Hail to the Moist Spots!!!

Moist Dermatitis is a skin condition in dogs.

In my 9 years in the TTFFL, I have seen a lot of amazing things.  Like a newbie winning the title in each of his first 3 years in the league (I forget which owner did that).  But Aaron has accomplished something that even the amazing Psychotic Ninjas have never accomplished --- and never will!  He won the league title one year after finishing in last place, and having his team ignominiously renamed to The Moist Spots.

Well done, Aaron.

This is a fitting end to what has probably been the craziest season of fantasy football I've ever played.  I've already pointed out the high degree of roster turnover among the league's best teams, partly due to injuries (Andrew Luck, Marshawn Lynch, LeVeon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Dez Bryant, Peyton Manning --- the list goes on and on), and partly due to outright sucking (C.J. Anderson, DeMarco Murray, Demariyus Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Hill, Randall Cobb, Peyton Manning --- the list goes on and on).  But another thing I've noticed is how easily the season could have ended differently.  Just about every team in the league could have claimed the title with just one or two different decisions.

The Moist Spots are the champs, of course, but Mex would have pulled it out if Antonio Brown and Ted Ginn played in week 16 (combined total of 3 points) a little more like they did in week 15 (37 points).  Similarly, Adam would have taken the championship easily if he had made it to the title game, which he would have done if he had picked Teddy Bridgewater off of waivers and played him in the semifinal round instead of T.J. Yates.

Continuing on down the line, the only thing that kept the River Horses out of the title game was the fact that he sucked really, really badly in the semifinal game --- Mex nearly doubled his score --- and then continued his powerful sucking into the final round.  Hey, I said 'just about every team' could have claimed the title --- not ALL of them.

But consider the 5th-place Golden Graham's.  They would have won the title had they made it to the title game, and would have won in the semifinals against Aaron if he had made it into the playoffs as the #4 seed.  So the only thing keeping the title out of Kevin's hands is the fact that he started DeAndre Hopkins in week 14 instead of Michael Floyd.  So cheer up, Kevin! You were only one bad decision away from the title!

And lest anyone think I'm picking on Kevin, the same holds true for your esteemed commissioner, who only missed the playoffs by starting Vincent Jackson over Allen Hurns and Tyler Lockett in week 14.  Of course, it also would have helped if Thomas Rawls hadn't gotten hurt, or Vincent Jackson hadn't gotten hurt, or if Cam Newton threw a TD to Greg Olsen once in a while, or if the Dolphins gave Lamar Miller more than five freakin' carries in the second half of their game against the Giants, after he rushed for more than 7 YPC with two touchdowns in the first half.

If any one of those things had just gone slightly differently, I would be claiming my fifth title right now.  Not that I'm bitter.  And since Jason decided to have his one good game of the year last week, when I posted my highest point total, it has now been exactly two years since I won a damn thing in this league.  Again, not that I'm bitter.

It looks like Levi really wasn't that close to claiming the title.  Like father, like son, I guess.  Merrill wouldn't have won the title, but could have finished second if not for a run of bad luck in weeks 11-13, when he lost by 6, 5 and 3 points.  Jody probably could have managed a better finish than 6-8, maybe.  And Taylor, Kubicek and Jason certainly could have been more competitive if they had paid someone to draft for them.

At any rate, congratulations once again to The Moist Spots.  I look forward to finding out what name he'll give to Taylor for his team next year.  And speaking of next year, the draft order will be:

1. Golden Graham's
2. Psychotic Ninjas
3. Leviathans
4. Merrill's Marauders
5. Screaming Eagles
6. Los Diablos
7. Team Harbaughs
8. The Team Formerly Known as Air Apparent
9. Orion River Horses
10. Suspended Atomnation
11. ~AirMex~
12. The Moist Spots (or Strike Team, or . . . ?)

Moist or Mex?

You don't want to know what I found when I Googled for 'Mexican Moist Spots'

This year has the potential to be a first in the TTFFL (at least in the modern era, which began in 2007).  If Aaron and his Moist Spots defeat Mex next week, he will have accomplished the league's first-ever worst-to-first finish from one year to the next.

The matchup promises to be a thriller, as Aaron and Mex were two of FIVE teams to score 87 or more points last week --- a stunning display of fireworks.  If history is any guide, the championship will likely be a 23-21 defensive battle.

In the other brackets, the Ninjas and Graham's --- two of the other high scorers this week --- will duke it out for next year's #1 overall pick, and in the upset of the weekend, Jason (with a mind-boggling high score of 106 points this week) and Kubicek both avoided the toilet bowl, which will feature Taylor against Jody --- who has a chance to finish last for the third time in the last 4 years.

When all of the fireworks is over --- sometime around New Year's Eve --- watch this space for a typically wordy discussion of possible rule changes for 2016.

Playoff Matchups

Just a quick hit here --- I guess Pete really showed me with his resounding 73-46 victory over Jason.  I guess I reverse-jinxed him.  So, in that spirit, I bet Kubicek is going to beat the living daylights out of Taylor this weekend!

Anyway, congratulations to this year's playoff qualifiers, The Moist Spots, River Horses, Mex and Suspended Atomnation!

Moving on down, one of these teams will get the first overall pick in next year's draft: Golden Graham's, Psychotic Ninjas, Leviathans and (*sigh*) Merrill.

And one of *these* teams will be playing with a different name next year: Team Harbaughs, Air Apparent, Los Diablos and Screaming Eagles.

Remember, if any playoff game ends in a tie, the higher-seeded team is declared the winner.  I had to rearrange playoff matchups a bit to make sure the correct teams were playing each other --- I don't know whether the system might have sent out a notification of some sort.

Good luck, everyone!

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

What are the ingredients for success in fantasy football?

Some of the things are obvious (prepare for your draft), and some are more subtle (mind your position on the waiver wire).  Most are directly related to the game of football (pay attention to all the games and each player's performance), but some are more arcane (you can't be named "Taylor" or "Merrill").

Over the weekend, I noticed a startling fact about the teams in our league.  There has been a LOT of waiver wire activity, but some teams have definitely made more use of the waiver wire than others.  In fact, four teams in the league have more than *HALF* of their rosters pulled from the waiver wire:

1. Supended Atomnation: 14 waiver-wire players
2. ~ Airmex ~: 12
3. The Moist Spots: 11
4. Psychotic Ninjas: 10

Is it just a coincidence that these are four of the top 6 teams in the league (another top-6 team, the River Horses, has 8 waiver-wire players)?  Does it mean that these owners are better at spotting hot prospects than the rest of the league, or does it just mean they're more proactive team managers?  Or maybe, does it just mean that they suck at drafting?

Of course, a lot of waiver wire activity doesn't necessarily guarantee success.  Take Taylor, for example, with his 8 waiver wire adds.

Whatever it takes to succeed, I guess.  I have to admit, I was getting a bit nervous last night as I watched Matt Cassel consistently NOT throw the ball to Dez Bryant.  If Bryant had put up a doughnut, I still would have tied with Merrill, but it probably would have ended my season, and that would have been an especially crappy way to go --- with my brilliant early-season trade for Bryant dooming me.

And really, who wants their fantasy season to end with a tie?  No one.  Am I right, Mex?

Fortunately, that didn't happen.  Unfortunately, I'm still on the outside looking in as far as playoffs are concerned.  The season-ending playoff scenarios are as follows:

The Moist Spots fell to the River Horses last week, but it doesn't really matter.  Aaron could probably bench all of his players next week, take the loss and the zero, and he would still get in unless Pete scores 124 and I score 126.  In other words, congratulations on clinching a playoff spot, Aaron.

Suspended Atomnation will clinch a playoff spot with a win OR losses by two out of Golden Graham's, River Horses, Psychotic Ninjas or Mex.

Golden Graham's only need to win to clinch a playoff spot, thanks to their huge point advantage over the River Horses and Ninjas.  They will also clinch with a loss if two out of the River Horses, Ninjas and Mex lose.

River Horses clinch with a win, unless Ninjas also win and outscore the River Horses by 3 or more points.  Both can clinch with a win and a loss by the other, or by Graham's, or Atomnation.

I'm going to predict right now that Pete loses to league cellar-dwellar Jason --- currently the lowest-scoring team in the league by almost 200 points --- because if Jason knocked Pete out of the playoffs, it would be really, really funny.

Finally, ~ Mex ~ will clinch a playoff spot with a win and losses by two of the teams ahead of him (Atomnation, Graham's, River Horses, Ninjas).  If Atomnation is one of those teams that loses, Mex also needs to retain his lead in points.

And that's it.  The rest of y'all can huddle together and come up with suggestions for Jason's team name next year, to give to the eventual league champion 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Insane.  In.  Sane.

I was expecting some clustering as we neared the season's end.  What I didn't expect was for half of the teams to cluster more near the TOP while the other half clustered more near the BOTTOM.

1. Moist Spots: 9-3, 858 points
2. Suspended Atomnation: 8-4, 778 points
3. Golden Graham's: 7-5, 843 points
4. ~ AirMex ~: 7-5, 794 points
5. Psychotic Ninjas: 7-5, 744 points
6. Orion River Horses: 7-5, 721 points
7. Merrill's Marauders: 5-7, 824 points
8. Team Harbaughs: 5-7, 754 points
9. Leviathans: 5-7, 751 points
10. Air Apparent: 4-8, 723 points
11. Los Diablos: 4-8, 719 points
12. Screaming Eagles: 4-8, 514 points

Let's get the easy stuff out of the way first.  All of the 4-8 teams are done.  All of the 5-7 teams are out with one more loss.  And even if Merrill, Jody or Levi win both of their remaining games, they still need at least THREE of the 7-5 teams to lose both remaining games AND finish with more points than all of them.

So let's focus on the teams with a prayer, shall we?

Moist Spots haven't finally, formally, without-a-doubt mathematically clinched a playoff spot yet, but the only way they miss is if they lose both remaining games; at least THREE of the 7-5 teams win both remaining games, and all three of those 7-5 teams finish with more points  than Aaron.  Given that Aaron already has 100+ more points than the Ninjas and River Horses, it's safe to say he'll finish in the top 4.

Given his 80-point lead over Adam, it's likely he clinches the #1 seed with one more victory.

Suspended Atomnation needs to win both remaining games to be assured a playoff spot, although just one more victory will likely be enough, since it's unlikely that three of the 7-5 teams will win out with enough points to outscore Adam.

And then there were --- the Graham's, Mex, the Ninjas and the River Horses.  Surprisingly, none of them play any of the others in the last 2 weeks, so they could all finish anywhere between 7-7 and 9-5.  So the final 2 weeks for these teams will resemble a kind of demolition derby --- we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Finally some observations . . . One great joy of fantasy is to score the most points the same week you're playing the guy who scored the second-most.  Almost as good is when you score the second-fewest points on a week when you play the team scoring the fewest.  Thanks for making last week fun, Taylor!

Also . . . man, I've made some bad trades in my day, but I bet Jody's really regretting his trade where he gave up Matthew Stafford for Matt Ryan.  It didn't make any difference to the results this weekend --- both Mex and Jody won --- but it's still looking like a big win for Mex at the moment.

And Merrill, Jody --- since you guys are out of the running anyway, there's no reason you need to put up your A game the rest of the year.  Rest your starters, let some hungry up-and-comers show what they can do.  No point sacrificing the future just for the sake of some meaningless wins which won't help you anyway.