Break Up the Graham's
For several years, the average score in our league was
almost exactly 63 points. Now, five weeks into our new scoring system, it looks
like the new benchmark is 100. So far this year, exactly half of team point totals have been above
100 and exactly half below 100, meaning that if you score over 100 points, you
should win more than half the time.
With that in mind, I looked back at the first part of the
season to see how everyone is doing versus what they deserve (using the 100
line). I also looked at how our drafts are working out. When you revisit our teams’
entire drafts, it’s surprising how awful they look. What begins with so much
promise looks so dismal five weeks out. Most of us, Air Apparent included,
could put two-thirds of our draftees on waivers, if we haven't already, and hardly notice the
difference. But a few teams did make some very good selections in the sixth round
and beyond that are worth noting.
The Marauders. Are 4-1. Should be 4-1.
Marauders were champions in 2019 and maybe celebrated a
little too much. They fell to 5-8 last year and were at the bottom of the heap
in points scored. Dead last. Just by watching the waiver wire activity, you can
definitely see that there is a renewed sense of purpose in the Marauders’ front
office. The Marauders were a week ahead on smash performances by Kadarius Toney
and Dawson Knox, and, clearly looking toward the playoffs, just picked up Jerry
Jeudy even though he's going to remain on the shelf indefinitely. The Marauders will have to weather
several weeks without their old security blanket, Russell Wilson, who guided them
to their 2019 title. In Wilson’s absence, the Marauders will retain the benefit
of one of the best bargains from the draft. They snagged Deebo Samuel halfway
through the eighth round. Samuel is now the fifth-highest scoring wide
receiver. Marauders’ first and second-round choices, Alvin Kamara and Stefon
Diggs, have been middling to disappointing so far, meaning that this team could have an
explosive rest of the season if those two get going.
~ AirMex ~. Is 4-1. Should be 2-3.
As I said at the beginning of the year, ~ AirMex ~ is like
the Raiders of old. There is always turmoil, but they just win (baby). Even on Monday
night, just as the actual Raiders were firing their coach over his e-mails,
Mark Andrews brought Mex back from the dead with an out-of-the-blue 30.7 point
performance. Mex’s draft does not look mind blowing in retrospect, but its
grade might be about to rise. This week, as the fantasy football pundits advised
people to blow their entire free agent budgets to acquire Darrel Williams following
the Clyde Edwards-Helaire injury, owners in our league saw no such option. Williams
has been biding his time on Mex’s bench ever since Mex took him in the 17th
round of our draft.
Detroit KneeBiters, formerly Harbaughs. Are 3-2. Should
be 3-2.
The KneeBaughs were on the brink of their second huge
comeback in a row when Austin Ekeler put them on his back in the second half on
Sunday. But that was before Andrews’ performed his Monday Night magic for Mex,
sending the Knees to 3-2. The Knees, unlike Mex, did not draft Darrel Williams,
leaving them with almost no able-bodied running backs after CEH went down. No
matter, KneeBaugh owner George Steinbrenner spent 25 percent of his free agent
budget to acquire Devontae Booker. That was just one week after Steinbrenner
unloaded 50 percent of that budget to make Josh Gordon a KneeBaugh. With that
sort of reliance on free agency, it’s understandable if the KneeBaughs did not
worry too much about the draft, but … well,
there really isn’t too much a “but.” The Baughs struck gold with Ekeler at 8th
overall and A.J. Green is looking like a steal at 161. But the landscape in
between is pretty barren, save maybe for Jalen Hurts and his ability to squeeze
fantasy points out of hideous performances. Still, the Knees are winning. And they
were high for the week in Week 4, relying on Ekeler to hand Marauders their
only loss. (The Marauders were second highest in points that week, meaning they
would still be undefeated if they’d played anyone else.)
The Leviathans. Are 4-1. Should be 2-3.
The Leviathans, our defending champions,
are kind of a like Air Mex minus the turmoil. Every couple of years, they are right
in the thick of the championship chase. In fact, they have won the
championship two of the last four years. Right now, they are one of only two
teams to have two running backs in the top 12 in points scored, helped out by
sixth-round draft pick Kareem Hunt, who is sixth overall in RB points, and
Najae Harris, who is, so far, very durable. Travis Kelce is a points dispenser. And
Josh Allen runs up points very very quickly, especially against my Air Apparents.
Screaming Eagles. Are 3-2. Should be 3-2.
The Eagles, last year’s runners up, have steadily posted
100+ weeks with the help of a draft that looks spectacularly solid. Each of the
Eagles’ top seven draft picks is chugging along. No other team has avoided busts
so well. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ players have delivered occasional explosions,
like when Tyreek Hill posted a 37-point week. James Robinson and Antonio Gibson
have evoked many grumbles from fantasy owners, but they are both in the top 12
among running backs in fantasy points scored. Even Leonard Fournette is barely
outside the top 20. And with Thielen and Claypool and Dak, that’s not bad.
Air Apparent. Are 3-2. Should be 3-2.
Your commissioner’s team feels very fortunate to be 3-2. Almost
every week has looked like a certain defeat at one point or another. Since Laces
Out sniped my preferred players, I’m left with replacement level quarterbacks
and tight ends, left to hope that the locomotive (Derek Henry) gets rolling and
that Cooper Kupp does whatever he somehow does.
Los Diablos. Are 2-3. Should be 2-3.
Diablos woke up Monday morning staring
at a gloomy 1-4 record only to be rescued that night by a 28.9 point outburst
by Jonathan Taylor to eeeeeeeek out a 125.36 to 125.22 win over the Golden Graham’s.
That’s a 0.14 point margin. For reference, our league now awards 0.1 point per
yard rushing and receiving, meaning that an extra two yards would have done it
for the Graham’s. (The Graham’s also could have made up the difference if they
didn’t leave Mike Williams’ 28.5 points on their bench.) Coming off such an exhilarating
escape, the Diablos could be dangerous. The Diablos will look for bouncebacks
from second- and fourth-round draft picks DeAndre Hopkins and Robert Woods, who
have been disappointing, and a recovery by David Montgomery, who is injured.
But the Diablos have papered over some of those underwhelming selections by picking
Ja’Marr Chase halfway through the sixth round. Chase is sixth overall in points
by a receiver.
Golden Graham’s. Are 2-3. Should be
2-3.
The Golden Graham’s are an interesting case.
They’ve had tough luck, temporarily losing their first-round draft pick Dalvin
Cook to injury (though it's not as bad as last year, when the Graham’s first rounder was almost immediately lost for the season). Most of the Graham’s draft choices look ho-hum except for Justin
Herbert, who is a threat to score 50 points at any moment, and the man on the
receiving end of all those points, Mike Williams, who is 1st in fantasy points
among all receivers. Graham’s chose Williams at the end of the eighth round, which
has to make him the best sleeper pick in the draft. You also have to give Graham’s credit
for scooping punt returner Cordarrelle Patterson off of waivers way back in Week 3. Patterson is now 5th in running back points. One other thing about the Graham’s: IBM Watson
loves them. Even though they are in 8th place, Watson gives them the fourth
best chance to make the playoffs. And in the “Final Standings
Projections” (brought to you by Snickers) on our league’s home page, Graham’s are
predicted to finish second,* which means favored to reach the championship game. Once again,
they are currently in 8th place. Graham’s were scoring champs in Week 3.
Laces Out. Are 2-3. Should be 2-3.
Laces Out’s reputation preceded them
into the league, and they put together what appeared to me to be one of the
best drafts. As I look at it now, it still looks like one of the best drafts.
You’ve got Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, Amari Cooper and Kyler Murray in the first
five rounds. They’ve all been good to great, except for Barkley getting
injured. And Noah Fant has been good, as have Brandin Cooks and Tyler Higbee. Laces
also has been surgical on the waiver wire, picking up Dalton Schultz and Derek
Carr, who many teams would covet. So, I’m somewhat unclear how they are 2-3.
Orion River Horses. Are 2-3. Should be
3-2.
The Horses snubbed the fantasy football
lords by saying “no thank you” to Christian McCaffrey with the first overall
draft pick, which looks smarter and smarter each week that CMC is out. Their alternative,
Patrick Mahomes, is second in QB fantasy points. The other highlight of the
Horses’ draft was taking D.J. Moore in the fourth round. I don’t not see too
much else to love about their draft, but somehow, the OHR are second overall in
points scored. The Horses won weekly honors in Week 1, and their 109 points last week would have been enough to raise them
to 3-2 – except that Atom scored 163.
Suspended Atomnation. Is 1-4. Should
be 2-3 (sort of).
Atom might be the second least lucky
team so far this year, in victory as well as in defeat. The Atoms went into Monday
night needing serviceable performances from Lamar Jackson and/or Marquise Brown
to record their first win. Brown put up 25 points, which was more than enough to
get the job done. Meanwhile, Jackson rang up nearly 50. Atom needed exactly
zero of those 50 to win. What this leads to is that the Atoms now hold the all-time
record for single-game points under our new system (thus easily capturing the Week
5 sweepstakes) and are leading our league in overall points by a nice margin –
and they're in 11th place. Atoms tend to bounce back, however. Back in 2018, hungover
from a championship, Atom started out 1-7, but finished 7-9 if you count the
playoffs.
Strike Team. Is 0-5. Should be 2-3.
Fortune has not been on the Strike Team’s side, even when it
looked like it was. They lucked into Christian McCaffrey with the third pick of
the draft, which looked positively great for two weeks. Then CMC got injured. The next week, Strike’s third-round pick, George
Kittle, also got injured. Strike’s sixth
rounder was Jerry Jeudy. He got injured in the season opener, and is now recuperating on the Marauders’ bench. And Strike’s ninth-rounder Michael
Gallup ... yep, he also got injured in Week 1. On the bright side, Strike drafted
Elijah Mitchell, the unknown rookie who sprang off the bench to rush for 100
yards and capture the 49ers running back job. Nobody drafted Elijah Mitchell.
But, then, Mitchell got, well, injured. Strike also had the foresight to choose Rob Gronkowski
in the 12th round, and the resurgent Gronk immediately rocketed to the top of the TE charts. But
then Gronk, unfortunately, punctured his lung.** With the help of 78 year-old Tom
Brady, the points leader among QBs, Strike has hung around, coming within five
points of winning three times. Strike’s most heartbreaking defeat came in Week 2,
when Mason Crosby delivered nothing but extra points during a Monday night
blowout, causing Strike to fall 117.9 to 117.4.
* Following Thursday night’s game, Watson lowered Graham’s
expected finish from second to third. But still …
** Making light of Strike's plight, not Gronk's condition. We hope that his injury is not truly serious.
