Tuesday, November 22, 2022

 



Playoffs! You Kidding Me? Playoffs?!!!!

OK, folks. Since the last TTFFL update, our standings have consolidated a bit, making for an interesting stretch run. I am assuming here that it will require seven wins to make the playoffs but it does seem like there is a chance that a 6-8 team could sneak in.

Top Tier

Suspended Atomnation (8-3). Like famished sharks, these guys continue devouring everything in their path. Last week, they captured Weekly High honors again. I believe that is four times now, along with about four second place finishes. Atom actually has the most "Points Against" in the league. But, as Sparky Anderson might have said, "It don't matter." Weekly points leaders don't care what the guy scores.

Motor City Kitties (8-3). Yeah, they're good, too. Travis Kelce in the second round might be the best pick in the draft.

Status: I believe it is almost mathematically impossible for either of these teams to miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, they have a big edge in the quest for a first-round bye. 

Second Tier

Leviathans (7-4). They will live and die by the tie between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Just no more talk of Tommy John surgery, please, says Levi.

Lights Out (7-4). Very quietly, Lights Out has strung together a six-game winning streak. That is tied for the longest winning streak since 2018, when ~AirMex won eight straight. 

Status:
One more win will almost surely get these guys into the playoffs. Even with an 0-3 finish, they'll have a shot.  Both are in bad shape on the tie-breaker with the top tier teams, so it will likely require a 3-0 finish for either to capture a bye.

Third Tier

Detroit KneeBiters (6-5). The Knees lit up the scoreboard early in the season but have struggled lately. 

Air Apparent (6-5). The historically bad status of their draft was cemented over the weekend, when third-round selection (and total bust) Kyle Pitts was put on IR.

Status: Both of these teams are running on fumes, but have good chances to eke their way into the playoffs. Two wins will almost certainly do the trick. One win and a prayer might, as well.

Fourth Tier

Golden Grahams (5-6). These guys are second in the league in points. With the Kubicek rule in place, that might not matter.

Orion River Horses (5-6). A tough loss to B Cain in Week 11 put a dent in the Horses' playoff hopes.

Status: It'll almost certainly require at least two out of three for these guys to make the playoffs, and even that would be cutting it close.

Fifth Tier

Los Diablos (4-7). They recovered nicely from the Monday Night Heartbreaker of Week 8, with a Weekly High and another victory to make a win streak. But, then, they ran into the eviscerator known as Atomnation.

B Cain (4-7). You can kind of see it coming together for B Cain. Some of those big name players starting to live up to expectations. A two game winning streak. Maybe there will be some magic ... 

Merrill's Marauders (4-7). Well. The defending champion Marauders Just. Can't. Quite. Get. On. Track. Last week, they outplayed the KneeBiters in ever phase of the game, except one. KneeBiters' QB: 35 points, Marauders' QB: 2 points.

Status: It's not over till it's over. The fifth-tier crew will almost certainly need three-game winning streaks and a little luck to make it in. But it's entirely possible.

Sixth Tier

Eagles Super Bowl Champs (2-9). This might be the best 2-9 team we've ever had. The Eagles picked up Weekly High honors in Week 10. And if they hadn't left their QB position empty two weeks earlier, that likely would have been a third straight win. Eagles have got themselves the newly emerged best QB in fantasy football, plus Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and more. But they will have to fill out their line-up to maximize their chances of improving their record.




Wednesday, November 9, 2022

The Rich Get Richer

It has been a frustrating year for most of the teams in the TTFFL. Weekly Wins (which, for those who are unaware, carry a $15 sweepstakes) have been collected by only five teams. Just three teams have hogged seven out of nine of them.

Meanwhile, in a rare example of justice in our league, the teams scoring the most points are actually winning the most games. Of the six teams with the most points, only one would miss the six-team playoff field if the season ended today. (Sorry, Diablos.)

A reminder to all, especially new entrants: Thanks to the Kubicek Rule, playoff-seeding ties in our league are broken by a very complex head-to-head formulation instead of the much more rational points-scored system used everywhere else. So injustice might prevail, after all.

Atomnation (7-2, 2 weekly wins) is still smarting from that 0-4 start last year and, for that matter, their four game losing streak to end the regular season. These guys are on a revenge tour. Atom has scored at least 110 points in seven-out-of-nine weeks. For context, three teams -- including the defending champion Marauders -- have yet to reach that mark a single time. Atom has led the league in scoring twice,* finished second four times and third twice. That accounts for eight of the season's nine weeks, thus far. In Week 9, Atom entered Monday night with a shot at a third weekly title, but ended up falling a little short. Their owner's reaction showed just how much nicer things are in the Nation of Atom this year. “Saal good," he said.

Leviathans (7-2, 1 weekly), for reasons not always discernible, have an uncanny way of finding their way to the top of the standings. Maybe it's because the Leviathans do not listen to the wisdom that you should refrain from choosing a quarterback early in the draft. Instead, they just take Josh Allen.

The Motor City Kitties' (7-2) owner was ecstatic to escape the shackles of an assistant GM job at another franchise to go run his own show. First and second round draft picks Austin Ekeler and Travis Kelce are making him look pretty smart. 

Golden Graham’s (5-4, 2 weeklies) are one of the few teams remaining in the TTFFL with an all-time winning record in the wake of the departures of the Ninjas and both Air Mexes. Of course, that does not mean the Grahams have ever gotten anywhere near a championship. This year, they’re once again looking to kick the sonofabitch in. (I do recommend that 25 second link if you haven't clicked it when I've sent it out before.) Listen to some of these point totals: 110, 128, 130, 118, 131. Heck, in Week Five, Grahams tallied 130 points with tight end Taysom Hill’s 36 points sitting on their bench. Who would have even thought to draft Taysom Hill in the first place?

Detroit Kneebiters (5-4, 3 weeklies!) said on draft night that they had their best team ever. That would be saying a lot, given their near flawless 14-2 title run back in 2010. Not that there have been a lot of "bests" in Har-Putt-Knee land since then. But they are making a lot of noise this year, with a stupendous three weekly wins in nine weeks. 

Lights Out (5-4) followed up a rocky (that is, last place) debut in 2021 with a 1-4 start in 2022. Then a light bulb apparently went on, propelling them to a four-game winning streak that would have them in the playoffs if the season ended today. That light bulb was likely a newly discovered ability to keep the other guys from scoring any points. Lights Out's opponents have averaged a paltry 63 points a week during their winning streak. But Lights Out is also scoring, such as with a recent 50-point week from a single running back. 

Air Apparent (4-5) might be the worst team in playoff contention. The team’s second, third, fourth and fifth round draft picks are all certified busts. Only the NFL’s lax player-conduct policy (on everything but marijuana use) allowed their first rounder to escape suspension after he body slammed a photographer for committing the offense of walking in front of him. But after years of late-season heartbreak, championship-less Air Apparent is hoping the script is flipped this year. 

Orion River Horses (4-5) have had their moments, but are currently suffering from a three-game losing streak. This writer would have preferred if the Horses had chosen a time other than Week 7 to ask Gabriel Davis to ring up 171 yards and two touchdowns on just three catches.

Merrill’s Marauders (4-5) have shown over the years that they have difficulty handling success. We all remember the Marauders’ meltdown in 2020 after winning the championship the year before. After pulling it together to win another title in 2021, the Marauders once again find themselves near the bottom of the league in points scored. 

Los Diablos (3-6, 1 weekly) put their chips down on a freight train and a chef. The first one started slowly (as freight trains do) but has since accumulated tremendous momentum (as freight trains do). The second one is now cooking for someone else. Diablos would be on the cusp of the playoffs if not for suffering one of the more brutal losses in recent memory. They entered Monday Night Football in Week 8 needing only two points from their kicker (in other words, just a single field goal or two extra points). Well, the kicker got only one field goal attempt, which he missed. Fortunately, he got two extra point attempts. But he missed one of them, too, leaving the Diablos 0.36 points short. Still, the Diablos demonstrated their character by taking down a Weekly Win the following week.

B. Cain (2-7) took the league by storm in their franchise’s first game. Since then, it’s been a rocky road, as they’ve dropped seven out of eight, addled by the demise of Aaron Rodgers and injuries to Michael Thomas and Jonathan Taylor. This team has considerable depth, though. They could be spoilers or even get back into playoff contention if some of those injured players return. 

Eagles Super Bowl Champs (1-8) will not likely be TTFFL Champs in their inaugural year. Aided by the return of Dak Prescott and DeAndre Hopkins, the Eagles did capture their first ever win in Week 8. Their owner was evidently so pleased with his team that he rewarded his quarterback, tight end, flex position and kicker with off-weeks for Week 9. It would have been better if he had chosen a different week to dole out vacations because Justin Fields and Darnell Mooney ended up combining for 59 points while resting comfortably on the Eagles' bench. Despite their record, the Eagles actually have one of the more formidable lineups in the league and have the potential to end the season on a high note as they prepare for next year.

 * A previous note said that Atom had three weekly wins. It turns out that 128 is greater than 127, so they do not. They have two. We regret the error.

Tuesday, January 4, 2022



The Marauders Marauded


It was a cold winter in the Marauders' paddock in 2021.

After restoring their glory with a 2019 championship run that featured one of the deepest and highest-scoring teams in TTFFL history, the Marauders collapsed in 2020 to 5-8. To be fair, that 2020 season was actually much worse than the record indicated, given that the Marauders finished absolutely dead last in points scored.

Performances like that do not sit well with the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately fans in Marauderville. But the Marauders are a proud franchise, and they were determined to prove that the 2020 debacle was nothing but a hangover. The day after the 2020 season came to its merciful conclusion, the Marauders replaced nearly their entire personnel staff. Asked by a local sports talk host why the team was spending seven days a week in January preparing for the following September’s draft, the Marauders’ owner responded, “Because we can’t work eight days a week.”

The draft prep was guided by a back-to-basics philosophy that resulted in the eventual selection of Russell Wilson, the Marauders’ 2019 signal caller, in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. But it was more than just back to basics. The Marauders stepped away from their usual bias for semi-washed up brand names -- think Todd Gurley and Odell Beckham Jr. -- to search for hidden gems. Through tens of millions of simulations on their newly purchased neural network, the Marauders zeroed in on the injury-prone Deebo Samuel, whom they ended up stealing in the eighth round. After the draft, the Marauders used trades and waiver acquisitions to achieve much of the double- and triple-layered depth that characterized their 2019 team.

There were rumors about a third of the way through the season that the trade-happy Marauders were seeking to deal Samuel for Tyler Lockett, Wilson’s electric but inconsistent wide receiver. But those rumors never turned into reality, which proved fortunate because "Dee-Bull" became the very top scoring receiver (and side-order running back) the rest of the way. The Marauders somehow also ended up with Davonte Adams on their roster at some point along the way.

Sunday, it all paid off, as the Marauders defeated ~AirMex, 125-91, to capture their second title in three years, a stunning resurgence after a nearly two-decade drought that dated all the way back to the Marshall Faulk era. 

It will take time to determine this Marauders team's place in history. Unlike the 2019 edition, which was among the highest scoring teams of all time, this year's Marauders did not lead the league in points, and did not even capture a single Weekly scoring crown during the regular season. 

But this was one of the most consistent teams ever, which was especially notable because this season was almost completely lacking in continuity. 

Only once did the Marauders fail to score at least 80 points in a week (a feat that was matched by just one other team). The Marauders finished the season 13-3. Aside from losses to AirMex and Air Apparent -- which were first and second in points scored -- the Marauders' only loss came in Week 4 at the hands (or teeth?) of the Detroit KneeBiters, who used a late Austin Ekeler touchdown to nip them, 131-128. The Marauders’ 128 points in that losing effort were the second-highest in the league that week and, coincidentally, the most that the Marauders scored all season.
 
This is not to say that the Marauders did not face adversity. Their first-round draft pick, superstar Alvin Kamara, was injured on and off throughout the season and his performance was hindered by the New Orleans Saints diseased offense. Wilson, meanwhile, spent much of the season looking like Jared Goff on a bad day (as the chief Marauder, himself, noted during the season). But the Marauders skillfully patched those holes with unappetizing alternatives, biding their time for Kamara to heal and Russ to put his chef's hat back on –  which he did, for the playoffs. 

The Marauders saved their best for last, spooling up nearly 120 points in the regular season finale to clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs and then 125 points in both of their playoff contests. The Marauders chose their first playoff game to notch their first Weekly honors. 

The Marauders' late season dominance obscured the near perfect season enjoyed by AirMex in GP’s return to the helm of the team he founded. Mex cruised to an 11-3 regular season mark, never falling out of first place. Despite the disappointing championship game loss, Mex will be able to take solace in winning the prestigious but unofficial regular season points title, which they claimed in the season's final week by overtaking Air Apparent.  

Mex, like the Marauders, was a portrait of consistency, scoring at least 75 points every week, a distinction that not even the Marauders can claim. They had the wisdom -- perhaps aided by an auto-selection necessitated by a power outage -- to draft Matthew Stafford. Another choice, Mark Andrews, sprung to life in the second half of the season to lead all tight ends in points. Even old stand-bys like Ezekiel Elliott, the subject of much kvetching, gave them enough each week to win and win and win. Mex also led the league in transactions, including the acquisition of Justin Jackson, who carried them into the championship game. In the process, Mex crushed the dreams of Air Apparent, becoming perhaps the first team in league history to defeat another team three times in the same season.
  
Air Apparent (third place) was close or "close to close" again, returning to the playoffs and narrowly missing the overall points crown. Its management bypassed the more highly touted Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara to take Derek Henry with the second overall draft pick. The choice was designed for the playoffs, given the others' injury histories and Henry's penchant for gaining momentum when the leaves fall off trees. Things were progressing ahead of schedule as Henry steamrolled everything in his path for the first half of the season. But the party ended prematurely when the locomotive chipped a wheel in Week 8. 

The defending champion Leviathans (fourth place) defied all sorts of odds this year. They became only the second team in the ESPN era to make the playoffs in the year after winning a title. The Leviathans somehow managed to sail to a 9-5 record despite scoring the third-fewest points, largely because their opponents also scored the third-fewest points. (That still does not really explain 9-5, come to think of it.) But the Leviathans scored when they needed to and were aided by timely explosions from quarterback Josh Allen, whom they wisely drafted in the third round.

The Leviathans made among the fewest transactions, but they chose well. They picked up the previously moribund Russell Gage, who both turned into a consistent producer and delivered a very timely 15 points in the first round of the playoffs, giving the Leviathans just enough to win the Trumbore Bowl and advance to the semifinals.

Like the Leviathans, the Screaming Eagles (fifth place) mastered the art of doing more with less. Despite finishing last overall in points, they stood on the doorstep of the playoffs until fading in the season's final weeks. The Eagles awoke from their slumber with three straight wins in the consolation tier of the playoffs, including a Weekly Win, to secure the first overall pick in next year's draft. What the Eagles lacked in superstars, they made up for in consistency, as a high percentage of their draft picks worked out, more or less. Second-rounder Tyreek Hill ended up having a good year by most receivers' standards, but only so-so for him. If he had been the Hill of old, the Eagles might have returned to the championship game.

Always explosive Atomnation (sixth place) suffered a dreadful start to the season due to the misfortune of their opponents scoring an ungodly number of points. Atom decided to snap their losing streak once and for all in week 5 by ringing up 163 points, which still stands as the single-game record under the new scoring system. Atom had their moments as the year progressed, periodically knocking on the playoff door but never quite kicking the SOB down. Atom had 65 more points scored against them than the team giving up the second most, and 125 more than the team giving up the third most. That is a lot. They won their first two postseason games, giving themselves a morale booster and a high draft pick to look forward to in 22.

The Diablos (seventh place*) had perhaps the most spirited season of any team. Helmed by both Paul and Jonah Kubicek, they were staring at an almost fatal 1-4 start before Jonathan Taylor rescued them with a flurry of touchdowns to give them a 0.14 point win over the Golden Grahams in a game now known in Diablos-lore as the Monday Night Miracle. The Diablos used that escape as a springboard to propel them to an 8-6 record and a playoff berth. Taylor and the Diablos' selection of Ja'Marr Chase, who was widely viewed as a disaster in the preseason, looked poised to carry the Diablos to an improbable championship before Chase unexpectedly fell asleep during the first round of the playoffs. Not to be deterred, the Diablos rebounded with by scoring 110 points in the consolation-tier second round and 130 points in the third round, winning Weekly honors.  *But for the fact that the league office sent the wrong opponent to play the Diablos in the second round of the playoffs, the Diablos would have won the consolation tier and, with it, the first overall selection next year. As with questions surrounding the remaining four years of dead salary on Urban Meyer's contract, one can be sure that lawyers will be involved in working this one out.

The Horses of the Orion River (eighth place), like the Diablos, bounced off the deck to put themselves in the thick of things. The Horses strung together a five-game winning streak at the end of the season to put themselves in the playoffs. It was the season's longest winning streak (since tied by the champion Marauders). The Horses' methods were unconventional. They selected Patrick Mahomes with the first overall pick, which few pundits would have recommended. Then they went with a Detroit Lion and a Cincinnati Bengal as their running backs. Those are never safe things to do. But Deandre Swift and Joe Mixon worked out, and Mahomes saved his best for the first week of the playoffs. If he'd only thrown a few of his passes to receivers besides Travis Kelce that week, the Horses would have won the Trumbore Bowl and advanced in the playoffs.

The Golden Grahams (ninth place) were the fan favorites of IBM Watson, which relentlessly predicted that the Grahams would finish near the top of the standings even as the Grahams lost week after week ... after week. Such a top-tier finish did not occur, but maybe Watson knew something, after all. The Grahams finished fourth overall in points scored. The Grahams had a solid core, anchored by quarterback Bobby Justin Herbert. They also had tough luck. Their first-round choice, Dalvin Cook, was periodically on the shelf throughout the season and their gamble on Darren Waller did not pay off. But the Grahams made up for that by picking up the reborn Cordarrelle Patterson and by choosing rooking running back Michael Carter, a New Yok Jet, for God's sake. (Is there something about the Grahams and New York Jets, or does it just seem that way?) At one point, the Grahams were looking at a last place finish, but they saved face with a two-game winning streak, including a satisfying finale in the Graham Bowl against ...  

... The Detroit KneeBiters (formerly Harbaughs) (tenth place) who, well, fell on hard times. The KneeBiters started off 3-1, which was promising enough. But then they lost nine of their next 10. What happened to these cats? Besides naming themselves after a Detroit Lions coach, it is unclear. The Knees drafted Austin Ekeler (great), Jalen Hurts (surprisingly great), Mike Evans (fine) and AJ Green (good). Yes, most of their draft ended up on a scrap heap, but the same can be said for most teams. The best explanation seems to be that they expended too much energy defeating the Marauders in week four and then suffered a crushing defeat (115-108) to AirMex the next week. What would have been a 4-1 start turned to 3-2, and maybe the KneeBiters had just had enough. 

Strike Team (11th place) had the most unheralded season of all. They started out 0-6, partly due to losing a couple of heartbreakers, including a 117.9 to 117.4 crusher. Meanwhile, literally the majority of their starters, including top draft pick Christian McCaffrey, were injured in the first few games of the season. But Strike quietly kept at it, going 5-3 the rest of the way and winning Weekly honors in both of the regular season's last two games, including a 145-95 walloping of Air Apparent that was aided by the acquisition of Rashad Penny. Strike lost their mojo in the first couple rounds of the postseason, but recovered to make a bid for a third Weekly title in the final round, tallying 125 points to beat ...  

... Laces Out (12th place), who just had the misfortune of having all the best laid plans go wrong. Laces put together one of the most highly regarded drafts and continued to supplement its team through roster moves, of which they had the second-most in the league. But their superstar-studded roster, featuring Kyler Murray, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley and Brandon Cooks, just did not deliver in line with past performance, aside from Cooks. Keep an eye on Laces Out to rebound in 2022.
 

Inside the Numbers

The four teams finishing at the top of the standings have now accounted for the last five championships, Leviathans and Marauders two each; AirMex (under different management) one; Air Apparent zero.

AirMex has made the playoffs the last eight years, which is all eight years they have been in the league during the ESPN era. The streak bridges the gap from GP’s return to the league in 2014, his departure, and his second return in 2021. 

The three top finishers in the regular season standings -- AirMex, Marauders and Leviathans -- had the three lowest numbers of points against. The fourth-place finisher, Air Apparent, had the third-most points against.

Weekly high-points honors were distributed almost as equally as mathametically possible, with 11 teams winning at least one week and no team winning more than twice.