Saturday, December 31, 2016

Scoring Records Update for 2016

You may recall that several weeks back, I did an analysis of total points scored in the modern TTFFL.  Well, since I'm currently sitting at my sister-in-law's house in Virginia with nothing to do, I thought I'd update that analysis now that the 2016 season has concluded.  Here we see the point totals for the past 7 TTFFL seasons, with all point totals prior to 2016 adjusted upward by 56 points to adjust for the scoring change which occurred in 2016:

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Aaron 1014 1122 1044 1029 924 1238 948.7
Adam 1110 1072 1028 1209 1102 1100 1236.6
Dave 1184 1097 1128 1273 1011 1090 1325.7
Jason 1037 1012 1148 1241 1065 852 1045.9
Jody 1164 1229 1077 893 1074 1073 1143.4
Kevin 951 1020 953 1163 1003 1220 1172.2
Levi N/A 1059 1151 1115 1137 1059 809.6
Merrill 1142 1001 1037 1060 1112 1172 961.5
Mex N/A N/A N/A N/A 1092 1125 1150.3
Paul 1127 1089 1084 915 1070 972 1070.6
Pete 1147 1005 947 935 960 1047 1004.1
Taylor 897 1279 1175 1125 1046 985 1115.5

Recall that each season's champion is marked in bold, while the high-scorer for the season is marked in italics.

One thing worth noting here is that 2016 was a historic season in a couple of ways.  For one thing, Levi's season was historically bad.  His 809.6 points --- barely more than 50 per game --- was the lowest in the history of the league, and only the fourth time a team failed to break the 900-point barrier in a season.  It was so bad, in fact, that even if you throw out the 56-point score adjustment for seasons prior to 2016, it still just barely ranks as the second-worst season of the modern era, just ahead of Jason's (non-adjusted) 796 point in 2015.  A splendid display of inertia.

Of course, the thing everyone SHOULD be marveling at and admiring is the amazingly high point total the Amazing Psychotic Ninjas tallied, besting the previous record of 1279 adjusted points Taylor put up in 2011!  Way to go, Ninjas!  It's not a title, of course, but it's still something worth bragging about!! Woo-hoo!  Are those Ninjas something or what?!?  I'm sure they're the heavy favorite to take home the title next year!!!!!ONE!

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Apparently No One Will Beat Adam

This was my favorite of all the images which popped up when I Googled 'Suspended Atomnation'

One thing you can say about Adam: he knows when to turn it on.

Out of 16 games played this season, Adam scored 70 points or more in all but 5 of them.  Two of those 5 were his two losses (against YEC in week 6 and Diablos in week 13), two of those were wins against pathetic teams (Trumbore the Younger in week 5 and Trumbore the Elder in week 11), and the last was his week 14 bye.

Week 14 was especially egregious.  That was the week Adam scored a whopping 36.4 points, once again only outscoring the Trumbores.

(By the way, what's up with the Trumbores?  I know they live in Michigan --- are they anywhere near Flint?  Can they blame their crappy 2016 seasons on the water?  Someone help me out here).

ANYWAY --- the point is that Suspended Atomnation shined when it mattered, outscoring nearly every team in the league (any guesses about the TOP scorer championship week?  Anyone?  Anyone?  Bueller?) on his way to his first TTFFL title.

His reward?  Other than the $300 first prize and the last pick in next year's draft?  He gets to pick a name and avatar for Levi's team (there's the Trumbores sucking again), who let Jason off the hook in the Toilet Bowl, scoring a measly 31.8 points and leaving no doubt to his claim as worst team in the league.  Congratulations, Leviathans (insert embarrasing name here).

As predicted, Kevin prevailed over Merrill to grab the top pick next year.  And in the consolation matchup, Your Esteemed Commissioner (yes, it was me, okay?!?  *I* scored the most points in championship week, for all the good it did me, what with not being in the championship.  Thanks for rubbing it in!) overcame lackluster play from Rob Kelley and Malcolm Mitchell to grab 3rd place, and the $60 and 10th overall pick that come with it.

I swear, this playoff season has been so frustrating.  What's the point in being a dominant team during the regular season and scoring the most points in the league if you're just going to get turfed out of the playoffs?  Screw that, I'm not ever doing that again.  I'm going back to sneaking into the playoffs with a 6-7-1 record and scoring a pair of improbable upsets to claim the title.  That's WAY more fun.

Look for the usual breakdown of accounting sometime in the next week or so, followed by the usual season in review.  Until then, congratulations again to Adam, and have a happy new year!

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Will Jody Please Beat Adam?

No, actually I don't care any more.

This post is going up a bit later than planned, and many of you may think the reason is that I spent all day yesterday sitting around sulking about my semifinals loss.  I wish.  Don't get me wrong; it's been a quite annoying season --- in THREE LEAGUES I was dominant all season, racking up double-digit victories and scoring the most points.  Then in both Battlin' Sweethearts and TTFFL, I lose my first playoff game.

(I actually won the title in the other league I dominated.  And I was in a fourth league where I finished only 7-6, and lost my first playoff game again.  Thanks for asking.)

At least in Battlin' Sweethearts, I got my ass well and truly kicked.  It was far more frustrating here, to get close but not get the cigar.  So I did *some* sulking about the losses, but that's not why I'm a day late posting.  No, sadly, the reason you got radio silence from me yesterday is that I got a flat tire driving home from work, and so I spent 5 lovely hours sitting around a garage sulking about my bad luck trying to get service on my car at 4:30 on a weekday afternoon without an appointment.  It was both a joy and a thrill.

However, I'm sure the only thing you enjoy hearing less than me bitching about my team is the tires on my car.  So instead of discussing that, I'll talk about the teams who are still IN the playoffs.  Oh heck, I'll talk about all of the playoff matchups.

As noted in the title, Team Harbaughs snuck into the finals, and will have the last shot at defeating Adam this season.  Since I no longer have a chance to win the title, I don't care whether Adam wins or loses, other than the fact that the mere existence of his team has been a thorn in my side all season.  That and, oh yeah, if I had gotten the #1 seed I truly deserved, then I would have played the hapless Mex in the semifinals, so I WOULD be in the finals now.  So go to it, Jody!   Rip him a new one!  Make him sorry he'd ever won 11 games in the regular season!

The consolation matchup, of course, features that gracious competitor the Psychotic Ninjas against the hapless Mex.  Given the way my season is turning out, I expect that next week I shall outscore absolutely everyone in the league EXCEPT Mex, who will club me to death in a 123-122.9 slugfest.

Moving on, the battle for next year's top pick is a good one, the 98th matchup this season (or so it seems) between Merrill and Kevin.  Obviously there are bragging rights on the line, but this is a rivalry that will live on into 2017, when Kevin and Merrill can take turns sniping each other in the draft, regardless the outcome of this playoff game.

Polly Prissy Pants will fight Los Diablos for the third overall pick next year, with similar sniping implications.

Things start to get interesting when rounding out the final four --- or I suppose I should say the 'bottom four'.  Aaron defeated Levi to avoid a first-to-worst slide, which is kind of a shame.  His worst-to-first performance from 2014 to 2015 is the stuff of legend; dropping back to the bottom in 2016 would have been a feat for the ages.

To be honest, I was really hoping for an all-Trumbore Toilet Bowl matchup.  Not only would have been a nice family theme for the holidays, but it would have been doubly amusing to see both Pete and Levi fall to the two worst teams in the league.  Unfortunately, Pete managed to win his semifinal matchup, so Levi will be the only Trumbore in the Toilet Bowl, going up against the Stinking Screaming Eagles.

After next week's championship festivities, there will of course be the usual folderol and nonsense, and efforts on my part to pay money to some of you.  But until then, have a happy holiday season, and best wishes to all in their games this weekend.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

DST Scoring question

There was a question this week about scoring in the Atlanta/Kansas City game.  Two questions, actually.

The first concerns a KC fake punt on 4th-and-1 from their own 45-yard line in the 3rd quarter.  Long-snapper James Winchester snapped the ball directly to punt protector Albert Wilson, who proceeded to take the ball 55 yards for a touchdown.

The second concerns the game-sealing pick-two runback of a two-point conversion try by Eric Berry near the end of the game.

For both of these plays, the question is: how many points should the Chiefs DST get, and did ESPN score the plays correctly?

First, the fake punt.  The correct scoring for this play is that the DST should get 0 points, and ESPN scored it correctly.  The reasoning is that a fake punt or fake field goal is no different from a team deciding to go for it on fourth down.  In fact, when a team decides to run a fake punt/fake field goal, they have *clearly* decided to go for it on fourth down --- they're just hiding that fact from their opponent.  So even though the punting unit is on the field, scoring a TD on a fake punt (or fake field goal) is no different from the QB throwing a TD on fourth down.  It's still properly scored as points for the offense, not the DST.

(Things get complicated if there's ever a fumble on a punt, or a blocked field goal.  If there's ever a change of possession, then for fantasy purposes BOTH teams are considered DST --- even if Drew Brees throws an interception, and the intercepting player fumbles, and then a Saints WR picks up the fumble and returns it for a score.  In such a scenario, that's scored as a TD for the Saints DST [and the Saints WR, of course], even though their offense is on the field.  The same principle applies for blocked kicks/punts or fumbles of a punt/kickoff return.)

The case of the pick-two is a bit murkier.  Logic tells you that the DST should get 2 points for an interception, and 2 points for the conversion at the end of the return.  However, the NFL does not consider the 'interception' of a 2-point conversion try to be a real interception.  See Matt Ryan's stat line for the game from NFL.com:


The one interception listed here is from the pick-6 Berry returned earlier in the game.  So if the NFL doesn't count an interception of a 2-point conversion attempt as a 'real' interception, then neither does ESPN, and neither will we.

However, the KC DST DOES deserve an additional 2 points, since Berry returned the conversion attempt and scored 2 points for his team (Meachem Rule).  So I will add 2 points to the Chiefs DST for this week, and then I'll try to remember to adjust the league scoring so that such scores are automatically in the future.

Playoffs, Baby!!!

There is a certain poetic justice in my loss to Levi last week.  For one thing, it kept the #1 seed out of my hands.  And it was the ONLY thing keeping the #1 seed out of my hands, since Kubicek managed to hand Adam only his second defeat of the season, thus clearing the way for me to claim my rightful place atop the league, if only . . . .

If only.

Then there's the fact that my biggest trade of the season was sending the dynamic Detroit duo of Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones over to Levi in exchange for Odell Beckham and Russell Wilson.  That looked like a pretty good trade for me until Week 12, when Wilson ran into the teeth of the mighty Buccaneers defense (who knew?).  And things didn't get better this week, when Wilson and Beckham combined for 16 points, compared to Stafford's 19.9.

I like to think that Levi left an injured Marvin Jones in his lineup just to spite me, to prove that he could beat me with only 8 players.  True, he was probably off drinking beer or something and ignoring his lineup, but I like to THINK he did it to spite me.

Whatever the reason for the outcome, Adam claimed his #1 seed, and I'm stuck with the stupid old #2 seed.  And the rest of the seeds are as follows:
  1. Suspended Atomnation
  2. Psychotic Ninjas
  3. Los Diablos
  4. Golden Graham's
  5. Team Harbaughs
  6. ~ AirMex ~
  7. Leviathans
  8. Polly Prissy Pants
  9. Orion River Horses
  10. Merrill's Marauders
  11. Screaming Eagles
  12. Strike Team
Unlike with the Battlin' Sweethearts League, the ESPN software actually got these seeds correct.  But it doesn't matter, because it's fairly clueless about playoff matchups.  For one thing, it wants to pair up Eagles and Strike Team for a consolation game, and there's nothing I can do to change that.  But trust me when I say that both of those guys have a bye this week.  The result of their 'game' has no impact on anything.

I've rearranged the matchups so that everyone who IS playing a game is matched up against the correct opponent.  At the end of this week, the highest-seeded winner of the playoff teams will play Psychotic Ninjas in the semifinals, and the lowest-seeded winner will play Atomnation.  Similarly, the highest-seeded LOSER of the consolation games will play Strike Team in week 15, and the lowest-seeded LOSER of the consolation games will play Eagles.

And the remaining 4 teams will have a playoff for the top seed, with matchups based on their seeding.  What could be simpler?  However, all of these seed-based week 15 matchups mean that I'll probably have to shuffle things around again after week 14.

Remember, the higher-seeded team is declared the winner in the event of a tie (which is unlikely to happen with the new scoring system, but still).  And also remember that the highest-scoring team wins $15 this week, just like every other week, even if you're on bye.  So set your best lineups, no matter who you play in week 14!

Saturday, December 3, 2016

More History --- Scoring Records

Earlier this year, I documented the highest and lowest-scoring games in the modern era of the TTFFL.  Continuing with the theme of historical research, I would now like to present the records for most/fewest points scored in a season in the modern era.  In fact, I'll present total scores for every team for every year of the modern era:

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Aaron 958 1066 988 973 868 1182 696.8
Adam 1054 1016 972 1153 1046 1044 980.2
Dave 1128 1041 1072 1217 955 1034 1036.3
Jason 981 956 1092 1185 1009 796 772.4
Jody 1108 1175 1021 837 1018 1017 879.6
Kevin 895 964 897 1107 947 1164 886.8
Levi N/A 1003 1095 1059 1081 1003 640.3
Merrill 1086 945 981 1004 1056 1116 693.1
Mex N/A N/A N/A N/A 1036 1069 891.4
Paul 1071 1033 1028 859 1014 916 800.6
Pete 1091 949 891 879 904 991 795.5
Taylor 841 1223 1119 1069 990 929 827.6
.
The top scorer for each season is indicated in italics, and the champion for a given season is in bold.  The totals for this year are incomplete, obviously.

Additionally, as I mentioned earlier, now that we're scoring points for every yard gained and lost, each QB, RB, WR and TE is scoring average of about half a point per game more than they did in previous seasons.  So to make a more accurate comparison, the totals prior to 2016 should be normalized upward by 3.5 points per game, or 56 points per season.  After making that adjustment, the totals look as follows:

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Aaron 1014 1122 1044 1029 924 1238 696.8
Adam 1110 1072 1028 1209 1102 1100 980.2
Dave 1184 1097 1128 1273 1011 1090 1036.3
Jason 1037 1012 1148 1241 1065 852 772.4
Jody 1164 1229 1077 893 1074 1073 879.6
Kevin 951 1020 953 1163 1003 1220 886.8
Levi N/A 1059 1151 1115 1137 1059 640.3
Merrill 1142 1001 1037 1060 1112 1172 693.1
Mex N/A N/A N/A N/A 1092 1125 891.4
Paul 1127 1089 1084 915 1070 972 800.6
Pete 1147 1005 947 935 960 1047 795.5
Taylor 897 1279 1175 1125 1046 985 827.6

Now, you may think that I'm only posting this because I'm on track to absolutely CRUSH Taylor's current record of 1279 adjusted points in a season.  And you'd be right about that.  But you can also draw some other conclusions from this data.  For example, winning the title in a year when you score the most points is more common than you might think (me in 2013, Aaron last year).  And also, if you can't score at least 1000 points in a season, you're really fairly worthless.  So nanny-nanny boo-boo Jason, Paul, and Taylor from last year.

Obviously I'm only talking about how worthless you are if you failed to score 1000 total points on the adjusted scale.  Everyone can miss in the old scoring system every now and then.  Like in 2014, for example.