Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

It's that time of year again.  Time for me to spend insane amounts of time figuring out possible playoff scenarios.  This will give me a pleasant break from obsessing over my 4 fantasy teams.

I need to take a knee for a moment.

First, our current standings are as follows:

1. Moist Spots (8-3)
2. Golden Graham's (7-4)
3. Suspended Atomnation (7-4)
4. ~ AirMex ~ (6-5)
5. Psychotic Ninjas (6-5)
6. River Horses (6-5)
7. Merrill (5-6)
8. Leviathans (5-6)
9. Harbaughs (4-7)
10. Air Apparent (4-7)
11. Los Diablos (4-7)
12. Screaming Eagles (4-7)

The Moist Spots are sitting pretty, but they don't have anything locked up yet.  They'll clinch a playoff spot with two more victories, and even one more win will likely be enough given their substantial points advantage over Mex, Ninjas and the River Horses.

Coincidentally, Aaron goes up against the cellar-dwelling Screaming Eagles this week, which would seem to be a perfect setup for him to get a near-clinching win.  Of course, it also sets him up to stumble and fall over an opponent who doesn't even belong on the same field with him --- and I can see it happening.  After all, it's already a miracle that Jason has managed 4 wins this year; knocking off the league-leader wouldn't be any more surprising than any of those.

The Golden Graham's and Suspended Atomnation will both clinch a playoff berth if they win out, but that's hardly a news flash.  Kevin will almost certainly clinch a playoff spot with two more victories, given his surprisingly large lead in points over all the 6-5 teams.  Adam doesn't have that luxury, but 2 wins still probably clinches a playoff spot for him unless two of the three 6-5 teams win out AND outscore him by a bit.

After this, it's pretty much of a crap shoot.  Mathematics dictates that one (or more!) of the remaining 9 teams will make the playoffs, but no one really has an advantage over anyone else.  Merrill has a substantial points advantage over the remaining 8 teams, and so winning out will earn him a playoff spot so long as Mex, the Ninjas and the River Horses all lose at least once.  And other than Jason --- who still has scored a laughably pitiful number of points --- none of these teams is facing an insurmountable hurdle to the playoffs, either.

But I'll diss Jason some more later.  For now I want to talk about my week 11 victory over Kubicek.

THANK GOD I managed to eke out that victory.  Other than winning a title, there is probably no greater joy in fantasy football than picking out that sleeper and having him put up big points for your team when you really need it.  I added Thomas Rawls after week 3, and I watched helplessly when he put up 14 points on my bench in week 5.  But I held onto him, thinking that Marshawn Lynch might have more soft tissue problems, and that Rawls would be a worthy starter again this season.

And I was right!  Shortly before 3:00 Sunday afternoon, word came out that Lynch was inactive!  I wasn't too keen starting Randall Cobb anyway --- the guy has been a stiff all year, except for week 3 when I got to enjoy Cobb catching 3 touchdown passes from Aaron Rodgers, the guy Taylor had at QB against me --- so I went to my roster to bench Cobb in favor of Rawls.

AND DAMMIT TO HELL, I couldn't do it, because Dez Bryant was already locked into my RB/WR flex position!  Noooo!  I was denied the opportunity to reap the fruits of my foresight and patience, and all because I started Bryant as a 'flex' instead of a WR!  Are you kidding me?  Who pays attention to that crap?

AND TO MAKE IT WORSE, I had to sit and watch helplessly as Mason goddamn Crosby kept hitting field goal after field goal against the Vikings (jacking up Kubicek's total), while Blair Walsh, the Vikings kicker in my lineup, didn't even attempt a field goal --- AND he even missed an extra point!

Have I mentioned that I really dislike even having kickers on our rosters?

Anyway --- all's well that ends well.  I got the victory, and in the end my inability to swap in Rawls only cost me 17 points.  Of course, that would put me in 4th place right now instead of 5th, and could very well be the difference between me making the playoffs and battling for next year's #1 pick, but what the hell.  That's fantasy.

Anyway, getting back to playoff scenarios --- obviously, the 6-5 teams all have an inside track on the final playoff spot, but as fate would have it, none of Mex, the Ninjas or the River Horses play each other the final three weeks of the season, so it's possible for them all to finish 6-8.  Similarly, none of the 4-7 teams play each other the final three weeks, other than a week 13 meeting between Team Harbaughs and Air Apparent, so three of those teams could conceivably win out to finish 7-7.  So in a very real sense, everyone still has a realistic shot at the playoffs.

Even Jason.

How the hell does he do it?  Every other team in the league has outscored him by at least 18 points per game.  Not only that, only 3 teams in the league have had more points scored against them --- but he still has as many wins as Team Harbaughs, Air Apparent and our laughable defending champ, Los Diablos.  Not only that, somehow he managed to beat Merrill, the second-highest scorer in the league, this week.  So, you know, go Jason!  And as mentioned above, his foe this week is the league-leading Moist Spots, so maybe the hoodoo that's keeping him in the playoff hunt will also bring down Aaron.

I'm telling you: it could happen.