Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

Just a reminder that the Ninjas are the defending champs.  This may be the final week they're relevant for a good long while.

This is the time of year I usually love, as I go through all of the possible playoff scenarios.  This year I'm having more difficulty loving it, as most of the scenarios don't include the Ninjas.

Really, Jonas Gray scores 34 ON MY BENCH?!?  And I wouldn't have won even if I played him?  Sooo frustrating!  Freaking ridiculous.

Anyway.  Here's how things stand for everyone with 3 weeks left in the season:

Leviathans - The last time I posted an update, I discussed how unstoppable The Leviathans seemed to be.  Since then, they've gone 1-3.  With their huge lead in total points scored --- more than 100 points ahead of everyone but Merrill --- they're still almost a lock to make the playoffs no matter what.  Winning 2 of 3 guarantees them a playoff spot, and barring some miraculous scoring by Taylor or Adam, they'll also lock up and the #1 seed.  Even one more win probably gets them into the playoffs barring remarkable 3-game winning streaks with tons of points on the part of Merrill and Jody.

So we can all expect to see The Leviathans in the playoffs, but they do need to stop the bleeding.

Air Apparent - After a 3-3 start, Taylor has won 4 of his past 5, putting him in second place and putting him in perfect position for his usual late-season nosedive.  Winning his last 3 puts him in the playoffs, obviously, with either the 1 or 2 seed, depending on what Levi does.  But that won't happen, because he faces THE MIGHTY NINJAS this weekend.  Two wins also likely puts him in the playoffs, unless Jody and either Mex or the Marauders win their final three games.  A week 13 matchup with Adam, also 7-4,  will keep things interesting.

Suspended Atomnation - At 7-4, in the same boat as Taylor, including the week 13 matchup which could knock one of them out of the playoff hunt.

Merrill's Marauders, Hollow Graham's, AirMex - At 6-5, one of these teams is almost certain to make the playoffs --- but which one?  After starting the season 1-5, Mex has coming ROARING back to get back in the hunt at 6-5, so watch out this weekend, Levi!  Next weekend pits Mex against Merrill, in a game which is very likely to bump one of them out of the playoffs.  At a minimum, each team in this tier needs two victories to keep their playoff hopes alive, and three to feel really confident about participating in the postseason.

Los Diablos, Golden Graham's, Psychotic Ninjas - At 5-6, it is almost certain that the next loss for any of these teams will be the last meaningful game they play in 2014.  Of the three, the Golden Grahams have the toughest path ahead of them, with matchups against three teams with winning records, including the league-leading Leviathans.  After a strong start to the season, Los Diablos have managed just one win in their past 5 games, that victory coming last week in an embarrassing 37-36 decision over The Leviathans.  After their bout this week with the Hollow Graham's, Los Diablos finishes off the 2014 regular season with what should be easy victories over Strike Team and the River Horses (past champions' curse!).

As for the Ninjas --- well, whatever.  If they make it to the postseason, they'll need to earn it with victories over the 2nd-place Air Apparent and 3rd-place Atomnation, as well as beating up on the Screaming Eagles.

It's hard to say at this point exactly what scenario will put any of these teams into playoff contention, or leave them out in the cold.  Obviously more wins are better.  But depending on how things fall, each of these teams could win their final three games and miss the postseason, or win only two of them and grab the #4 seed.  We do know for sure, however, that 2 wins are an absolute minimum requirement for playoff viability.

Screaming Eagles, Orion River Horses - While Jason just never really got things going this season, Pete would be doing just fine if we could ignore a 6-game losing streak from weeks 4 through 9.  However, since we can't, both of these guys see their seasons on life support, Needing 3 straight wins plus a lot of help to make the postseason.  I won't say it's impossible for one of them to make it, but I will say that it's probably more realistic for them to focus on playing for next year's #1 draft pick.

Strike Team - Some team has to be the first one out every year, and this year it's Aaron's Strike Team.  While on paper there's a theoretical possibility that he could win out and sneak into the big dance at 6-8, the practical reality is that three teams already have 7 or more wins, and since Merrill and Mex play each other in week 13, that guarantees at least 4 teams will finish better than Strike Team.

So Aaron should really focus on trying to get that #1 pick, or at least focus on finishing higher than the bottom four, to BREAK THE PAST CHAMPIONS CURSE!!!  Jody seems to be recovering, but his last title was in 2010.  Pete, Aaron, help me out here, guys!

And that rounds out the playoff picture going into week 12 for the TTFFL.  Good luck to everyone but Taylor, and we'll see you again next week!