Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Insane.  In.  Sane.

I was expecting some clustering as we neared the season's end.  What I didn't expect was for half of the teams to cluster more near the TOP while the other half clustered more near the BOTTOM.

1. Moist Spots: 9-3, 858 points
2. Suspended Atomnation: 8-4, 778 points
3. Golden Graham's: 7-5, 843 points
4. ~ AirMex ~: 7-5, 794 points
5. Psychotic Ninjas: 7-5, 744 points
6. Orion River Horses: 7-5, 721 points
7. Merrill's Marauders: 5-7, 824 points
8. Team Harbaughs: 5-7, 754 points
9. Leviathans: 5-7, 751 points
10. Air Apparent: 4-8, 723 points
11. Los Diablos: 4-8, 719 points
12. Screaming Eagles: 4-8, 514 points

Let's get the easy stuff out of the way first.  All of the 4-8 teams are done.  All of the 5-7 teams are out with one more loss.  And even if Merrill, Jody or Levi win both of their remaining games, they still need at least THREE of the 7-5 teams to lose both remaining games AND finish with more points than all of them.

So let's focus on the teams with a prayer, shall we?

Moist Spots haven't finally, formally, without-a-doubt mathematically clinched a playoff spot yet, but the only way they miss is if they lose both remaining games; at least THREE of the 7-5 teams win both remaining games, and all three of those 7-5 teams finish with more points  than Aaron.  Given that Aaron already has 100+ more points than the Ninjas and River Horses, it's safe to say he'll finish in the top 4.

Given his 80-point lead over Adam, it's likely he clinches the #1 seed with one more victory.

Suspended Atomnation needs to win both remaining games to be assured a playoff spot, although just one more victory will likely be enough, since it's unlikely that three of the 7-5 teams will win out with enough points to outscore Adam.

And then there were --- the Graham's, Mex, the Ninjas and the River Horses.  Surprisingly, none of them play any of the others in the last 2 weeks, so they could all finish anywhere between 7-7 and 9-5.  So the final 2 weeks for these teams will resemble a kind of demolition derby --- we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Finally some observations . . . One great joy of fantasy is to score the most points the same week you're playing the guy who scored the second-most.  Almost as good is when you score the second-fewest points on a week when you play the team scoring the fewest.  Thanks for making last week fun, Taylor!

Also . . . man, I've made some bad trades in my day, but I bet Jody's really regretting his trade where he gave up Matthew Stafford for Matt Ryan.  It didn't make any difference to the results this weekend --- both Mex and Jody won --- but it's still looking like a big win for Mex at the moment.

And Merrill, Jody --- since you guys are out of the running anyway, there's no reason you need to put up your A game the rest of the year.  Rest your starters, let some hungry up-and-comers show what they can do.  No point sacrificing the future just for the sake of some meaningless wins which won't help you anyway.