 10th place, well above what his regular season justified.

And finally --- Aaron and Kapernick's Crusaders managed to avoid the ignominy of a second straight last place finish thanks to the general incompetence of Jason and his Screaming Eagles.  Jason's aforementioned puny defeat to Levi was but the midpoint in his end-of-season swoon, in which he averaged a puny 51 points per game while losing 8 of his final 9.

We'll get to end-of-season accounting later, but for now, we'll bring things to a close with next year's draft order.  And once again, congratulations to AirMex!

1. Suspended Atomnation
2. Orion River Horses
3. Merrill's Marauders
4. Team Harbaughs
5. Los Diablos
6. Leviathans
7. Strike Team/213/Lucille/Whatever Aaron decides to name his team
8. The team formerly known as the Screaming Eagles
9. Golden Grahams'
10. Air Apparent
11. Psychotic Ninjas
12. ~ AirMex ~

A Truly Historic Title Matchup

So now we know --- the title game this year features Your Esteemed Commissioner and some guy who can't be bothered to give his a team a real name.

I'd like to say there's nothing historic about that.  I'd like to say that I make the title game every year, but as I check the record books, I see that I haven't made it this far since --- 2013.  And given that this is Matt's second year in the league, this is his first TTFFL title game.

No, we know that this is a historic title game thanks to Taylor's consultants, and their exhaustive analysis which shows that AirMatt has scored the most points ever in a single TTFFL season (1149.2), while I finished a close second (1146.3).

Great.  So now I have two reasons to curse my decision to invite Matt into this league.  In addition to possibly losing a title to him, I have ALREADY lost the record for highest-scoring season in league history.

Of course, Matt doesn't get all of the credit for this record.  At least part of it needs to go to stupid Dan Bailey, who I stupidly continued to stupid start even after he stupid missed 5 stupid field goals and scored stupid single-digit points in 4 consecutive stupid weeks.  Stupid Dan Bailey.  Never trust a guy from Minnesota named Bailey.

Sorry, I digressed there.  What I'm saying is, it doesn't really matter who scored the most points in league history, and who came up short in that regard thanks to an inaccurate kicker.  What matters is, the two goliaths of the TTFFL are going to settle things on the virtual playing field this week, as it should be.

(Can I mention that I just got done playing Matt in another league?  A league where he was ALSO the top scorer for the season?  And through sheer luck, I managed to knock him out of the playoffs --- but now I have to face him AGAIN?!?

I can't?  Okay.  Well, then.  Never mind).

Meanwhile, Taylor and Kevin meet to determine third place, but we already know how this one ends up, don't we?  Taylor said it himself.  In the playoffs, Merrill and Air Apparent are toast.

The other two matchups that folks might care about include, of course, the Toilet Bowl and the battle for 2019's top pick.  Levi managed to avoid completing the worst-to-first-to-worst trifecta thanks almost exclusively to the efforts of Dalvin Cook, one of the few fantasy studs who actually delivered in week 15.  The other thing that helped him is that Aaron Rodgers sucks all of a sudden, and so only contributed 6.7 points to Aaron's total.

I kinda think that McCarthy might not have been the only problem in Green Bay.

Anyway, Aaron now has one chance to avoid the dreaded back-to-back last place finish.  Fortunately, he only has to beat up on Jason, which isn't a particularly tall order.  Jason has only cracked the 60-point barrier once in the last 7 weeks, and if you had to name his strongest player, you'd have to say 'none of the above'.  Yep, it's been rough on the Screaming Eagles since the Chiefs bounced Kareem Hunt out of the league.

The battle for the first overall pick will be waged between Adam and Pete, and should boil down to a simple question of which Atomnation team shows up.  Will it be the terrifying team who led the league in scoring in weeks 4, 9 and 15?  Or the simply terrible team who showed up in weeks 5 and 13?  Only time will tell.

Oh and --- remember that I have rule changes that I plan to put up for a vote after the season ends.  Get ready.  They're really awesome.