Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

The playoff picture cleared up a bit after week 13, when The Leviathans and Suspended Atomnation were the first teams to clinch playoff spots --- helps a bit when you win a game, doesn't it Levi?  Unfortunately, clarity is not such a good thing for the Marauders, Golden Graham's and Ninjas, who aren't officially eliminated yet --- but who all face long odds of participating in the postseason.

But that's not a problem, is it Han?

Anyway, here's the usual team-by-team breakdown heading into the final week of the season:

Leviathans: Clinch the #1 seed with a win, unless Adam also wins and outscores Levi by 59 points or more.  Take the #2 seed with a loss and Atomnation win --- or Atomnation outscoring them by 59+ points.

Suspended Atomnation: As noted above, can claim the #1 seed with a win and by outscoring The Leviathans by 59+ points.  A win without an insane number of points will give Adam the #2 seed.  A loss also gives Adam the #2 seed, unless Mex also wins and outscores Adam by 24 or more points, in which case he takes the #3 seed.

~ AirMex ~: Proud owner of an INSANE 7-game win streak, AirMex is ON FIRE!  They're the hottest team in the league right now, coming off a 92-54 win over the league-leading Leviathans and a 104-84 win over Merrill.

Mex can grab the #2 seed with a win and an Atomnation loss if Mex outscores Adam by 24+ points.  Otherwise, a win puts sets up Mex as the #3 seed.  With a loss, Mex could end up anywhere between the #3 seed to the #5 seed (and out of the playoffs), depending on whether Taylor and Jody win, and on how many points they score.

Air Apparent, Hollow Graham's, Los Diablos: There's a fair chance at least one of these guys will win their matchup this weekend.  If only one team gets the W, that team is in the playoffs.  If two or three of them get wins, the final two playoff spots will be determined by points and whether Mex wins his game.

In the unlikely event that ALL THREE of these teams lose this weekend to finish 7-7, the door is opened for Merrill to claim the final playoff spot.  Speaking of which . . . .

Merrill's Marauders: The ONLY way the Marauders get into the playoffs is if Taylor, Jody and Kubicek all lose, and Merrill wins.  Technically we need to be concerned about points, but since Merrill leads all of these guys by 63 points or more, that's not likely to be an issue.

Merrill is also at the tipping point, in that his chances of winning the title are roughly the same as his chances of slipping into the losers bracket and losing the Toilet Bowl.

Golden Graham's, Psychotic Ninjas: Not technically, OFFICIALLY eliminated yet, but the path to the playoffs for either of these teams only exists in a fantasyland which can only be realized by a miracle (like, say, starting four Jonas Grays in the same week).  For either of these teams to claim the #4 spot will require, AT A MINIMUM:

• A win in week 14.
• Losses by Air Apparent, Hollow Graham's and Los Diablos
• A loss by Merrill, and outscoring Taylor by 87 points, OR
• Outscoring Merrill by 150+ points.

The good news for each of these teams is that there are much more realistic scenarios which will lead them to next year's #1 overall pick.  The bad news for each of these teams is that it's about equally likely that they lose the Toilet Bowl and have to play out next season using a name picked out by Levi.

Screaming Eagles, Orion River Horses: Between these two teams, , Merrill's Marauders, Golden Graham's and Psychotic Ninjas, three of them will finish in the loser's bracket.  The Eagles and River Horses are guaranteed to play in the loser's bracket with a loss; they can play their way into the race for 2015's #1 pick with a win depending on whether any of the 6-7 teams lose and how the points fall.

Let's hope that at least one of the Ninjas and River Horses (okay --- the Ninjas) play their way out of the loser's bracket and avoid the past champions' curse.  Speaking of which:

Strike Team: Guaranteed to start the postseason at the bottom of the loser's bracket, Aaron is still trying to recover from his 2012 TTFFL title.

Good luck everyone! I'd really love to see the Golden Graham's or Ninjas beat the odds and make the playoffs; it would be epic.

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

The Leviathans continued their second-half faceplant, and Mex continued his second half winning streak, defeating the Leviathans 92-54.

It's turning out to be another exciting finish to the TTFFL season, as going into week 13 we find NINE teams within two games of each other at the top of the league standings.  We can thank the Leviathans for some of that for dropping 3 games in a row.  The rest of the thanks goes to Taylor, Jody and especially Merrill for letting the Ninjas, Los Diablos and Kevin get away with victories to keep them all in the running at 6-6.  Of course, 9 teams still in the running means more complexity to the playoff scenarios, but I'll do my best to unwind it.

The Leviathans: The Leviathans aren't officially in the playoffs yet, but it would take a near-miracle for them to miss, even if they don't win another regular season game.  The reason is the huge lead they still have in total points scored.  Even if they lose their remaining games to Kevin and Merrill, ONE of the 6-6 teams would need to win both of their remaining games AND score enough points to finish with more points than Levi.  The only 6-6 team with a realistic shot at doing that is Merrill, and if he wins out, then Mex will finish no better than 8-6, and likely with fewer points than Levi.

So, Levi will probably be in the playoffs, but only as the #4 seed at the rate he's going.

Suspended Atomnation: Adam makes the playoffs with just one more win, either this week against Taylor or next week against the Ninjas.  If he should lose both of those games, he'll still get in unless some 6-6 team wins out and beats Adam in terms of points.  As things stand, it looks like Merrill, Jody and Kubicek are the only 6-6 teams with a shot at outscoring Adam.  It's also fairly likely at least one of those guys wins out, so just to play it safe Adam, you should plan to beat Taylor this week, then rest your players for the playoffs when you go up against the Ninjas in week 14.

Air Apparent: When we get to the 7-5 teams, things get interesting.  Two wins will clinch a playoff spot for both Taylor and Mex.  With a single win, Taylor would also make the playoffs unless Mex and Merrill both win out --- and that can't happen since Mex and Merrill play each other this week.

So Taylor is almost certainly in unless he loses BOTH of his remaining games against Adam and Jason, and if that happens, he is almost certainly out (you have to believe at least one of the five 6-6 teams would win out and take the #4 seed in that event).

~ AirMex ~: In pretty much the same situation as Taylor, but with 50 fewer points.  Two more wins also puts Mex in the playoffs --- and as the proud owner of a 6-game win streak, that seems likely.  But if Mex picks up just one more win, it will come down to points between Mex, and whatever other teams finish 8-6.  Given Merrill's high point total, a 2-game losing streak will put an end to Mex's season.

Merrill's Marauders: King of the 6-6 teams, Merrill is the only only one who still has a decent playoff shot if he only manages one more win.  This is due to two factors: A) With 825 points, he is second only to Levi in points scored for the season, and B) He plays Mex this week.  A victory over Mex will give Merrill the tiebreaker advantage over Mex, Jody, Kubicek, Kevin and YEC.  This week's game against Mex also means that Merrill is the only 6-6 team who is guaranteed a playoff spot if he finishes 8-6.  And it goes without saying that losses to Mex and Levi will end Merrill's season.

Hollow Graham's, Los Diablos, Golden Graham's and Psychotic Ninjas: Unlike Merrill, these 6-6 teams can't rely on high point totals to bail them out of a loss.  If I sat down and crunched the numbers, I might be able to find a way for one of them to sneak into the playoffs at 7-7, but the reality is that each of these teams needs to win out to have any hope of participating in the big dance, and even then there's no guarantee.

Orion River Horses, Screaming Eagles and Strike Team: Better luck next year, guys.  At least Pete and Jason have an outside shot at competing for next year's #1 pick.

Week 12 Playoff Scenarios

Just a reminder that the Ninjas are the defending champs.  This may be the final week they're relevant for a good long while.

This is the time of year I usually love, as I go through all of the possible playoff scenarios.  This year I'm having more difficulty loving it, as most of the scenarios don't include the Ninjas.

Really, Jonas Gray scores 34 ON MY BENCH?!?  And I wouldn't have won even if I played him?  Sooo frustrating!  Freaking ridiculous.

Anyway.  Here's how things stand for everyone with 3 weeks left in the season:

Leviathans - The last time I posted an update, I discussed how unstoppable The Leviathans seemed to be.  Since then, they've gone 1-3.  With their huge lead in total points scored --- more than 100 points ahead of everyone but Merrill --- they're still almost a lock to make the playoffs no matter what.  Winning 2 of 3 guarantees them a playoff spot, and barring some miraculous scoring by Taylor or Adam, they'll also lock up and the #1 seed.  Even one more win probably gets them into the playoffs barring remarkable 3-game winning streaks with tons of points on the part of Merrill and Jody.

So we can all expect to see The Leviathans in the playoffs, but they do need to stop the bleeding.

Air Apparent - After a 3-3 start, Taylor has won 4 of his past 5, putting him in second place and putting him in perfect position for his usual late-season nosedive.  Winning his last 3 puts him in the playoffs, obviously, with either the 1 or 2 seed, depending on what Levi does.  But that won't happen, because he faces THE MIGHTY NINJAS this weekend.  Two wins also likely puts him in the playoffs, unless Jody and either Mex or the Marauders win their final three games.  A week 13 matchup with Adam, also 7-4,  will keep things interesting.

Suspended Atomnation - At 7-4, in the same boat as Taylor, including the week 13 matchup which could knock one of them out of the playoff hunt.

Merrill's Marauders, Hollow Graham's, AirMex - At 6-5, one of these teams is almost certain to make the playoffs --- but which one?  After starting the season 1-5, Mex has coming ROARING back to get back in the hunt at 6-5, so watch out this weekend, Levi!  Next weekend pits Mex against Merrill, in a game which is very likely to bump one of them out of the playoffs.  At a minimum, each team in this tier needs two victories to keep their playoff hopes alive, and three to feel really confident about participating in the postseason.

Los Diablos, Golden Graham's, Psychotic Ninjas - At 5-6, it is almost certain that the next loss for any of these teams will be the last meaningful game they play in 2014.  Of the three, the Golden Grahams have the toughest path ahead of them, with matchups against three teams with winning records, including the league-leading Leviathans.  After a strong start to the season, Los Diablos have managed just one win in their past 5 games, that victory coming last week in an embarrassing 37-36 decision over The Leviathans.  After their bout this week with the Hollow Graham's, Los Diablos finishes off the 2014 regular season with what should be easy victories over Strike Team and the River Horses (past champions' curse!).

As for the Ninjas --- well, whatever.  If they make it to the postseason, they'll need to earn it with victories over the 2nd-place Air Apparent and 3rd-place Atomnation, as well as beating up on the Screaming Eagles.

It's hard to say at this point exactly what scenario will put any of these teams into playoff contention, or leave them out in the cold.  Obviously more wins are better.  But depending on how things fall, each of these teams could win their final three games and miss the postseason, or win only two of them and grab the #4 seed.  We do know for sure, however, that 2 wins are an absolute minimum requirement for playoff viability.

Screaming Eagles, Orion River Horses - While Jason just never really got things going this season, Pete would be doing just fine if we could ignore a 6-game losing streak from weeks 4 through 9.  However, since we can't, both of these guys see their seasons on life support, Needing 3 straight wins plus a lot of help to make the postseason.  I won't say it's impossible for one of them to make it, but I will say that it's probably more realistic for them to focus on playing for next year's #1 draft pick.

Strike Team - Some team has to be the first one out every year, and this year it's Aaron's Strike Team.  While on paper there's a theoretical possibility that he could win out and sneak into the big dance at 6-8, the practical reality is that three teams already have 7 or more wins, and since Merrill and Mex play each other in week 13, that guarantees at least 4 teams will finish better than Strike Team.

So Aaron should really focus on trying to get that #1 pick, or at least focus on finishing higher than the bottom four, to BREAK THE PAST CHAMPIONS CURSE!!!  Jody seems to be recovering, but his last title was in 2010.  Pete, Aaron, help me out here, guys!

And that rounds out the playoff picture going into week 12 for the TTFFL.  Good luck to everyone but Taylor, and we'll see you again next week!

The Season at the Midway Point

I'd like to write a team-by-team rundown of the first seven games of the season, but I don't have the energy to write it and, frankly, I'm fairly certain none of you have the energy to read it.  But I do want to cover some highlights.

It may require divine intervention to stop the Leviathans

Any discussion of the season needs to start with the absolute dominance shown by the Leviathans.  Not only are they the sole undefeated team at this point, they also lead the league in scoring, averaging better than 10 points per week better than the next highest scoring team, Los Diablos.  None of their victories have even really been close, with their smallest margin of victory coming in week 3 over AirMex, a harrowing 65-51 nail-biter.  Their dominance is actually a bit surprising, considering their roster.  Yes, they have studs in Peyton Manning, Arian Foster and Julius Thomas, as well as surprising emerging stars like Lamar Miller and Golden Tate, but beyond that the roster is pretty ordinary.

So, odds are the Leviathans will eventually fall.  The only real question is whether it happens in the playoffs, which they have all but clinched at this point.

The Leviathans probably WON'T get their first taste of defeat this week, however, as they happen to be playing the current cellar-dweller, Strike Team.  Stirke Team started off the season with 6 consecutive losses, but they picked up their first win against Golden Grahams, so maybe this will be the start of a run.  Or maybe not.

Somewhat ironically, Strike Team's closest neighbor at the bottom of the standings are the Orion River Horses, suggesting that the curse of the former champions (River Horses 2011, Strike Team 2012) is indeed real.  Not only do they trail the league by win-loss record, they are also the two lowest-scoring teams in the league.

This trend makes me more nervous than my own mediocre 4-3 record so far.

The good news is that while the Leviathans will almost certainly claim a playoff spot, and Suspended Atomnation has a leg up on the rest of the field, the league still has its usual glut of 3- and 4-win teams at this point of the season, meaning that the final 2 or 3 playoff spots are still up for grabs.  Why, I dimly recall a couple of years ago, some team in our league started the season 0-5, only to win their final 9 games and take the #1 seed for the playoffs (does anyone remember which team that was?).

So take a good look at your rosters --- and everyone else's --- figure out some intriguing trade possibilities, keep scouring the waiver wire, and bring your best game out for the next 7 weeks.

It will make it that much more satisfying when I claim the title yet again.

Just Sayin'

I know I probably won't get to name someone's team again next year, and if I do, that team probably won't be Aaron's.  But if I DO get to name Aaron's team next year, I think I'll call them 'The Suspenders'.

Maybe I'm the only who noticed this (besides Aaron --- eventually), but he probably set some kind of record by drafting THREE players who were suspended at the time of the draft.

I'm guessing that, when we drafted, Aaron didn't know that Wes Welker had been suspended, since that only happened barely 24 hours earlier.  And maybe he didn't know that Matt Prater had been suspended, either.  And hey, it's usually a good strategy to stock your team with Broncos players, right?

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure he DID know about Ray Rice's suspension.  Although (like all of us), he surely didn't know when he drafted Rice that Rice's suspension would be permanent.

Still.  I expect it will be a long time before we see another draft where one guy drafts three suspended players --- in the fourth, fifth and (kicker!) tenth rounds.  Well done, Aaron.

Can the Ninjas Repeat (Again)?

Does their 2013 TTFFL title spell doom for the Ninjas in 2014?

We all know how hard it is for an NFL team to repeat as Super Bowl champs.  No one has done it since the 2004 Patriots, and for that reason a lot of folks --- like Sports Illustrated's Peter King --- are saying the Seahawks can't repeat.

The same has been true in the TTFFL for the last four years.  Of course, prior to that, the MIGHTY PSYCHOTIC NINJAS ran off three straight titles.  Considering the Ninjas' dominance since joining the league 7 years ago, it might be interesting to examine how our most recent champions have fared in subsequent seasons:

• 2010 Champion: Puttheads - Since winning the title in 2010, Jody's team has finished fifth, last and last, and as a result, the name 'Puttheads' hasn't graced the league site or this blog very much in the past three years.  As Jody's avatar says, "I"m hopless, Obi-Wan!".
• 2011 Champion: River Horses - Since winning the title in 2011, the River Horses nearly managed a first-to-worst swoon the following year, narrowly ekeing out a Toilet Bowl victory over Jody by a 35-28 margin in a game that neither guy deserved to win.  He followed this up by finishing the 2013 regular season in the bottom four again, and while he finished 10th overall, he scored a staggering 12 points in his final game of the season, making a strong case for reconsidering the method we use to determine the ultimate loser for the year.
• 2012 Champion: Strike Team - Here's an interesting fact.  The Toilet Bowl matchup in 2012 featured the 2010 and 2011 champions in the Puttheads and River Horses.  The Toilet Bowl matchup in 2013 featured the 2010 and 2012 champions in Little Choo-Choo (formerly the Puttheads) and Strike Team.
• 2013 Champion: Psychotic Ninjas - Can the Ninjas break the past champions curse and avoid a Toilet Bowl matchup against the Hollow Graham's (formerly Little Choo Choo, formerly the Puttheads)?  Well, duh.  But I'm guessing some of you will have a lot of fun trying to guarantee a Ninjas appearance in the Toilet Bowl.

Why do TTFFL champions not only fail to successfully defend their titles, but experience year after year of stinking like a rotten trout after winning the title?  Is it the fact that they get stuck drafting in the final slot the subsequent year?  Is it some kind of curse?  Or is it just a coincidence that Jody, Pete and Aaron suddenly became really, really awful?

The upcoming season may shed some light on these questions.

Welcome to the 2014 Fantasy Season!!!

That's right.  There are four of them.  As in, four titles.

Seven years in the league.  Six playoff appearances.  Four titles.  I'm a little surprised you guys aren't sick of losing to me.

But since you're not, it's time to get ready for the 2014 Trash-Talking Fantasy Football League Season!!!

Fortunately, there's not a lot of discussion which needs to go on.  We have already settled on Wednesday, September 3 at 9:30 PM Eastern time for our draft, so there's no need to discuss that.  The draft order is available here, along with the 2013 accounting totals, which means that 2014 league dues are as follows:

• Taylor: $30
• Merrill: $35
• Kevin: $37.50
• Levi: $45
• Nick: $52.50
• Adam and Jason: Not a damn thing!
• Everyone else: The usual $60.

Dues can be submitted to the usual address:

David Bailey
4304 Lexington Pointe Parkway
Eagan, MN 55123

The biggest concern is for anyone who will not be participating in the fun and games this season.  If you fall into that category, I need to know ASAP so I can find a replacement owner (and if I owe you money, you need to tell me where to send it).  Otherwise, the only action you need to take at this time is to let the league know about any rule changes you might want to put up for a vote before draft day.  If you DO have rule changes to suggest, please notify the league ASAP so we can put them to a vote.

I'll send out a 2014 League Manifesto as soon as I can, probably tomorrow (hey, it's not like anyone reads it, amirite?)

Prediction Time

I just want to get this on the record ASAP --- I plan to update this post with an appropriate photo in a few weeks, but ---

Here's my fearless long-range forecast.  In February 2018, the mighty Minnesota Vikings will make history as the first team to win a Super Bowl in their home stadium.

Also, the Super Bowl LII MVP will be none other than Teddy Bridgewater, the Vikings' second first-round draft pick this year.

And Adrian Peterson will not play in the game.

The only remaining question is: What will everyone in the league give me when my prediction is proven correct?  Other than the mad props I so richly deserve?

Picking the Rams' Schedule

In case you haven't heard, the St. Louis Rams are giving away $100,000 to anyone who correctly predicts their schedule for the 2014 season.  Deadline for submission is 4:59:59 PM on Monday, April 21, full details available here.

Since I am a kind an benevolent TTFFL Overlord, I have decided not only to pass along this path to riches for all league members, but also to provide my analysis of what the Rams' schedule might be, so as to provide possible guidelines for anyone else who might want to participate in the contest.  Here are things we know absolutely for certain:

1. The Rams will host games against the following opponents: The Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, Cowboys, Giants, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders.
2. The Rams play away games against the following opponents: The Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, Eagles, Redskins, Buccaneers, Chiefs and Chargers.
3. The Rams will NOT play the Raiders in week 4, because the Raiders play the Dolphins in London that week.
4. Similarly, the Rams will NOT play the Cowboys in week 10, because the Cowboys play the Jaguars in London that week.
5. The Rams will NOT play the Cowboys in week 13 (Thanksgiving week), because the Cowboys are scheduled to host a Thanksgiving Day game, and we know that the Rams will play the Cowboys at home (item 1).
6. Whenever the Rams play at the 49ers new Levis stadium, that game will be on a Sunday.

Those are all the facts I've been able to uncover about the Rams' schedule.  What follows are some educated guesses about what is likely to happen.

1. As the defending Super Bowl champions, the Seattle Seahawks will play the first game of the season in prime time on Thursday, September 4.  This game will be a marquee matchup against a high-profile opponent --- and so it almost certainly will NOT be the Rams (FWIW, I predict it will be the Packers).
2. I expect the Raiders and Cowboys to both have their bye week following their London game, which means the Rams will NOT play the Raiders in week 5, and will NOT play the Cowboys in week 11.
3. Weeks 9, 10, 11 and 12 of the NFL season occur during fall 'sweeps week' for the Nielsens, and as such, the NFL will want to schedule as many high-profile games as possible during those four weeks.  Since no game featuring the Rams qualifies as a marquee matchup, I expect the Rams will have their bye during one of these weeks.
4. For the same reason, I expect that the high-profile teams on the Rams schedule will all play during weeks 9 - 12, and none of them will play the Rams during those weeks.  This means the Rams will NOT play the Seahawks, 49ers or Broncos during those weeks.
5. Finally, the NFL has gotten in the habit of scheduling all divisional games in week 17, since that tends to lead to a lot of good late-season matchups with playoff implications.  Since the 49ers and Seahawks are likely to be contending for the NFC West crown, that means the Rams will play the Cardinals in week 17.
6. Oh yes, one last thing.  In the name of fairness, the NFL typically does not schedule Thursday or Monday night games in week 17 (don't want the playoff teams to start off on a short or long week), which means the Rams' week 17 matchup against the Cardinals will occur on a Sunday.
7. And one other, really last, final thing (which probably goes without saying, but . . .).  Although the NFL has been known to schedule two games against the same opponent two weeks apart (e.g. the Rams play the 49ers in week 4 AND 6), they have never, ever, to my knowledge, scheduled two teams to play each other twice in consecutive weeks.

So . . . there 's some hard research, along with some educated guesses, which one can use to fill out a reasonable entry into the Rams scheduling sweepstakes.  It might also provide fodder for ridicule and/or boasting depending on how many of my educated guesses hit the mark, but despite the league's name, I've learned that really not a lot of trash talk goes on.

2013 Wrap-up

Sorry folks.  It seems I just don't have the time to do a thorough, team-by-team year in review for 2013 like I've done in the past.  On the plus side, that should also curtail the amount of gloating I do about my fourth league title in seven years ---

OR SO YOU MIGHT THINK!!!  NINJAS RULE!!!  BOOYAH!!!

Well, anyway, I still owe some money to some of you guys.  From the previous post, the totals are:

• Adam: $180 - $120 mailed 02/17/2014, remaining $60 pays 2014 league dues.
• Jason: $120
• Taylor: $30
• Kevin: $22.50
• Levi: $15
• Nick: $7.50
• Merrill: $25 (carryover from money he won in Battlin' Sweethearts)

I'm perfectly happy to apply all of this money as credit toward 2014 entry fees --- even for Jason, since he has $110 in league dues next year spread between TTFFL and Battlin' Sweethearts.

But Adam, I need an address for you so I can send you either $180 or $120.  Your choice.

I'll let this post serve as the official record of 2013 league accounting, and update it as necessary as I mail checks to people.  If I don't hear from you, your winnings will be credited to 2014.

Finally, under the rules for draft order which some idiot proposed, this is the draft order for 2014:

1. Rock-n-it Datarocknators (really?!?)
2. Golden Graham's
3. Merrill's Marauders (Merrill!)
4. Leviathans
5. Los Diablos
6. Orion River Horses --- despite only scoring 12 points in his final game of the season.
7. Strike Team
8. Jody's team --- to be named later
9. Air Apparent
10. Screaming Eagles
11. Suspended Atomnation
12. Psychotic Ninjas

I'll end this by noting that Aaron had to draft from the 12 hole in 2013 after winning the title in 2012, and look how well that ended up for him.  I must say, I'm not too optimistic about my chances of a SECOND straight title, never mind three in a row (good times, good times) with this draft order.  But it was my brilliant idea to set things up this way, so I guess I'll just have to live with it.

Get ready for some heavy-duty gloating if I take the title again next year!