Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

The Leviathans continued their second-half faceplant, and Mex continued his second half winning streak, defeating the Leviathans 92-54.

It's turning out to be another exciting finish to the TTFFL season, as going into week 13 we find NINE teams within two games of each other at the top of the league standings.  We can thank the Leviathans for some of that for dropping 3 games in a row.  The rest of the thanks goes to Taylor, Jody and especially Merrill for letting the Ninjas, Los Diablos and Kevin get away with victories to keep them all in the running at 6-6.  Of course, 9 teams still in the running means more complexity to the playoff scenarios, but I'll do my best to unwind it.

The Leviathans: The Leviathans aren't officially in the playoffs yet, but it would take a near-miracle for them to miss, even if they don't win another regular season game.  The reason is the huge lead they still have in total points scored.  Even if they lose their remaining games to Kevin and Merrill, ONE of the 6-6 teams would need to win both of their remaining games AND score enough points to finish with more points than Levi.  The only 6-6 team with a realistic shot at doing that is Merrill, and if he wins out, then Mex will finish no better than 8-6, and likely with fewer points than Levi.

So, Levi will probably be in the playoffs, but only as the #4 seed at the rate he's going.

Suspended Atomnation: Adam makes the playoffs with just one more win, either this week against Taylor or next week against the Ninjas.  If he should lose both of those games, he'll still get in unless some 6-6 team wins out and beats Adam in terms of points.  As things stand, it looks like Merrill, Jody and Kubicek are the only 6-6 teams with a shot at outscoring Adam.  It's also fairly likely at least one of those guys wins out, so just to play it safe Adam, you should plan to beat Taylor this week, then rest your players for the playoffs when you go up against the Ninjas in week 14.

Air Apparent: When we get to the 7-5 teams, things get interesting.  Two wins will clinch a playoff spot for both Taylor and Mex.  With a single win, Taylor would also make the playoffs unless Mex and Merrill both win out --- and that can't happen since Mex and Merrill play each other this week.

So Taylor is almost certainly in unless he loses BOTH of his remaining games against Adam and Jason, and if that happens, he is almost certainly out (you have to believe at least one of the five 6-6 teams would win out and take the #4 seed in that event).

~ AirMex ~: In pretty much the same situation as Taylor, but with 50 fewer points.  Two more wins also puts Mex in the playoffs --- and as the proud owner of a 6-game win streak, that seems likely.  But if Mex picks up just one more win, it will come down to points between Mex, and whatever other teams finish 8-6.  Given Merrill's high point total, a 2-game losing streak will put an end to Mex's season.

Merrill's Marauders: King of the 6-6 teams, Merrill is the only only one who still has a decent playoff shot if he only manages one more win.  This is due to two factors: A) With 825 points, he is second only to Levi in points scored for the season, and B) He plays Mex this week.  A victory over Mex will give Merrill the tiebreaker advantage over Mex, Jody, Kubicek, Kevin and YEC.  This week's game against Mex also means that Merrill is the only 6-6 team who is guaranteed a playoff spot if he finishes 8-6.  And it goes without saying that losses to Mex and Levi will end Merrill's season.

Hollow Graham's, Los Diablos, Golden Graham's and Psychotic Ninjas: Unlike Merrill, these 6-6 teams can't rely on high point totals to bail them out of a loss.  If I sat down and crunched the numbers, I might be able to find a way for one of them to sneak into the playoffs at 7-7, but the reality is that each of these teams needs to win out to have any hope of participating in the big dance, and even then there's no guarantee.

Orion River Horses, Screaming Eagles and Strike Team: Better luck next year, guys.  At least Pete and Jason have an outside shot at competing for next year's #1 pick.

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

Just a reminder that the Ninjas are the defending champs.  This may be the final week they're relevant for a good long while.

This is the time of year I usually love, as I go through all of the possible playoff scenarios.  This year I'm having more difficulty loving it, as most of the scenarios don't include the Ninjas.

Really, Jonas Gray scores 34 ON MY BENCH?!?  And I wouldn't have won even if I played him?  Sooo frustrating!  Freaking ridiculous.

Anyway.  Here's how things stand for everyone with 3 weeks left in the season:

Leviathans - The last time I posted an update, I discussed how unstoppable The Leviathans seemed to be.  Since then, they've gone 1-3.  With their huge lead in total points scored --- more than 100 points ahead of everyone but Merrill --- they're still almost a lock to make the playoffs no matter what.  Winning 2 of 3 guarantees them a playoff spot, and barring some miraculous scoring by Taylor or Adam, they'll also lock up and the #1 seed.  Even one more win probably gets them into the playoffs barring remarkable 3-game winning streaks with tons of points on the part of Merrill and Jody.

So we can all expect to see The Leviathans in the playoffs, but they do need to stop the bleeding.

Air Apparent - After a 3-3 start, Taylor has won 4 of his past 5, putting him in second place and putting him in perfect position for his usual late-season nosedive.  Winning his last 3 puts him in the playoffs, obviously, with either the 1 or 2 seed, depending on what Levi does.  But that won't happen, because he faces THE MIGHTY NINJAS this weekend.  Two wins also likely puts him in the playoffs, unless Jody and either Mex or the Marauders win their final three games.  A week 13 matchup with Adam, also 7-4,  will keep things interesting.

Suspended Atomnation - At 7-4, in the same boat as Taylor, including the week 13 matchup which could knock one of them out of the playoff hunt.

Merrill's Marauders, Hollow Graham's, AirMex - At 6-5, one of these teams is almost certain to make the playoffs --- but which one?  After starting the season 1-5, Mex has coming ROARING back to get back in the hunt at 6-5, so watch out this weekend, Levi!  Next weekend pits Mex against Merrill, in a game which is very likely to bump one of them out of the playoffs.  At a minimum, each team in this tier needs two victories to keep their playoff hopes alive, and three to feel really confident about participating in the postseason.

Los Diablos, Golden Graham's, Psychotic Ninjas - At 5-6, it is almost certain that the next loss for any of these teams will be the last meaningful game they play in 2014.  Of the three, the Golden Grahams have the toughest path ahead of them, with matchups against three teams with winning records, including the league-leading Leviathans.  After a strong start to the season, Los Diablos have managed just one win in their past 5 games, that victory coming last week in an embarrassing 37-36 decision over The Leviathans.  After their bout this week with the Hollow Graham's, Los Diablos finishes off the 2014 regular season with what should be easy victories over Strike Team and the River Horses (past champions' curse!).

As for the Ninjas --- well, whatever.  If they make it to the postseason, they'll need to earn it with victories over the 2nd-place Air Apparent and 3rd-place Atomnation, as well as beating up on the Screaming Eagles.

It's hard to say at this point exactly what scenario will put any of these teams into playoff contention, or leave them out in the cold.  Obviously more wins are better.  But depending on how things fall, each of these teams could win their final three games and miss the postseason, or win only two of them and grab the #4 seed.  We do know for sure, however, that 2 wins are an absolute minimum requirement for playoff viability.

Screaming Eagles, Orion River Horses - While Jason just never really got things going this season, Pete would be doing just fine if we could ignore a 6-game losing streak from weeks 4 through 9.  However, since we can't, both of these guys see their seasons on life support, Needing 3 straight wins plus a lot of help to make the postseason.  I won't say it's impossible for one of them to make it, but I will say that it's probably more realistic for them to focus on playing for next year's #1 draft pick.

Strike Team - Some team has to be the first one out every year, and this year it's Aaron's Strike Team.  While on paper there's a theoretical possibility that he could win out and sneak into the big dance at 6-8, the practical reality is that three teams already have 7 or more wins, and since Merrill and Mex play each other in week 13, that guarantees at least 4 teams will finish better than Strike Team.

So Aaron should really focus on trying to get that #1 pick, or at least focus on finishing higher than the bottom four, to BREAK THE PAST CHAMPIONS CURSE!!!  Jody seems to be recovering, but his last title was in 2010.  Pete, Aaron, help me out here, guys!

And that rounds out the playoff picture going into week 12 for the TTFFL.  Good luck to everyone but Taylor, and we'll see you again next week!