Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

The Leviathans continued their second-half faceplant, and Mex continued his second half winning streak, defeating the Leviathans 92-54.

It's turning out to be another exciting finish to the TTFFL season, as going into week 13 we find NINE teams within two games of each other at the top of the league standings.  We can thank the Leviathans for some of that for dropping 3 games in a row.  The rest of the thanks goes to Taylor, Jody and especially Merrill for letting the Ninjas, Los Diablos and Kevin get away with victories to keep them all in the running at 6-6.  Of course, 9 teams still in the running means more complexity to the playoff scenarios, but I'll do my best to unwind it.

The Leviathans: The Leviathans aren't officially in the playoffs yet, but it would take a near-miracle for them to miss, even if they don't win another regular season game.  The reason is the huge lead they still have in total points scored.  Even if they lose their remaining games to Kevin and Merrill, ONE of the 6-6 teams would need to win both of their remaining games AND score enough points to finish with more points than Levi.  The only 6-6 team with a realistic shot at doing that is Merrill, and if he wins out, then Mex will finish no better than 8-6, and likely with fewer points than Levi.

So, Levi will probably be in the playoffs, but only as the #4 seed at the rate he's going.

Suspended Atomnation: Adam makes the playoffs with just one more win, either this week against Taylor or next week against the Ninjas.  If he should lose both of those games, he'll still get in unless some 6-6 team wins out and beats Adam in terms of points.  As things stand, it looks like Merrill, Jody and Kubicek are the only 6-6 teams with a shot at outscoring Adam.  It's also fairly likely at least one of those guys wins out, so just to play it safe Adam, you should plan to beat Taylor this week, then rest your players for the playoffs when you go up against the Ninjas in week 14.

Air Apparent: When we get to the 7-5 teams, things get interesting.  Two wins will clinch a playoff spot for both Taylor and Mex.  With a single win, Taylor would also make the playoffs unless Mex and Merrill both win out --- and that can't happen since Mex and Merrill play each other this week.

So Taylor is almost certainly in unless he loses BOTH of his remaining games against Adam and Jason, and if that happens, he is almost certainly out (you have to believe at least one of the five 6-6 teams would win out and take the #4 seed in that event).

~ AirMex ~: In pretty much the same situation as Taylor, but with 50 fewer points.  Two more wins also puts Mex in the playoffs --- and as the proud owner of a 6-game win streak, that seems likely.  But if Mex picks up just one more win, it will come down to points between Mex, and whatever other teams finish 8-6.  Given Merrill's high point total, a 2-game losing streak will put an end to Mex's season.

Merrill's Marauders: King of the 6-6 teams, Merrill is the only only one who still has a decent playoff shot if he only manages one more win.  This is due to two factors: A) With 825 points, he is second only to Levi in points scored for the season, and B) He plays Mex this week.  A victory over Mex will give Merrill the tiebreaker advantage over Mex, Jody, Kubicek, Kevin and YEC.  This week's game against Mex also means that Merrill is the only 6-6 team who is guaranteed a playoff spot if he finishes 8-6.  And it goes without saying that losses to Mex and Levi will end Merrill's season.

Hollow Graham's, Los Diablos, Golden Graham's and Psychotic Ninjas: Unlike Merrill, these 6-6 teams can't rely on high point totals to bail them out of a loss.  If I sat down and crunched the numbers, I might be able to find a way for one of them to sneak into the playoffs at 7-7, but the reality is that each of these teams needs to win out to have any hope of participating in the big dance, and even then there's no guarantee.

Orion River Horses, Screaming Eagles and Strike Team: Better luck next year, guys.  At least Pete and Jason have an outside shot at competing for next year's #1 pick.