Of Grahams and Marauders

What the hell, we're 6 weeks into a 13-week season, might as well give a league update.

For starters, of course, Kevin has indicated that he wants this saved for posterity, and I'm happy to oblige:

Sorry about week 4, Kevin, when all of my players took the week off and I let Merrill score his one win of the season, otherwise this would be just about perfect for you.  OTOH, if I had won that game, then I would be ahead of you on points, so maybe this is better.  Whatevs.

Yes, that one game is the only thing keeping both me and Merrill from perfect records so far, but even as things are, WHAT THE HELL?!?  I would have to go check league history --- and I'm not going to do that this time, despite how fun it is digging through the archives --- but I don't recall a team EVER starting the year with six straight wins or losses, and this year we have THREE of them (and damn near five).

Well, let's see.  Kevin has definitely had some good games, including breaking the century mark twice, but he's also benefited from some less-than-stellar play on the part of Kubicek and the Trumbore family, none of whom managed to score even 50 points against the Golden Graham's.  Maybe Michigan's water problems extend outside the city of Flint.  As for the 0-6 losers, Aaron has just been plain bad most weeks, averaging less than 55 points per game, while Jason has had some bad weeks and some bad luck, giving up close to 100 points per game, on average.

That's one thing you can say about fantasy football; it's never dull.

It's really too early to get into playoff scenarios, but let's do it anyway (it may well be another 6 weeks before I post anything else).

Obviously the Graham's, Ninjas and Atomnation are sitting pretty, each likely needing only 2 or 3 more wins (if that) to clinch a playoff spot.  Then the 4-2 teams all have the best shot at securing the final 3 playoff spots, although it's almost certain that at least one of them will take a nosedive in the final 7 games.  That leaves open the question of who will be the 1 or 2 teams in the bottom six to make a run.

Could it be the Leviathans?  Quite likely, considering that they're 3-3 even with Doug Martin having sat out for 4 weeks.  How about Mex?  He could make things interesting if Aaron Rodgers and Jamaal Charles start playing like it's 2013.  Pete?  Well, never say never, but Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones are really the only two players on his roster you would call studs.  Merrill?  It doesn't look likely, but you should never count out a team with Cam Newton.

And what about the 0-6 Screaming Eagles and Strike Team?  Are their seasons over?

Yes.  Yes, I'm afraid they are.

This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.

History

I swear Taylor asked for this.  Well, most of this, anyway.

As some of you may have noticed, I absolutely CRUSHED it this week, scoring 131.8 points against poor Jason.  And that with Tevin Coleman sitting on my bench.

So earlier today, Taylor sent me the following email:

If you'd only started Coleman, you would have had a really good week.

This evolved into a discussion of high-scoring games, and long story short, I went back through the archives to find the highest-scoring games throughout the modern history of TTFFL (that means the history since we switched to an ESPN-hosted site.  Nothing important happened prior to that, other than the Ninjas' consecutive titles in 2007, 2008, and 2009, which no, I never intend to stop talking about).

So . . . . Here's a list of every single game where a team has scored 100 points or more since 2010:

1. 131.8: Ninjas vs Screaming Eagles, 2016 week 3
2. 121: Yac Attack vs Grahams, 2011 week 2
3. 118: River Horses vs Grahams, 2010 week 10
4. 115: Atomnation vs Marauders, 2010 week 10
5. 113: Ninjas vs Strike Team, 2010 week 16 (consolation game)
6. 112: Screaming Eagles vs Ninjas, 2013 week 1
7. 112: Puttheads vs Diablos, 2011 week 14
8. 110: Strike Team vs Screaming Eagles, 2011 week 1
9. 110: Puttheads vs Diablos, 2011 week 1
10. 109: Air Apparent vs Little Choo Choo, 2013 week 9
11. 108: Harbaughs vs Marauders, 2015 week 3
12. 108: River Horses vs Puttheads, 2010 week 11
13. 107.4: Suspended Atomnation vs Los Diablos, 2016 week 1
14. 106.8: Los Diablos vs AirMex, 2016 week 2
15. 106: Screaming Eagles vs Harbaughs, 2015 week 15
16. 106: Grahams vs Air Apparent, 2014 week 4
17. 106: Yac Attack vs Puttheads, 2011 week 4
18. 104: AirMex vs Marauders, 2014 week 13
19. 104: Strike Team vs Leviathans, 2014 week 8
20. 103: Diablos vs AirMex, 2014 week 6
21. 103: Ninjas vs Diablos, 2012 week 9
22. 101: Moist Spots vs Screaming Eagles, 2015 week 12
23. 101: Ninjas vs Marauders, 2013 week 13
24. 101: Ninjas vs Marauders, 2012 week 8
25. 100.9: Grahams vs Marauders, 2016 week 1
26. 100: Hollow Graham's vs Screaming Eagles, 2014 week 8
27. 100: Atomnation vs Eagles, 2013 week 15
28. 100: Atomnation vs Marauders, 2013 week 4

It's kind of interesting to note that (ahem) the Psychotic Ninjas lead the pack with 5 100+-point performances.  No other owner has more than 4.  Specifically, it shakes out as:

• Ninjas: 5
• Atomnation: 4
• Jody (under various names): 4
• Taylor (under various names): 3
• Aaron (under various names): 3
• River Horses: 2
• Screaming Eagles: 2
• Los Diablos: 2
• Golden Graham's: 2

And Levi and Merrill have NEVER broken the century mark in a game.  Levi at least has the excuse (kind of) that he hasn't been with the league all of those years --- but he only missed 2010, so . . .

Anyway, since I was looking up high-scoring games, I figured I might as well look at low-scoring games as well.  Here are all of the games in which a team failed to score at least 30 points:

1. 29: Graham's vs Leviathans, 2012 week 16
2. 29: River Horses vs Team Datanator (remember him?), 2011 week 8
3. 28: Air Apparent vs Ninjas, 2013 week 7
4. 28: Puttheads vs River Horses, 2012 week 16
5. 28: Suspended Atomnation vs Team Datanator, 2012 week 9
6. 28: Screaming Eagles vs Puttheads, 2010 week 13
7. 28: Yac Attack vs Golden Graham's, 2010 week 8
8. 27: Air Apparent vs Team Harbaughs, 2015 week 16
9. 27: Screaming Eagles vs Moist Spots, 2015 week 3
10. 27: Hollow Graham's vs Leviathans, 2014 week 4
11. 27: River Horses vs Atomnation, 2014 week 4
12. 27: Los Diablos vs Graham's, 2012 week 12
13. 24: Ninjas vs Marauders, 2015 week 2
14. 24: River Horses vs Air Apparent, 2014 week 7
15. 22: Yac Attack vs Screaming Eagles, 2010 week 4
16. 19: Suspended Atomnation vs Screaming Eagles, 2012 week 4
17. 12: River Horses vs Diablos, 2013 week 16 (NOT a Toilet Bowl game, but it damn well should have been)

Breaking it down, here is how often each of the league owners has fallen into this particular chasm of molten suck:

• River Horses: 4
• Taylor (under various names): 4
• Atomnation: 2
• Screaming Eagles: 2
• Jody (under various names): 2
• Ninjas: 1
• Los Diablos: 1
• Golden Graham's: 1

So while Levi and Merrill never achieved the lofty 100+-point threshold, they have also successfully avoided sucking horribly.  Of course, Aaron and Mex have avoided this as well --- although Mex has only been in the league for 2 years of the modern era.  So if you squint hard enough, it kind of looks like Aaron has been the most successful owner, with 3 100+-point games and NO sub-30-point games.

And he also has 2 titles during that time, making him the only owner with multiple titles in the modern era.  So there's that too.

AND FINALLY . . .

During the draft Kubicek wondered whether anyone had every won a league title relying on Lions players.  And the answer is a surprising 'yes'.

In 2010, Jody won the first title of the modern era with Calvin Johnson.  Okay, okay, so obviously Calvin was a stud.

The surprising part is that Pete won the title in 2011 with several Lions on his roster.  He drafted Jahvid Best, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew, and added the Lions DST and Nate Burleson along the way.  Titus Young was a complete bust, unsurprisingly, but all of the other Lions played key roles in his season.  Jahvid Best was a productive RB1 until he suffered a career-ending concussion in week 6 --- at which point, Pete successfully robbed me blind in a trade, giving me Best for Marques Colston, who was a key element in his title run.  Brandon Pettigrew and Nate Burleson both made solid if unspectacular contributions at various points during his season.

Lions have not played a critical role in any championship run since then.  In 2012, Strike Team drafted Nate Burleson and started him only once, when he scored 0 points.  In 2013, the Ninjas drafted no Lions but picked up Ryan Broyles off waivers at some point, and started him one time in which he also scored 0 points.  In 2014 Los Diablos took the title without drafting or ever once starting a Lion (big surprise there).  And finally, last year Aaron claimed his second title after drafting Joique Bell.  Bell started two games for the Moist Spots and scored a total of just one point.

So in summary --- Kubicek is right that Lions players have tended to be rather useless recently, but they have not always been useless.

And this year, of course, there's Marvin Jones.  Right, Kubicek?

I swear Taylor asked for this.

Some Negatives of the New Scoring Rule

I'll try to remember to bring this to everyone's attention closer to the start of 2016, but now that we've adopted new scoring rules which award points for every yard passing, rushing and receiving, it's good to keep in mind these negatives as well.  Here are a couple of questions I sent off to ESPN, along with answers:

If an RB rushes for -6 yards (say), will his total be recorded as -0.3 points, or 0 points?

Anthony L replies: In the situation you provided, the RB would have -.3 points

If my QB is sacked for an 8-yard loss, does that deduct 0.4 points from my score?  Or does it count as a passing play, so rushing totals are not affected?

Ryne S replies: Any time a quarterback is sacked it will count as negative rushing yards. For example if you quarterback is sacked for -8 yards you would get -.4 points for this play.

Thank you for attending this edition of ESPN answers your scoring questions.

Big Changes for 2016?

From the Time Machine . . . .

As I write this, Demariyus Thomas just caught his fourth TD of the year, the first offensive TD the Broncos have scored in 25 drives.  Also, it's looking like a damn shame the Ninjas and Golden Graham's didn't make the playoffs, because they are blowing the rest of the league off the map, and might make for a very interesting title game matchup.

Instead, they'll just have to battle for *yawn* the #1 overall pick next year.

But enough complaining about my disappointing finish in 2015.  I'm sure you've heard enough of that already by now.  The focus here is the future, and laying out some (significant!) possible rule changes for 2016.  I'm going to lay out proposals in three areas: Scoring, Playoff Qualifications, and Number of Playoff Teams.

Scoring
This should be simple.  There's been some discussion about keeping score at a finer granularity, for the sake of (mostly) eliminating ties.  While I acknowledge that ties can make things interesting as far as playoff qualifications, I would pretty much love it if we never had another game end in a tie.  My reasons for this are fairly selfish, however --- I just hate it when two or more teams tie for the high score in a week, and I have to split the $15 prize that week.

Anyway, ESPN allows us to keep score by the yard, rather than in increments of 20 or 50 yards, and I think we should, if for no other reason than it's the 21st freaking century (assigning points for every 10, 20, 50 yards, etc. is an artifact of the unreliability of statistics in fantasy football's early days, combined with the need to make it easier on early commissioners to compute point totals).  By the time you read this, there should be a poll up on the league web site.  Voting 'Yes' will change the scoring as follows, effective at the start of the 2016 season:

• 0.02 points for each yard passing
• 0.05 points for each yard rushing or receiving
• All other scoring remains as it is today.

This is the same scoring system we have today, except that now every yard counts --- for passing, rushing and receiving, anyway.  Ideally, we would change things so that all field goals from 1-30 yards count for 3 points, and all other field goals count a 0.1 points per yard --- but unfortunately, ESPN can't handle that level of granularity for field goal scoring.

It has been correctly pointed out that if we adopt this system, every now and then you'll end up losing a game when your QB kneels at the end of a game, thus subtracting a few tenths of a point from your final score.  Just keep in mind that those tenths of a point are points you don't even have in the current system.

So why don't you mosey on over to the league website and cast your vote right now, before you read the rest of my ideas, before you forget?  It's okay, I can wait.

Playoff Qualifications
Every year, someone outscores their record.  Anecdotally, it seems to me that at various times, Jody and Taylor have each scored tons of points while only winning maybe a half-dozen games or so.  This year, Kevin and Merrill each scored in the neighborhood of 1,000 points while wining only 8 and 6 games respectively, and missing the playoffs.  Now, the fact that Merrill is kind of getting screwed this year is definitely an argument in favor of leaving the playoff system exactly as it is.  But if you feel like performance should be rewarded --- even in the case of Merrill --- read on.

There are multiple possible ways to adjust the playoff seeding to make sure performance is rewarded.  My favorite, and the one I think we should consider adopting, is something I'll call the 'zebra' system.

I call it the 'zebra' system because playoff seeding is determined by alternating best won-loss record (with tiebreaker, obviously) with most points.  Under our current 4-team playoff system, it would look like this:

1. #1 seed: Team with the best record at the end of the season.
2. #2 seed: Remaining team with the most points on the season.
3. #3 seed: Remaining team with the best record.
4. #4 seed: Remaining team with the most points.

I've played in a league for the past two seasons which uses this system, and I think it's a nice system.  It guarantees that you make the playoffs if you have one of the two best records OR one of the two highest point totals.  And if you're not in the top 2 for scoring or won-loss record, you really can't complain about missing the playoffs.

An alternate approach is to use something I'll call a 'multi-game' format.  In this system, the playoff seeds would still be determined strictly using won-loss record like we do today, but each team would play twice as many games each week.  In addition to your usual game, you would get an additional win or loss depending on whether your point total was in the top half or bottom half of scores for the week.  The teams with the top 6 scores would get an additional win, while the teams with the bottom 6 scores would get an additional loss.  This way, if you score the second-most points in a week where you lose to the high-point scorer, your record for the week would be 1-1 (and his would be 2-0).  This system helps to insure that your won-loss record more accurately matches how well your team has performed.

This system has a couple of minor drawbacks, however.  I'm pretty sure ESPN isn't set to track the additional wins and losses, which means I'd have to do it on the blog (and you all would need to double-check my work).  The other problem is that we would need to hammer out what 'top 6 scores' and 'bottom 6 scores' mean.  What happens if three teams tie for the 6th-highest score?  Do they all get an additional win, or an additional loss --- or, heaven help us, a tie?  This will be less of a concern if the new scoring rules are adopted, but we still need to have a rule in place just the same.

Number of Playoff Teams
We've already had a vote to keep the number of playoff teams at 4, so maybe this isn't even worth discussing.  But I want to throw out a proposal which I think might be ideal in some ways.

We *could* expand the league to 14 teams.  Finding another couple of owners shouldn't be a problem, especially if we start looking in July (we could probably mine a couple of owners out of Battlin' Sweethearts).  Why is this a good idea?  Mostly because we could then move to a 13-game regular season schedule, in which every team plays every other team once.  It has always bugged me that our current schedule requires us to play some teams twice and all of the others once --- if I happen to get stuck playing a really dominant team twice, I'm at a disadvantage; and on the flip side, if I'm lucky enough to play a pathetic team twice, it gives me an advantage.

And of course, adding 2 more owners increases the size of the prize pool.  In fact, if we decide to go down this path, I'd like to increase league dues to $75 a year, for a prize pool of $1050.  We could award a really nice championship prize with that much money.

So with a 14-team league, there's a level playing field.  A ripple effect of this change, though, is that we move to a 13-game regular season, and so we would pretty much have to put either 6 teams (top two seeds get a first-round bye) or 8 teams in the playoffs.  We would determine playoff seeding using whichever method we decide on (zebra, multi-game, or the current system).

Conclusion
So there you have it.  We're already voting on changing the scoring to be more granular, and we have some things to discuss about playoff qualifications and (potentially) league expansion and the size of the playoff field.

But there's no reason to stop there.  I have at least three other changes I'd like to make, including moving to an auction draft, using blind auction bidding for waivers pickups, and changing the RB/WR flex position to a 'superflex', which could be any offensive position.  And if there's significant support for any of those changes, we can go ahead and hold a vote on it.  But I think these changes are enough to get the discussion going.

2015 End-of-Year Accounting

Happy New Year everyone!  And just about everyone has something to be happy about in the new year, because just about everyone won something in 2015!

Note that I said 'just about' everyone.  See if you can find the odd man out.

• Aaron is the big winner, of course.  In addition to taking the league title, he also scored the most points (or perhaps I should say 'the moist points') in weeks 8 and 12.  This brings his total winnings to $330.  Subtract off $60 for 2016 TTFFL dues, and $50 for 2016 Battlin' Sweethearts dues, and his net is $220. Check mailed 01/08/2016.
• Mex took second place ($120), and scored the most points in week 10 ($15).  So his total winnings are $135.  Subtract $60 for 2016 and his net is $75. Check mailed 01/08/2016.
• Adam took third place, which is good for $60.  He also won week 9 for another $15.  So his net is $75, minus $60 for next year's dues, for $15.  Check mailed 01/25/2016.
• Kubicek actually didn't win anything in this league, but he DID take the title in Battlin' Sweethearts.  After subtracting various 2016 dues, he nets a total of $40.  Check mailed 01/25/2016.
• Jody actually won the most weeks this year, which is a bit surprising, seeing as he ended up playing in the Toilet Bowl.  Just the same, he gets $45 credit toward 2016 since he won weeks 2, 3 and 16.  So he owes $15 before the start of the 2016 season.
• Kevin is close on his brother's heels, winning weeks 4 and 11, and sharing the win (with Levi) for week 6.  So he has a credit of $37.50 toward 2016 dues, and will owe $22.50 before the start of the season.
• Pete won weeks 1 and 13, and so gets a credit of $30 toward 2016 (and still owes $30 for 2016).
• Merrill is in the same position, as he won weeks 7 and 14.  He owes $30 for 2016.
• Taylor may no longer have control of his team's name, but at least he gets a $15 credit for winning week 5.  He owes $45 for 2016.
• Similarly Jason, who won week 15 despite having the league ass-draggingest crappy team, will owe $45 in 2016.
• Levi's only claim to fame is his share of the highest score week 6, when he tied with Kevin.  He will owe $52.50 in 2016.

Everyone double-check your total to make sure I have it right.  Assuming I do, it looks like I need a mailing address for Aaron, Mex, Adam and Kubicek.

The draft order for 2016 is available here.

Please remember that, per league agreement, our draft will be held the night before the kickoff for the season.  I believe this means our draft will occur on Wednesday, September 7 at 8:30 PM EDT!!!

Finally, the next post you see in this space will discuss a list of possible rule changes for 2016.  Look for it to show up here within 24 hours.

Happy New Year, everyone!

Hail to the Moist Spots!!!

Moist Dermatitis is a skin condition in dogs.

In my 9 years in the TTFFL, I have seen a lot of amazing things.  Like a newbie winning the title in each of his first 3 years in the league (I forget which owner did that).  But Aaron has accomplished something that even the amazing Psychotic Ninjas have never accomplished --- and never will!  He won the league title one year after finishing in last place, and having his team ignominiously renamed to The Moist Spots.

Well done, Aaron.

This is a fitting end to what has probably been the craziest season of fantasy football I've ever played.  I've already pointed out the high degree of roster turnover among the league's best teams, partly due to injuries (Andrew Luck, Marshawn Lynch, LeVeon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Dez Bryant, Peyton Manning --- the list goes on and on), and partly due to outright sucking (C.J. Anderson, DeMarco Murray, Demariyus Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Hill, Randall Cobb, Peyton Manning --- the list goes on and on).  But another thing I've noticed is how easily the season could have ended differently.  Just about every team in the league could have claimed the title with just one or two different decisions.

The Moist Spots are the champs, of course, but Mex would have pulled it out if Antonio Brown and Ted Ginn played in week 16 (combined total of 3 points) a little more like they did in week 15 (37 points).  Similarly, Adam would have taken the championship easily if he had made it to the title game, which he would have done if he had picked Teddy Bridgewater off of waivers and played him in the semifinal round instead of T.J. Yates.

Continuing on down the line, the only thing that kept the River Horses out of the title game was the fact that he sucked really, really badly in the semifinal game --- Mex nearly doubled his score --- and then continued his powerful sucking into the final round.  Hey, I said 'just about every team' could have claimed the title --- not ALL of them.

But consider the 5th-place Golden Graham's.  They would have won the title had they made it to the title game, and would have won in the semifinals against Aaron if he had made it into the playoffs as the #4 seed.  So the only thing keeping the title out of Kevin's hands is the fact that he started DeAndre Hopkins in week 14 instead of Michael Floyd.  So cheer up, Kevin! You were only one bad decision away from the title!

And lest anyone think I'm picking on Kevin, the same holds true for your esteemed commissioner, who only missed the playoffs by starting Vincent Jackson over Allen Hurns and Tyler Lockett in week 14.  Of course, it also would have helped if Thomas Rawls hadn't gotten hurt, or Vincent Jackson hadn't gotten hurt, or if Cam Newton threw a TD to Greg Olsen once in a while, or if the Dolphins gave Lamar Miller more than five freakin' carries in the second half of their game against the Giants, after he rushed for more than 7 YPC with two touchdowns in the first half.

If any one of those things had just gone slightly differently, I would be claiming my fifth title right now.  Not that I'm bitter.  And since Jason decided to have his one good game of the year last week, when I posted my highest point total, it has now been exactly two years since I won a damn thing in this league.  Again, not that I'm bitter.

It looks like Levi really wasn't that close to claiming the title.  Like father, like son, I guess.  Merrill wouldn't have won the title, but could have finished second if not for a run of bad luck in weeks 11-13, when he lost by 6, 5 and 3 points.  Jody probably could have managed a better finish than 6-8, maybe.  And Taylor, Kubicek and Jason certainly could have been more competitive if they had paid someone to draft for them.

At any rate, congratulations once again to The Moist Spots.  I look forward to finding out what name he'll give to Taylor for his team next year.  And speaking of next year, the draft order will be:

1. Golden Graham's
2. Psychotic Ninjas
3. Leviathans
4. Merrill's Marauders
5. Screaming Eagles
6. Los Diablos
7. Team Harbaughs
8. The Team Formerly Known as Air Apparent
9. Orion River Horses
10. Suspended Atomnation
11. ~AirMex~
12. The Moist Spots (or Strike Team, or . . . ?)

Moist or Mex?

You don't want to know what I found when I Googled for 'Mexican Moist Spots'

This year has the potential to be a first in the TTFFL (at least in the modern era, which began in 2007).  If Aaron and his Moist Spots defeat Mex next week, he will have accomplished the league's first-ever worst-to-first finish from one year to the next.

The matchup promises to be a thriller, as Aaron and Mex were two of FIVE teams to score 87 or more points last week --- a stunning display of fireworks.  If history is any guide, the championship will likely be a 23-21 defensive battle.

In the other brackets, the Ninjas and Graham's --- two of the other high scorers this week --- will duke it out for next year's #1 overall pick, and in the upset of the weekend, Jason (with a mind-boggling high score of 106 points this week) and Kubicek both avoided the toilet bowl, which will feature Taylor against Jody --- who has a chance to finish last for the third time in the last 4 years.

When all of the fireworks is over --- sometime around New Year's Eve --- watch this space for a typically wordy discussion of possible rule changes for 2016.

Playoff Matchups

Just a quick hit here --- I guess Pete really showed me with his resounding 73-46 victory over Jason.  I guess I reverse-jinxed him.  So, in that spirit, I bet Kubicek is going to beat the living daylights out of Taylor this weekend!

Anyway, congratulations to this year's playoff qualifiers, The Moist Spots, River Horses, Mex and Suspended Atomnation!

Moving on down, one of these teams will get the first overall pick in next year's draft: Golden Graham's, Psychotic Ninjas, Leviathans and (*sigh*) Merrill.

And one of *these* teams will be playing with a different name next year: Team Harbaughs, Air Apparent, Los Diablos and Screaming Eagles.

Remember, if any playoff game ends in a tie, the higher-seeded team is declared the winner.  I had to rearrange playoff matchups a bit to make sure the correct teams were playing each other --- I don't know whether the system might have sent out a notification of some sort.

Good luck, everyone!

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

What are the ingredients for success in fantasy football?

Some of the things are obvious (prepare for your draft), and some are more subtle (mind your position on the waiver wire).  Most are directly related to the game of football (pay attention to all the games and each player's performance), but some are more arcane (you can't be named "Taylor" or "Merrill").

Over the weekend, I noticed a startling fact about the teams in our league.  There has been a LOT of waiver wire activity, but some teams have definitely made more use of the waiver wire than others.  In fact, four teams in the league have more than *HALF* of their rosters pulled from the waiver wire:

1. Supended Atomnation: 14 waiver-wire players
2. ~ Airmex ~: 12
3. The Moist Spots: 11
4. Psychotic Ninjas: 10

Is it just a coincidence that these are four of the top 6 teams in the league (another top-6 team, the River Horses, has 8 waiver-wire players)?  Does it mean that these owners are better at spotting hot prospects than the rest of the league, or does it just mean they're more proactive team managers?  Or maybe, does it just mean that they suck at drafting?

Of course, a lot of waiver wire activity doesn't necessarily guarantee success.  Take Taylor, for example, with his 8 waiver wire adds.

Whatever it takes to succeed, I guess.  I have to admit, I was getting a bit nervous last night as I watched Matt Cassel consistently NOT throw the ball to Dez Bryant.  If Bryant had put up a doughnut, I still would have tied with Merrill, but it probably would have ended my season, and that would have been an especially crappy way to go --- with my brilliant early-season trade for Bryant dooming me.

And really, who wants their fantasy season to end with a tie?  No one.  Am I right, Mex?

Fortunately, that didn't happen.  Unfortunately, I'm still on the outside looking in as far as playoffs are concerned.  The season-ending playoff scenarios are as follows:

The Moist Spots fell to the River Horses last week, but it doesn't really matter.  Aaron could probably bench all of his players next week, take the loss and the zero, and he would still get in unless Pete scores 124 and I score 126.  In other words, congratulations on clinching a playoff spot, Aaron.

Suspended Atomnation will clinch a playoff spot with a win OR losses by two out of Golden Graham's, River Horses, Psychotic Ninjas or Mex.

Golden Graham's only need to win to clinch a playoff spot, thanks to their huge point advantage over the River Horses and Ninjas.  They will also clinch with a loss if two out of the River Horses, Ninjas and Mex lose.

River Horses clinch with a win, unless Ninjas also win and outscore the River Horses by 3 or more points.  Both can clinch with a win and a loss by the other, or by Graham's, or Atomnation.

I'm going to predict right now that Pete loses to league cellar-dwellar Jason --- currently the lowest-scoring team in the league by almost 200 points --- because if Jason knocked Pete out of the playoffs, it would be really, really funny.

Finally, ~ Mex ~ will clinch a playoff spot with a win and losses by two of the teams ahead of him (Atomnation, Graham's, River Horses, Ninjas).  If Atomnation is one of those teams that loses, Mex also needs to retain his lead in points.

And that's it.  The rest of y'all can huddle together and come up with suggestions for Jason's team name next year, to give to the eventual league champion 

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

Insane.  In.  Sane.

I was expecting some clustering as we neared the season's end.  What I didn't expect was for half of the teams to cluster more near the TOP while the other half clustered more near the BOTTOM.

1. Moist Spots: 9-3, 858 points
2. Suspended Atomnation: 8-4, 778 points
3. Golden Graham's: 7-5, 843 points
4. ~ AirMex ~: 7-5, 794 points
5. Psychotic Ninjas: 7-5, 744 points
6. Orion River Horses: 7-5, 721 points
7. Merrill's Marauders: 5-7, 824 points
8. Team Harbaughs: 5-7, 754 points
9. Leviathans: 5-7, 751 points
10. Air Apparent: 4-8, 723 points
11. Los Diablos: 4-8, 719 points
12. Screaming Eagles: 4-8, 514 points

Let's get the easy stuff out of the way first.  All of the 4-8 teams are done.  All of the 5-7 teams are out with one more loss.  And even if Merrill, Jody or Levi win both of their remaining games, they still need at least THREE of the 7-5 teams to lose both remaining games AND finish with more points than all of them.

So let's focus on the teams with a prayer, shall we?

Moist Spots haven't finally, formally, without-a-doubt mathematically clinched a playoff spot yet, but the only way they miss is if they lose both remaining games; at least THREE of the 7-5 teams win both remaining games, and all three of those 7-5 teams finish with more points  than Aaron.  Given that Aaron already has 100+ more points than the Ninjas and River Horses, it's safe to say he'll finish in the top 4.

Given his 80-point lead over Adam, it's likely he clinches the #1 seed with one more victory.

Suspended Atomnation needs to win both remaining games to be assured a playoff spot, although just one more victory will likely be enough, since it's unlikely that three of the 7-5 teams will win out with enough points to outscore Adam.

And then there were --- the Graham's, Mex, the Ninjas and the River Horses.  Surprisingly, none of them play any of the others in the last 2 weeks, so they could all finish anywhere between 7-7 and 9-5.  So the final 2 weeks for these teams will resemble a kind of demolition derby --- we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Finally some observations . . . One great joy of fantasy is to score the most points the same week you're playing the guy who scored the second-most.  Almost as good is when you score the second-fewest points on a week when you play the team scoring the fewest.  Thanks for making last week fun, Taylor!

Also . . . man, I've made some bad trades in my day, but I bet Jody's really regretting his trade where he gave up Matthew Stafford for Matt Ryan.  It didn't make any difference to the results this weekend --- both Mex and Jody won --- but it's still looking like a big win for Mex at the moment.

And Merrill, Jody --- since you guys are out of the running anyway, there's no reason you need to put up your A game the rest of the year.  Rest your starters, let some hungry up-and-comers show what they can do.  No point sacrificing the future just for the sake of some meaningless wins which won't help you anyway.