Week 8 Roundup

What, you expected regular updates or something?  I been busy, man.

Anyway, let's see what's happening in the league this year ---

• It's official!  In just his second season in the league, ~Mex (8-0) has set a league record for most consecutive wins to start the season.  If he beats Kevin this week, he will clinch a playoff spot, open up a 2-game lead for first place, and match the record of longest winning streak ever --- set back in 2012 by some team called the Psychotic Ninjas (remember that season?  I'll never forget it.  I went 0-5 to start the season, won the final 9 games to grab the #1 seed, and promptly lost both playoff games to finish the season out of the money.  Good times).
• Golden Grahams (7-1) are actually fielding a competitive team this year, which begs the obvious question: Who are you, and what have you done with Kevin?  But seriously, I'm rooting for Kevin to whoop up on Matt this week, partly because I want to keep the record for league's longest win streak, but mostly because I just enjoy it when Matt loses.
• Psychotic Ninjas (6-2) I had to play Matt last week without my QB or my RB1.  Insert complaining noises here.
• Air Apparent (5-3) Hands up, everyone who would have predicted back in August that a team starting James Conner, Phillip Lindsay, Chris Godwin, Josh Gordon and Kenny Golladay would have a winning record.  Anyone?  Anyone?  Bueller?
• Merrill's Marauders (4-4) Hands up, everyone who would have predicted back in August that a team with DeShaun Watson, Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Odell Beckham, Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen would be struggling to break .500.  Anyone?  Anyone?  And how in hell did we let Merrill get this much talent on his roster, anyway?  We all suck at drafting.
• Kapernick's Crusaders! (4-4) Aaron Rodgers, Chris Carson and Demaryius Thomas all have the potential to be top players at their positions the back half of the season, making the Crusaders a possible dark horse down the line.  Especially Thomas.  DeShaun Watson is a bit of an upgrade over Case Keenum, ya think?
• Orion River Horses (3-5) Hands up, everyone who would have predicted back in August that a team with Russell Wilson, Jordan Howard, Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Evans, the Vikings DST and Justin Tucker would be 3-5.  No, keep 'em up, I want to get a good count.
• Team Harbaughs (3-5) The bad news: Jody has lost 4 of his last 5 games.  The good news: He's playing the Trumbores in back-to-back weeks!  That's always a good cure for what ails ya!
• Screaming Eagles (3-5) The good news: Jason has Kareem Hunt, got an unexpected bargain with Adrian Peterson, and has fantasy's #1 kicker, Stephen Gostkowski!  The bad news: For some reason, he's still rostering Ryan Grant, DeVante Parker, Josh Doctson, and Devonta Freeman, who went on IR three weeks ago.  Interesting strategy.
• Los Diablos (3-5) Have had one winning season since they claimed the title back in 2014, and are once again mired in mediocrity.  Looking over the misery that is his roster, I see Kirk Cousins, Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas --- and a whole lot of players who easily rank in the top 30 (or 40) at their positions.
• Suspended Atomnation (1-7) It's not surprising Adam has two fewer wins than Kubicek, given that his roster is even more devoid of talent.  Matt Ryan and Alvin Kamara are the only quality players he has, and I've heard they're both demanding a trade.  It would appear that the major mistake Adam made was to score more than 20% of his points for the season in week 4, when he put up 126 points to notch his only win.
• Leviathans (1-7) Last year, Levi pulled of an impressive worst-to-first turnaround to claim the title.  Not content to rest on his laurels, he seems intent on on being the first team in TTFFL history to pull off the mythical worst-to-first-to-worst triple axel.  Dalvin Cook, Delanie Walker, Jamison Crowder and Greg Zuerlein are only too happy to help.

~Mex, Kevin and YEC would have to struggle mightily to avoid the playoffs at this point, while Adam and Levi would need to pay someone a lot of money to make it in (send me a private email, guys).  So the real excitement these last five weeks will be seeing which of the teams between Taylor and Kubicek manage to claim the final three playoff spots.

Good luck guys.  Except not any week when you happen to be playing me, obviously.

Saal Good, Man

Coming in just under the wire, Adam was the last one to pay his dues for the TTFFL season, and not a minute too soon.  If I hadn't received payment today, then by rule, Adam would have dropped to the #4 pick in the draft, and Pete would have moved up to #3.

But upon receiving Adam's check (in the mail --- he didn't even play it safe and slide in a last-minute PayPal payment), the draft order will remain as it is.  And Adam was nice enough to include a friendly note for Pete along with his check:

And with that, I look forward to virtually seeing all of you Wednesday night!

(I also look forward to seeing virtually all of you Wednesday night).

Let's Try This Again

I am pleasantly surprised that no one in the league seems all that desperate to collect their money.  I know that you're not that desperate, because in the 18 days since I first posted accounting info for the two leagues, exactly two of you have told me how I can go about paying you.

On the other hand, I did half-ass this pretty hard.  So, let's see if I can fully ass it.  I'm going to post combined accounting amounts for both leagues to this page, which covers everyone but Jennifer and Shawn from Battlin' Sweethearts (I'll communicate with them via email).

SO --- I'm going to hold back money for next year's league dues where appropriate, and do my best to pay out any excess.  With that in mind, here's the money I owe everyone, from most to least:

• Levi: $345 total (TTFFL title, high score in weeks 3, 4 and 5), minus $60 for 2018 league dues equals $285 owed. - Check mailed 2/10/2018.
• Merrill: $240 total (Battlin' Sweethearts runner-up, TTFFL runner-up, high score in weeks 6, 13 and 15), minus $110 for 2018 league dues for himself and Brandy equals $130 owed. - Check mailed 2/10/2018.
• Taylor: $135 total (TTFFL 3rd place, high score in weeks 7, 8, 10, 11 and 16), minus $60 for 2018 league dues equals $75 owed - Check mailed 1/29/2018.
• Aaron: $150 total (Battlin' Sweethearts title), minus $110 for 2018 dues for himself and Anne equals $40 owed. - Check mailed 1/26/2018.
• Adam: $30 total (high score in weeks 2 and 14), which will be applied as a credit toward 2018 league dues.
• Matt: $15 total (high score in week 1) --- paid via PayPal 1/17/2018.
• Kubicek: $15 total (high score in week 9). will be applied as a credit toward 2018 league dues.
• Kevin: $15 total (high score in week 12), will be applied as a credit toward 2018 league dues.

And that's it.  So, I would like to make payment to Levi, Merrill and Taylor, since I don't really have a good way to carry over more money from one year to the next beyond league dues.  As a reminder, I can now make payment via PayPal as well as by check.

And if anyone would like to receive actual money instead of credit toward next year's league dues, let me know.

And with that --- we bid a fond farewell to the 2017 fantasy football season.

2017 Accounting

It just occurred to me that the folks who won money this year are probably interested in receiving it.  So I thought I should probably sit down and figure out what everybody has won.  Someone check my math:

• Levi: $300 for winning the title, plus $45 for highest score weeks 3, 4 and 5.  $345 total.
• Merrill: $120 for second place, plus $45 for weeks 6, 13 and 15.  $165 total.
• Taylor: $60 for third place, plus $75 for weeks 7, 8, 10, 11 and 16.  Wow, that's a lot of weekly high scores!  $135 total.
• Adam: $30 for weeks 2 and 14.
• Matt: $15 for week 1. --- Paid, 1/17/2018
• Kubicek: $15 for week 9.
• Kevin: $15 for week 12.

And I have some good news!  I've decided to move into the 21st century, and I can now make your payments via PayPal!  So if you would like to receive your money via PayPal, just drop me an email letting me know what email address you use for PayPal payment.  Otherwise, you can just let me know your mailing address, and I'll send you a check.

I'll let this ferment for a week, just in case someone thinks I made a mistake computing this, and I'll start sending the payments out after the Vikings beat the Saints next week.

(And if the Vikings DON'T beat the Saints?  That's crazy talk!)

Leviathans!

The Marauder was no match for the Leviathan

In addition to several really fascinating gift cards, I got two other wonderful gifts this Christmas.

First, the results of all 6 games have been determined before the night game even starts!!! So I can put up this championship write-up before going to bed!

BUT!!!  More importantly, Merrill DIDN'T win!  It truly is a Christmas miracle!  And even though I'm not the one who beat him, I'm still going to send this message to Merrill on Levi's behalf:

And so for 2017, the final standings are:

1. Leviathans
2. Marauders
3. Air Apparent
4. Screaming Eagles
5. Golden Graham's
6. ~ AirMatt ~
7. Suspended Atomnation
8. Orion River Horses
9. Los Diablos
10. Psychotic Ninjas
11. Team Harbaughs
12. Strike Team

WHICH MEANS . . . the draft order for 2018 is:

1. Golden Graham's
2. ~ AirMatt ~
3. Suspended Atomnation
4. Orion River Horses
5. Los Diablos
6. Psychotic Ninjas
7. Team Harbaughs
8. The Team Formerly Known as Strike Team
9. Screaming Eagles
10. Air Apparent
11. Merrill's Marauders
12. Leviathans

I'll put up another post sometime in the next two weeks with final 2017 accounting.  Until then, congratulations again to Levi, Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year, everyone!

Leviathan/Marauder Showdown

And so it comes down to this.  Levi is on the cusp of completing a worst-to-first turnaround, and all that's standing in his way is a Marauders team that scored 108 points last week.

Actually, if Levi does take the title, I'm going to blame it all on Adam for failing to give him a properly embarrassing team name and Avatar at the start of the season.  And I think everyone else should blame him, too.

In other week 16 matchups, we have:

• Air Apparent vs. Screaming Eagles for 3rd place.
• Golden Graham's vs. AirMatt for 5th place.
• Atomnation vs. Leviathans for 7th place.
• Ninjas vs. Los Diablos for 9th place.
• Strike Team vs. Team Harbaughs for 11th place.  And for last place.

One thing I'm fairly certain of.  Whether Levi or Merrill takes the title, neither of them will hesitate to exercise their Champion's privilege on Aaron or Jody.

Hey Merrill --- I think your wife might have a good idea for a name and avatar you can give Aaron's team, if that's how things shake out.

Semifinals Week

I re-jiggered the brackets again, probably not for the last time.

The championship bracket should be set.  One semifinal features Air Apparent vs. Leviathans, while the other features Merrill's Marauders and the Screaming Eagles.

ESPN has no idea what to do with the other 8 teams, so probably it will get the matchups wrong again next week, and I'll have to fiddle with them again.  But here's a picture of the remaining games:

So far, the higher seed has won all 4 postseason matchups.  Let's hope that trend doesn't continue.

The Playoff Picture

As a mathematician, I notice patterns.  And sometimes, the patterns I see surprise me.  For example, the final standings this year surprise me.  There's an interesting symmetry in the final standings:

1. The Leviathans (9-4)
2. Screaming Eagles (8-5)
3. Merrill's Marauders (8-5)
4. Air Apparent (7-6)
5. Orion River Horses (7-6)
6. ~ AirMatt ~ (7-6)
7. Suspended Atomnation (6-7)
8. Golden Graham's (6-7)
9. Team Harbaughs (6-7)
10. Los Diablos (5-8)
11. Strike Team (5-8)
12. Psychotic Ninjas (4-9)

One team alone at the top, with a 9-4 record, and one team alone at the bottom with the reverse record of 4-9.

Two teams in the #2 and #3 spots with 8-5 records, and two teams in the #11 and #10 spots at 5-8.

And the remaining teams split down the middle with mirror-image 7-6|6-7 records.  Kind of interesting.

Anyway, some folks might be more interested in how the ties were broken.  By the rule adopted last year, the tie between the two 8-5 teams (Merrill and Jason) was broken in Jason's favor, because Jason beat Merrill 55.2 - 54.8 in their lone matchup this season.  Kubicek claimed the #10 seed over Aaron for a similar reason, as Kubicek defeated Aaron 67.9 - 48.1 in their lone matchup.

The 3-way ties were a bit trickier.  Taylor beat Pete, who beat Matt, who beat Taylor.  So we had to break it down to which team "scored the most points in games played among those teams".  Taylor scored a total of 156.7 points in games played against Pete and Matt, which was higher than Pete's total against Matt and Taylor, and Matt's total against Pete and Taylor.  So Taylor got the #4 seed.

And because "If a single team is identified after a given step, that team is awarded the higher seed and the remaining teams restart the process from the beginning," we then looked at the head-to-head matchup between Pete and Matt, which Pete won 54.4 - 44.5 (more symmetry!).  Which is why Pete takes the #5 seed and Matt takes the #6 seed.

Similarly, for the 6-7 teams, Jody beat Adam beat Kevin beat Jody, which means we look at total points scored in games among those teams.  Adam's total of 140.3 just barely edges out Jody's total of 139.7, which gives Adam the #7 seed.  Then we start the process all over again with the Brothers Graham, which is why Kevin takes the #8 seed, since he beat Jody in their one matchup 81.6 - 63.4.

*Phew*

And now I can forget about that tie-breaking formula for another whole year.

AND SO --- This means that The Leviathans, Screaming Eagles, Strike Team and Psychotic Ninjas all have a bye this week.  The system will pair those teams up, but no one gets a win or a loss.  Levi and Jason have a bye into the semifinals, while Aason and Your Esteemed Commissioner have a bye into the Toilet Bowl.

But as always, field your best lineup in the hopes of getting the highest score of the week!

Those teams which actually DO have games this weekend are Merrill against Matt and Taylor against Pete, all vying for the remaining two semi-final spots, and Adam vs. Kubicek and a Battle of the Brothers Graham, vying to AVOID the final two spots in the Toilet Bowl (and compete for next year's top draft pick!)

Remember that in the unlikely event of a tie, the higher-seeded team will advance.  Also remember that depending on the outcome of this week's games, I may need to fiddle with the brackets again in order to make sure the correct teams are matched up again next week.

Congratulations, everyone!  Except for the people who didn't make the playoffs!  To them I say, it could be worse!  You could have finished in last place, like me!

Week 12 Update

Here are the current standings, corrected using our tiebreaking algorithm:

1. Leviathans (8-4)
2. Screaming Eagles (8-4)
3. ~ AirMatt ~ (7-5)
4. Air Apparent (7-5)
5. Merrill's Marauders (7-5)
6. Orion River Horses (7-5)
7. Suspended Atomnation (6-6)
8. Golden Grahams (5-7)
9. Team Harbaughs (5-7)
10. Los Diablos (5-7)
11. Strike Team (4-8)
12. Psychotic Ninjas (3-9)

Now see, normally I might spend some time talking about how things got to this state, and talking about what needs to happen next week for this or that team to make the playoffs, clinch a first-round bye, etc.

BUT --- I have no idea what any individual team needs to do to improve their standing next week, other than to win by as many points as possible, because there are approximately 517,422,312 different possible outcomes to analyze.  So I won't be doing any of that (many, if not most of you, might see that as a win).

Levi and Jason have clinched a playoff spot, since neither of them can finish lower than the #6 seed.  Beyond that, I expect it's possible that Adam could knock out any of Matt, Taylor, Merril or Pete with a win.

Another surprising twist in the season: thanks to their record-tying 9-game losing streak to start the season, the Ninjas have 'clinched' a first-round bye into the bottom playoff bracket, despite holding the league's longest current winning streak.

Finally, if the Ninjas manage to win a fourth straight next week, and Levi and Jason lose, then there will only be a 4-game spread between first place and last place (from 8-5 to 4-9), which would certainly be something of a surprise considering how the season started.

As a parting gift, here's a photo showing my work where I figured out the #3 through #6 seeds.  I believe the only error is that I thought I was resolving the #2 through #5 seeds.  I just want to thank Kubicek again for introducing this rule.

Week 11 Update

So . . . I had a plan for a really funny post, acting like the season is only 2 weeks old and how the Ninjas are the best team in the league over that 2-week span.  But I'm going to spare you from that, because as it happens, Taylor emailed this week asking questions about playoff seeding and how this confusing new rule works.  So I thought I would take advantage of the three sets of 3-way ties we currently have to walk through how this rule works.

So you can thank Taylor for rescuing you from more of my 'wit'.  Also, it turns out that the Ninjas aren't the best team over the past 2 weeks anyway.  They're third.  The best team over the past 2 weeks is --- Taylor.  So there's another reason for you to thank him.

Anyway, I sat down, poured myself a good, stiff drink, and re-read the new seeding rule.  And it made me want to cry.  So I went to bed, got a good night's sleep, woke up this morning, and poured myself another good, stiff drink, and then another, and then I read the rule again.  And then I poured myself another good, stiff drink.  And now I welfare spoon tickle the glyph mountain wastebasket grlgyff fip fop nippy norp gibble. . . . .

(Time passes)

Crap.  Who left this big puddle of drool on my keyboard?  Well, anyway, here are the current standings, based on the seeding rules:

1. Screaming Eagles (8-3)
2. ~ AirMatt ~ (7-4)
3. Air Apparent (7-4)
4. Leviathans (7-4)
5. Suspended Atomnation (6-5)
6. Merrill's Marauders (6-5)
7. Orion River Horses (6-5)
8. Team Harbaughs (5-6)
9. Los Diablos (4-7)
10. Strike Team (4-7)
11. Golden Graham's (4-7)
12. Psychotic Ninjas (2-9)

You might notice that the seeds shown here differ a bit from those shown at the league site.  This is because of the seeding rule.  Unfortunately, we don't currently see any of the complexities of this rule, for two reasons.  First, at this point in the season, every team has played every other team exactly once.  Things get more complicated over the final two weeks, when everyone will play rematches of the first two weeks.  And second, all three of our current ties get broken in the same way.

For example, consider the three 7-win teams.  As it happens, Matt has defeated both Taylor and Levi, so he claims the #2 seed.  Taylor has beaten Levi, so he gets the #3 seed, leaving Levi at #4.

Similarly with the 6-win teams, Adam has beaten Pete and Merrill, and Merrill has beaten Pete.  So Adam is #5, Merrill is #6 and Pete is #7.

And finally, Kubicek beat Aaron and Kevin, and Aaron beat Kevin, which explains why Kubicek, Aaron and Kevin take seeds #9, #10 and #11, respectively.

At the end of the season, it will more likely be the case that if there is a 3-way (or 4-way) tie, those teams will not have played each other an equal number of games, in which case we fall back to giving the higher seed to the team with the most points on the season.

It's worth pointing out that the Psychotic Ninjas, still comfortably in last place, really ARE one of only three undefeated teams the past two weeks.  Yes, it seems as though the Ninjas are finally turning the corner, and should be a formidable contender for the title sometime during the 2021 season.