Week 12 Update

Here are the current standings, corrected using our tiebreaking algorithm:

1. Leviathans (8-4)
2. Screaming Eagles (8-4)
3. ~ AirMatt ~ (7-5)
4. Air Apparent (7-5)
5. Merrill's Marauders (7-5)
6. Orion River Horses (7-5)
7. Suspended Atomnation (6-6)
8. Golden Grahams (5-7)
9. Team Harbaughs (5-7)
10. Los Diablos (5-7)
11. Strike Team (4-8)
12. Psychotic Ninjas (3-9)

Now see, normally I might spend some time talking about how things got to this state, and talking about what needs to happen next week for this or that team to make the playoffs, clinch a first-round bye, etc.

BUT --- I have no idea what any individual team needs to do to improve their standing next week, other than to win by as many points as possible, because there are approximately 517,422,312 different possible outcomes to analyze.  So I won't be doing any of that (many, if not most of you, might see that as a win).

Levi and Jason have clinched a playoff spot, since neither of them can finish lower than the #6 seed.  Beyond that, I expect it's possible that Adam could knock out any of Matt, Taylor, Merril or Pete with a win.

Another surprising twist in the season: thanks to their record-tying 9-game losing streak to start the season, the Ninjas have 'clinched' a first-round bye into the bottom playoff bracket, despite holding the league's longest current winning streak.

Finally, if the Ninjas manage to win a fourth straight next week, and Levi and Jason lose, then there will only be a 4-game spread between first place and last place (from 8-5 to 4-9), which would certainly be something of a surprise considering how the season started.

As a parting gift, here's a photo showing my work where I figured out the #3 through #6 seeds.  I believe the only error is that I thought I was resolving the #2 through #5 seeds.  I just want to thank Kubicek again for introducing this rule.

Week 11 Update

So . . . I had a plan for a really funny post, acting like the season is only 2 weeks old and how the Ninjas are the best team in the league over that 2-week span.  But I'm going to spare you from that, because as it happens, Taylor emailed this week asking questions about playoff seeding and how this confusing new rule works.  So I thought I would take advantage of the three sets of 3-way ties we currently have to walk through how this rule works.

So you can thank Taylor for rescuing you from more of my 'wit'.  Also, it turns out that the Ninjas aren't the best team over the past 2 weeks anyway.  They're third.  The best team over the past 2 weeks is --- Taylor.  So there's another reason for you to thank him.

Anyway, I sat down, poured myself a good, stiff drink, and re-read the new seeding rule.  And it made me want to cry.  So I went to bed, got a good night's sleep, woke up this morning, and poured myself another good, stiff drink, and then another, and then I read the rule again.  And then I poured myself another good, stiff drink.  And now I welfare spoon tickle the glyph mountain wastebasket grlgyff fip fop nippy norp gibble. . . . .

(Time passes)

Crap.  Who left this big puddle of drool on my keyboard?  Well, anyway, here are the current standings, based on the seeding rules:

1. Screaming Eagles (8-3)
2. ~ AirMatt ~ (7-4)
3. Air Apparent (7-4)
4. Leviathans (7-4)
5. Suspended Atomnation (6-5)
6. Merrill's Marauders (6-5)
7. Orion River Horses (6-5)
8. Team Harbaughs (5-6)
9. Los Diablos (4-7)
10. Strike Team (4-7)
11. Golden Graham's (4-7)
12. Psychotic Ninjas (2-9)

You might notice that the seeds shown here differ a bit from those shown at the league site.  This is because of the seeding rule.  Unfortunately, we don't currently see any of the complexities of this rule, for two reasons.  First, at this point in the season, every team has played every other team exactly once.  Things get more complicated over the final two weeks, when everyone will play rematches of the first two weeks.  And second, all three of our current ties get broken in the same way.

For example, consider the three 7-win teams.  As it happens, Matt has defeated both Taylor and Levi, so he claims the #2 seed.  Taylor has beaten Levi, so he gets the #3 seed, leaving Levi at #4.

Similarly with the 6-win teams, Adam has beaten Pete and Merrill, and Merrill has beaten Pete.  So Adam is #5, Merrill is #6 and Pete is #7.

And finally, Kubicek beat Aaron and Kevin, and Aaron beat Kevin, which explains why Kubicek, Aaron and Kevin take seeds #9, #10 and #11, respectively.

At the end of the season, it will more likely be the case that if there is a 3-way (or 4-way) tie, those teams will not have played each other an equal number of games, in which case we fall back to giving the higher seed to the team with the most points on the season.

It's worth pointing out that the Psychotic Ninjas, still comfortably in last place, really ARE one of only three undefeated teams the past two weeks.  Yes, it seems as though the Ninjas are finally turning the corner, and should be a formidable contender for the title sometime during the 2021 season.