The Season at the Halfway Point

Why do we play fantasy football?

I'm sure we all have different reasons.  We do it because it enhances the experience of watching football.  We do it because it makes us care about games we would otherwise ignore (Jags/Bills, for example, or Chiefs/Lions --- any game played in London, really).  We do it for the glory when we win, for the trash-talking when we lose, and for the money we might win now and then.

But mostly, fundamentally, we play fantasy football because it's FUN!  Okay, the losing part isn't so fun.  Drafting a first-round bust (Andrew Luck, Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson, DeMarco Murray) isn't so fun.  Losing games you should easily win isn't so fun.  But when you end up on the right side of any of those things, it makes all the rest of it worth it.

So in this mid-season summary, I plan to focus on fun.

For example, I'm guessing our defending toilet bowl champion, Aaron (aka Moist Spots) is having hella fun right about now.  There's been a lot of talk about a possible Past Champions Curse, in which previous year's champions drop to the bottom of the league (Jody x2, Aaron) or near it (Pete) in subsequent years.  (Your Esteemed Comissioner has thus far been immune to this curse). In fact, while we're on the subject, it's worth pointing out that the current defending champ, Kubicek, currently sits at 10th place in the standings.

But Aaron is on pace to complete what is possibly the first worst-to-first finish in league history, as he currently sits atop the league standings with the league's only 6-1 record --- and his last 5 victories haven't been close, with a margin of 16 points or more in each.

For those who haven't been paying attention, Aaron has been regularly posting trash talk on each of his opponents --- just about the only guy in the league (with Your Esteemed Commissioner a notable exception) who actually engages in trash talk in this, you know, trash talking league.  Yeah, I would say he's having fun.

I'm guessing Kevin is having fun, too, sitting at 5-2 when he's usually the butt of most of our jokes.  Of course, there's still half the season left to play, which gives him plenty of time to pile up the losses.  Plus he just lost to Merrill, which is a serious buzzkill (trust me).  Still, more good times than bad, year to date.

Rounding out the top 4, Mex and Adam were no doubt having more fun before week 7 than they are now.  Mex lost Arian Foster for the season, and Adam, well --- we'll get to Adam's bad week 7 in just a little bit.

Everyone else in the league is on the wrong side of the won-lost ledger, which means we're all having sads more weeks than we're having fun.  But there's still some fun things to point out.

For one thing, half the league sits at 3-4.  That's kind of a fun fact.  I've noticed this in the past; we have a tendency to cluster.  In fact, I predict that with the possible exception of Aaron, the top teams will fall back to the pack before the season ends.

I also predict that with the DEFINITE exception of Jason, the bottom teams will move up.  And there are a lot of fun facts coming out of Jason's current last-place position in the league (well, fun for everyone but Jason, that is).  Because if you haven't been paying attention, Jason's team sucks.  I mean, dear God does it suck.  It may possibly be the suckiest team ever in the history of sucking.

Here's one fun fact.  If you sort the teams in the league by points scored, Merrill sits at the top with 514 points, and the totals drop at fairly regular intervals down to Kubicek, in 11th place with 426.  So the difference between the most points and 11th-most is 88 points.

And in last place sits Jason with 247 points --- 179 behind Kubicek.  In other words, the difference from 11th to 12th is almost exactly TWICE as much as the difference between first and 11th.

Here's another fun fact.  Most weeks, you should expect to score 60-65 points to have a shot at getting a win in this league.  Jason's pathetic 247 points averages out to just a bit more than 35 points a week.  It's kind of a miracle Jason has won any games at all.

And coming to Jason's victories, THAT'S kind of fun, too --- at least to me.  His first victory was in week 4, when somehow Taylor managed to only put up 32 points despite Aaron Rodgers, Julio Jones and Martellus Bennett in his lineup (notably, Jason would NOT have won without his kicker --- Vinatieri accounted for one-third of Jason's points that week --- so Taylor is probably wishing we had followed my sage advice to eliminate them).

His second --- and probably final --- victory came this week over the 5-2 Atomnation, and was due almost entirely to a 28-point effort by Kirk Cousins, which was one more point than Jason's 8 remaining players combined.  His 55 point total will usually get you a victory in a week when your opponent plays like crap.  Which Adam did.

I don't mean to pile on Jason like this, but his team is really just stunningly bad (besides, piling on is FUN, which is the whole point, right?).  So I'll finish this review by noting one last fun fact which might make Jason feel better about his lost season.

Merrill has scored the most points in the league so far.  His 514 points doubles Jason's 247 with lots to spare.  And yet --- Merrill has only one more victory than Jason so far this year.  I don't know if it makes Jason feel any better, but it makes me laugh and laugh and laugh . . .

Happy Labor Day!!!

Only 3 days 'til the draft!  Can you feel the excitement?!?  Are you ready?!?  I certainly hope not!

I'm pleased to announce that I finally received the last of the 2015 league dues, from Adam, who seemed intent on making the most of this final season before the late-payment penalty goes into effect.  When I did finally receive his payment, he was thoughtful enough to include a hand-written, personalized note, which I found to be quite eloquent and moving:

I'm touched, Adam.  I truly am.

Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!!!

At the moment, the TTFFL is the Devil's house.  That needs to change.

So, how are things?  Everyone had a good winter?  Spring?  Summer?  Good, good.  But now, it's about to get even better, because the Steelers and Patriots kick of the 2015 NFL season in less than 10 weeks!  Woo-hoo!  Does everyone have their projections done?

Okay, okay, so.  The usual start-of season stuff:

1. The draft order is set here, and on the league site.
2. I seem to recall last year we held a vote to make the Wednesday night before the first game of the season our permanent draft night.  That would mean our draft will be held on Wednesday, September 9.  Does 8:30 EDT work for everyone?  Let me know.
3. A scheduling note: I'm traveling to the Grand Canyon over the weekend of September 26, 27, and so I will be incommunicado as far as doing commissionery things that weekend (there is no wifi on the floor of the Grand Canyon).  This shouldn't be a problem, since it seems I rarely need to do anything during the season other than approve the occasional trade, but if anyone has any concerns, let me know.
4. If anyone would like to suggest any rule changes, get them into me quick so I can hold a league vote.
5. MONEY!  You know how I love to get paid.  There is a full breakdown of finances here, but the summary is:

Jody: Wins the prize for being the only league member to owe the full $60 this year.  Good lord, I'm going broke with you guys.

Merrill, Kevin, Pete: Owe $30 apiece.  (Merrill also owes Battlin' Sweethearts dues, as detailed on that blog).

Taylor, Adam, Aaron: Owe $45 apiece (Aaron also owes Battlin' Sweethearts dues, as detailed on that blog).

Kubicek, Jason, Mex, Levi: Are already paid in full.  That needs to change.  Clearly I'm taking it too easy on you guys.

I guess the last remaining detail is the name for Aaron's team.  Kubicek, you're supposed to get him a new name and avatar by August 1, and Aaron, you're supposed to start using them no later than draft night.  Since Kubicek has had half a year to think about it, he's come up with something really great.

Or he's completely forgotten about it.  Most likely the latter.

2014 Year in Review

Before the usual nonsense, let's get the 2015 draft order out of the way:

1. The Jody McBodys (or whatever Jody chooses to name his team)
2. Psychotic Ninjas
3. Air Apparent
4. Merrill's Marauders
5. Screaming Eagles
6. Orion River Horses
7. Golden Graham's
8. Aaron's team (to be named later by Kubicek)
9. Suspended Atomnation
10. The Leviathans
11. ~ AirMex ~
12. Los Diablos

In case you've forgotten, then end-of-year accounting totals are available here.  And with the clerical business out of the way, let's review 2014 for . . . .

Strike Team: Much has been made of Strike Team's decline since claiming the 2012 TTFFL title.  Since that auspicious day in December 2012, Aaron has won a total of 10 games, and one of those was the 2013 Toilet Bowl, where Aaron narrowly avoided finishing last.  Well, he wasn't so lucky in 2014.  In his 12 total losses this season (including playoffs), most of those games weren't close, and all of them had margins of at least 6 points.

He got off to a rough start, drafting three suspended players (Ray Rice, Wes Welker and Matt Prater), as well as a number of just plain duds (Reggie Bush, Mike Tolbert, Mike Williams, Doug Baldwin, Donald Brown and Jordan Todman), and his studs weren't plentiful enough to overcome it.  So it's the end for the Strike Team, at least for 2015.  I wonder what their new name will be?

Golden Graham's: It's a complete mystery why the Golden Graham's finished just one win away from last place.  I'm pretty sure they drafted well and had a roster stocked with healthy, productive players all season, right?  I mean, if something had gone wrong for them somehow this season, I'm pretty sure Kevin would have mentioned it, wouldn't he?

Well, he DID draft Adrian Peterson in the first round --- and he only averaged 3 fantasy points per game.  He also had one or two players knocked out for the season with injuries, namely Victor Cruz, Danny Woodhead, Joe McKnight, Allen Robinson and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins.  And Giovani Bernard, Ben Tate and Reggie Wayne just sucked.

As a result, Kevin finished right about where we all expected him to.

Orion River Horses: Pete drafted reasonably well --- for three rounds.  After picking up Brees, Lynch and Colston (Pete loves him the Brees/Colston combo, he does), the rest of his draft was pretty much a waste of time, with Vernon Davis, Ryan Mathews, Cecil Shorts, Johnny Leaf Manziel and Eric Ebron all in the first 12 rounds.  But he tried like hell to improve his team via the waiver wire, picking up TWENTY-EIGHT free agents during the season.

It worked well enough to pick up 5 wins and avoid last place, but that's the best that can be said for the 2014 River Horses.

Screaming Eagles: The Eagles draft was also fairly horrible, with Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown as the only true studs Jason drafted in the first 17 rounds.  And unlike Pete, Jason didn't play the waiver wire very much (and his best pickup all season was Mohamed Sanu).  In fact, I was really struggling to figure out how Jason managed to finish the season with 4 straight wins (including playoffs), much less compile a 6-8 regular season record.

Then I noticed that Jason picked up a little-known wideout named Odell Beckham, Jr. in the final round of the draft.  Okay then.  Let this be a reminder to everyone that 18th-round picks aren't throwaway picks, and can mean the difference between a respectable season and utter disaster (or under different circumstances, the difference between a respectable season and a title).

Merrill's Marauders: In contrast to Jason, I look at Merrill's draft and wonder how he managed to finish only slightly better than Jason.  Sure, he drafted a few duds (Bishop Sankey, Jordan Cameron, Dwayne Bowe) and had some injury issues (Stevan Ridley, Brandon Marshall), but for the most part, his draft was solid (Charles, Marshall, Morris, Luck, Roddy White and the late pickup of Kelvin Benjamin).  There's no doubt Merrill had a good team --- he scored the second most points in the league.

It seems that Merrill's biggest obstacle this season was just bad luck --- in the form of the Brothers Graham.  Jody beat Merrill in an 87-84 squeaker in week 9, and Kevin followed that up with an even narrower 60-59 victory in week 12.  If Merrill had gotten the win in either of those games, he would have gone to the playoffs and finished second.

So Jody, Kevin, think of this as a bit of ground glass you can put in Merrill's wounds and rub on it any time Merrill gets too annoying (of course he would never do that).

Air Apparent: 2014 was a typical season for Taylor, by which I mean that he put his team in a strong position to win --- winning 7 games in the first ten weeks --- and then fell off the face of the earth, losing FIVE straight before finally beating Merrill in week 16 in a game that both guys probably didn't care about.

It's no coincidence that Taylor's season took a nosedive right about the time that Andre Ellington and Jimmy Graham more or less gave up for the season.  Which is too bad, because Taylor had the foresight to draft Jeremy Hill in the 9th round --- it's a shame has wasn't able to profit from that pick.  Still, all seven of Taylor's regular-season losses were earned; unlike Merrill, Taylor never lost a game by fewer than 5 points.

Whatever you might say about the half-dozen teams I've discussed so far, they all accomplished one feat that eluded the next two teams on the list: all of them outscored the league at least once during the season.

Psychotic Ninjas: Until this very minute, it was a mystery to me why my season was so mediocre.  And actually, I was lucky to make it even to 7-7 after scoring the fourth-fewest points in the league.

But then I looked back at my draft, and I see the problem.  Montee Ball in the second round --- he was mediocre-to-bad even before he got injured --- then Percy Harvin, Shane Vereen and Michael Floyd with picks 4-6 left me scrambling all season long.  Of course I had the sense to draft C.J. Anderson in the 14th round --- but it didn't do me a lick of good until week 10, by which point I had dropped him.  Thanks, guys, for letting me pick him back up again!

The irony here is that while usually I do a terrible job of making trades, this season I made at least two trades which clearly worked out in my favor: Percy Harvin for Justin Forsett, and Michael Floyd and Jonas Gray for Mike Evans.  But as was the case with Jody, Merrill and Taylor, it was a case of too little, too late, and the Ninjas ended up missing the playoffs for just the second time in 8 years.

Hollow Graham's: That's the name I meant for Jody to use, by the way.  'Hollow Graham's', not 'HOLLOW Graham's'.  Not sure why he decided to post it in ALL CAPS, but whatever.  As mentioned elsewhere, the fact that the Graham's and Ninjas finished 5th and 6th means there is no past champion's curse.  Or, considering the fact that Pete and Aaron continued to stink up the joint, maybe it just means that the curse only lasts three years, and the Ninjas are immune?

Anyway, Jody actually had a pretty solid draft.  C.J. Spiller, Darren McFadden and Jonathan Dwyer were his only real clunkers.  Jody's problem was partly just bad luck: In week 14, he lost 71-70 to the eventual league doormat Strike Team.  If that game goes the other way, we'd be talking about the amazing worst-to-first season for the Hollow Graham's and I would be spending way too much time talking about how Jody will get the chance to exact his revenge on Aaron for making him play the 2013 season as Little Choo-Choo.  Ironic that while Aaron wasn't able to avoid last place, he at least managed to prevent Jody from getting the title.

Jody's other problem was that he had the Eagles' quarterbacks.  I didn't think Sanchez would actually be a step down from Foles, but hey, I've been wrong before (see Ball, Montee, drafting of in second round).

Suspended Atomnation: The worst thing you can do is end the season in last place.  The second worst thing you can do, in my opinion, is finish fourth.  Sure, Adam didn't win any money, but at least he also has a crappy draft position next year.  It's a shame, too, because Adam somehow overcame a mediocre draft to be a legit contender, scoring the third most points in the league.

He went with a Packer-heavy draft strategy --- how the hell did we all let Adam pick up Randall Cobb in the FOURTH round? --- and other than Rodgers, Lacy, Cobb, Greg Olsen and a late grab of DeAndre Hopkins, Adam's draft was a talent-free wasteland.  But he somehow managed to make things work just well enough to earn the crappy draft position and no money.  Well done, Adam.

The Leviathans: Levi would edge out Taylor for biggest late-season nosedive if not for the fact that he managed to finish in the money --- barely.

Consider this.  Through the first 9 weeks, Levi won 8 games and led the league in scoring with 727 points --- just shy of 81 points per game.  In the final 7 weeks (including playoffs), he managed only two wins and scored a total of 354 points --- just shy of 51 points per game.  The reason?  It mostly boils down to Peyton Manning and Julius Thomas.  Those two combined for 10 total TDs through the first 9 weeks.  They got two more in week 10, and that was it.  Levi basically didn't have a tight end through the last half of the season (Larry Donnell started strong, had three good games in weeks 9-11, and then disappeared), and of course we all know that Peyton steadily ran out of steam after week 12.

Surprisingly, Levi also managed only a single weekly win.  But he captured third place, which is something.

~ AirMex ~: The bad news is, all of Mex's previous TTFFL seasons have been lost to history.  The good news is that this season will be preserved, at least as long as this league lives on ESPN.  And this season was truly remarkable.

During the 14-week regular season, Mex won 9 games and lost 5.  What's remarkable is that his five losses were all in a row, and were followed by NINE consecutive wins (including the first round of the playoffs).  Even more remarkable was that win or lose, Mex was never really in a close game during the regular season.  He never won a game by fewer than 7 points, and never lost by fewer than FOURTEEN.

So of course, he won his first-round playoff game by 2 in a squeaker.  What the hell?

Mex had a decent draft.  Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and RG3 were busts, but somehow we let T.Y. Hilton slide all the way down to Mex in the SIXTH ROUND.  Guys, we need to step up our game in the draft next year!  Mostly it seems that he was very efficient with his points.  He scored the fourth-most points in the league, and he saved them up and didn't really start using them until week 7.  And, uh, he just kind of ran out of them by the time he got to the playoffs.

And unofficially, we the league record for most consecutive wins is still 9, as Mex ties the 2012 Ninjas squad (the Ninjas still hold the regular season winning streak record though).

Which brings us to the 2014 champions:

Los Diablos: Los Diablos didn't score the most points in the league.  In fact, they came in seventh, sandwiched in-between Screaming Eagles and Air Apparent.  They had a good draft, but not an outstanding one.  They had an excellent start with Matt Forte, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, and had a couple of other good picks in Philip Rivers and DeSean Jackson.  But they had clunkers too, in Keenan Allen, Darren Sproles, Dennis Pitta and Riley Cooper.

They even endured a 4-game losing streak, standing at 4-6 through 10 weeks.  They took the title because, as so often is the case, they got hot at the right time (and they had a bit of luck).

The turning point for the champs was their 37-36 victory over then league-leader Leviathans.  If Levi had started Lamar Miller over Andre Williams that week, I'd be talking about the Hollow Graham's right now (how does that ground glass feel, Jody?).

After that win, Los Diablos had a pretty easy time of it against --- um, Jody --- then Aaron, Pete, Levi again, and finally Mex for the title.  Those clowns in the playoffs could have presented Kubicek with a bit more of a challenge, but they didn't, and now everything has gone to hell.

Sorry about that.  I worked really hard to set that up; I HAD to cash it in.

And so another TTFFL season goes into the books.  Enjoy the rest of the playoffs and the Super Bowl, and I'll being getting in touch with you on July 5!

2014 End-of-Year Accounting

I will be posting my usual end-of-season nonsense sometime between now and the Super Bowl.  But I want to close the books on the accounting side of things now.  Jason and Paul won some money in our couples' league, so in order to keep all of the accounting information in one place . . . .

Sadly, I owe lots and lots of money to Kubicek.  The full total is: $300 for the title, $75 for Battlin' Sweethearts winnings ($50 for highest couples' total, plus $25 to his wife Alyce for trouncing him in the consolation game), plus $15 for the most points in week 6.  All told, that's $300 + $75 + $15 = $390.

Plus, Kubicek and I have one other side bet still going, so I'll keep his tab open until that gets resolved.

Jason: $150 (Battlin' Sweethearts league champion), plus $45 for the most points in weeks 1, 14 and 15, plus $10 carried over from 2013.  $150 + $45 + $10 = $205.

$110 will be applied to 2015 dues for TTFFL and Battlin' Sweethearts.  I need to know where to send the check for the remaining $95.

Mex: $120 for finishing second, plus $45 for most points in weeks 9, 12 and 13.  $120 + $45 = $165.  $60 will be applied to 2015 dues for TTFFL.  I need to know where to send the check for the remaining $105.

Levi: $60 for winning the consolation game (3rd place), pus $15 for most points in week 2.  $60 + $15 = $75.  $60 will be applied to 2015 dues for TTFFL.  The remaining $15 will be applied to Pete's account, and Pete will pay Levi $15.

Merrill: $30 for most points in weeks 3 and 11.  Will be applied to 2015 TTFFL dues.

Kevin: $30 for most points in weeks 4 and 16.  Will be applied to 2015 TTFFL dues.

Taylor: $15 or most points in week 5. Will be applied to 2015 TTFFL dues.

Adam: $15 for most points in week 7. Will be applied to 2015 TTFFL dues.

Aaron: $15 for most points in week 8. Will be applied to 2015 TTFFL dues.

Pete: $15 for most points in week 10, plus a $15 credit for 2015 in exchange for paying Levi the final $15 he is owed from 2014.  $30 will be applied to 2015 TTFFL dues.

Jody and YEC: Not a damn thing.

I was stunned to discover that we had a different high-point-scorer during each of the first ten weeks of the season --- which is crazy!  I don't know if that means the we really have a fairly balanced league in terms of skill, or if it was just a random bit of luck.  But it was still kind of interesting.

Please review the accounting under your name, and let me know if you think I've made a mistake.  Also, let me know if you would like to receive full payment of your winnings rather than have all or part of them applied to 2015 league dues.  If I don't hear any objections, this listing of 2014 accounting will be considered final.

Keep an eye out for final 2014 year nonsense sometime soon!

=========
12/28/2014: Updated to Levi and Pete's totals to reflect the way Levi got his last $15 without my mailing him a check.

12/30/2014: Check for $105 mailed to Mex.

2/3/2015: Check for $180 mailed to Kubicek (go, Patriots!), and check for $95 mailed to Jason.

The Devil, You Say!!

The Trash-Talking Fantasy Football League has officially gone to hell.

Clowns

For the most part, the playoff teams in the first round performed like a clown act.

Okay.  You guys have me seriously reconsidering the playoff format for next year.  Maybe instead of playing a 14-game season to determine the four best teams, and then staging a 2-week playoff, maybe we'll just award the title to the guy with the best clown makeup.  Or maybe we can run around shouting 'Beagle, beagle, beagle!!!' while wearing various muppet characters as hats.  Wait, I know.  You can all come out to Minnesota, where I live, and we can go sledding down this big hill that has a lake at the bottom.  Each of you guys can sled down the hill one at a time, and when you get close to the bottom, I'll smash a big hole in the ice so that one by one you can sail into the ice-cold water at 60 MPH.  The winner will be the guy who stays in the lake the longest without dying.

Seriously, though, why did we even play this season?  After performing well enough to make the playoffs, the top three seeds --- Levi, Adam and Mex --- all took a dive (metaphorically, not literally), and stunk up the joint, scoring a combined 122 points.

They were SO bad, they were actually outscored by EVERY OTHER SINGLE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE, including the ones competing in the Toilet Bowl (except not Taylor, obviously).  Yes, either Levi or Adam will take the 3rd-place prize of $60, and Mex might even win the whole thing, but at the moment, it sure doesn't seem like they deserve it.

I should take time out from the rant to congratulate Kubicek for being the one playoff team to actually play like one, whipping Levi by a score of 79-42.  So the finals will match up Mex's 9-game winning streak against Kubicek's actual competence.  Kubicek is installed as an 8-point favorite, and I have to give him props for having the stones to actually start a Jaguars RB in the finals.  No matter how the game eventually is decided, he has my respect for that move.

There are really only two other game anyone cares about (if that many).  In the battle for the 2015 #1 pick, yours truly faces off against the Hollow Graham's for no doubt the final time.  Sure, I'll have more games against Jody in the future, but I doubt his team will have that name.  I'm guessing that the instant the Broncos/Bengals game is over Monday night, Jody changes his team name back to the Oddly-Shaped Golf Clubs, or whatever the hell he wants to call it.

It's been 2 years since Jody got to name his own team, so I've forgotten what the 'real' name is.

And finally, there's the Toilet Bowl, featuring Strike Team against the Golden Graham's.  Wouldn't it be ironic if, after 2 years with Jody as the league goat, Kevin finally had to take a turn?

The Final Four

The Contenders
First off, I want to thank Levi for making the playoff race more interesting than it would be otherwise.  After a 7-0 start, he dropped 5 of his last 7 and 4 of his last 5, but still managed to clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs.  Heck, he even had room to spare; he would have squeaked in as the #3 seed even if he had dropped his week 13 game against Kevin.

But, you know, it was Kevin, so.  Not much chance he would lose that one.  But the playoffs start this week, so Levi had better get back to his winning ways, or he'll have nothing to show for the season but the ninth overall pick in next year's draft.

At the #2 seed is Suspended Atomnation, who actually WON 4 of his past 5 games, with the one loss coming at the hands of yours truly.  The good news is that Adam got hot at the right time of the season; the bad news is that he's lost to the Ninjas twice this year, which proves that he could go down at any time.

Of course the hottest team in the league is AirMex, currently riding an 8-game winning streak, and playing his best game right now.  He's won his last 3 games by margins of 20+ points, and his opponent in the first round of the playoffs is the eminently beatable Adam.

On the other hand, there was another team, back in 2012, who rode into the playoffs on a NINE game winning streak to grab the #1 seed.  That owner lost both games in the playoffs and ended up with nothing to show for his amazing streak --- other than the ninth overall draft pick in 2013.

Finally, there's Los Diablos, who recovered from a mid-season 4-game losing streak to snag the #4 seed.  And unlike Mex, who's been winning games by comfortable margins, two of Los Diablos' wins have been relative squeakers, like last week's 57-45 win over the River Horses, and his 37-36 week 11 win over his first-round opponent, the Leviathans.

The Battle for the #1 Pick
Four teams finished the year at 7-7, and appropriately, none of them made the playoffs.  So instead of fighting for the title, they will instead fight for the #1 pick in the 2015 draft.  Each of these guys was close to claiming the last playoff spot: If Merrill had started Nick Novak week 12 against Kevin; if Mason Crosby had missed a field goal instead of a PAT last week when Jody played Aaron; if Taylor had managed to win even ONE of his last four games; or if the Ninjas had managed to win their week 4 matchup against Los Diablos.

None of these guys are pushovers, and they're going to get the top four picks in next year's draft.  So I'm going to make my first bold prediction for 2015 right now: The 2015 champion will be one of these four teams.

Except not Taylor, obviously.

Fighting for their Good Name:
Jody and YEC finished 6th and 8th during the regular season, thus putting an end to the Past Champions' curse.  But Pete and Aaron still fell into the loser's bracket --- the second consecutive year for Aaron and the THIRD consecutive year for Pete --- so I guess they just suck or something.  Joining Strike Team and the River Horses in the battle to avoid last place will be the Screaming Eagles and Golden Graham's.

An interesting plot line to watch: there's a chance Levi will get to name his dad's team next year!  And I'm sure we would all be excited to see that one!

For teams in the loser's brackets, remember that you're not just playing for draft position and/or to avoid losing your team name, but the weekly prize for high-point scorer continues through week 16.  So good luck in week 15, everyone!

Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

The playoff picture cleared up a bit after week 13, when The Leviathans and Suspended Atomnation were the first teams to clinch playoff spots --- helps a bit when you win a game, doesn't it Levi?  Unfortunately, clarity is not such a good thing for the Marauders, Golden Graham's and Ninjas, who aren't officially eliminated yet --- but who all face long odds of participating in the postseason.

But that's not a problem, is it Han?

Anyway, here's the usual team-by-team breakdown heading into the final week of the season:

Leviathans: Clinch the #1 seed with a win, unless Adam also wins and outscores Levi by 59 points or more.  Take the #2 seed with a loss and Atomnation win --- or Atomnation outscoring them by 59+ points.

Suspended Atomnation: As noted above, can claim the #1 seed with a win and by outscoring The Leviathans by 59+ points.  A win without an insane number of points will give Adam the #2 seed.  A loss also gives Adam the #2 seed, unless Mex also wins and outscores Adam by 24 or more points, in which case he takes the #3 seed.

~ AirMex ~: Proud owner of an INSANE 7-game win streak, AirMex is ON FIRE!  They're the hottest team in the league right now, coming off a 92-54 win over the league-leading Leviathans and a 104-84 win over Merrill.

Mex can grab the #2 seed with a win and an Atomnation loss if Mex outscores Adam by 24+ points.  Otherwise, a win puts sets up Mex as the #3 seed.  With a loss, Mex could end up anywhere between the #3 seed to the #5 seed (and out of the playoffs), depending on whether Taylor and Jody win, and on how many points they score.

Air Apparent, Hollow Graham's, Los Diablos: There's a fair chance at least one of these guys will win their matchup this weekend.  If only one team gets the W, that team is in the playoffs.  If two or three of them get wins, the final two playoff spots will be determined by points and whether Mex wins his game.

In the unlikely event that ALL THREE of these teams lose this weekend to finish 7-7, the door is opened for Merrill to claim the final playoff spot.  Speaking of which . . . .

Merrill's Marauders: The ONLY way the Marauders get into the playoffs is if Taylor, Jody and Kubicek all lose, and Merrill wins.  Technically we need to be concerned about points, but since Merrill leads all of these guys by 63 points or more, that's not likely to be an issue.

Merrill is also at the tipping point, in that his chances of winning the title are roughly the same as his chances of slipping into the losers bracket and losing the Toilet Bowl.

Golden Graham's, Psychotic Ninjas: Not technically, OFFICIALLY eliminated yet, but the path to the playoffs for either of these teams only exists in a fantasyland which can only be realized by a miracle (like, say, starting four Jonas Grays in the same week).  For either of these teams to claim the #4 spot will require, AT A MINIMUM:

• A win in week 14.
• Losses by Air Apparent, Hollow Graham's and Los Diablos
• A loss by Merrill, and outscoring Taylor by 87 points, OR
• Outscoring Merrill by 150+ points.

The good news for each of these teams is that there are much more realistic scenarios which will lead them to next year's #1 overall pick.  The bad news for each of these teams is that it's about equally likely that they lose the Toilet Bowl and have to play out next season using a name picked out by Levi.

Screaming Eagles, Orion River Horses: Between these two teams, , Merrill's Marauders, Golden Graham's and Psychotic Ninjas, three of them will finish in the loser's bracket.  The Eagles and River Horses are guaranteed to play in the loser's bracket with a loss; they can play their way into the race for 2015's #1 pick with a win depending on whether any of the 6-7 teams lose and how the points fall.

Let's hope that at least one of the Ninjas and River Horses (okay --- the Ninjas) play their way out of the loser's bracket and avoid the past champions' curse.  Speaking of which:

Strike Team: Guaranteed to start the postseason at the bottom of the loser's bracket, Aaron is still trying to recover from his 2012 TTFFL title.

Good luck everyone! I'd really love to see the Golden Graham's or Ninjas beat the odds and make the playoffs; it would be epic.

Week 13 Playoff Scenarios

The Leviathans continued their second-half faceplant, and Mex continued his second half winning streak, defeating the Leviathans 92-54.

It's turning out to be another exciting finish to the TTFFL season, as going into week 13 we find NINE teams within two games of each other at the top of the league standings.  We can thank the Leviathans for some of that for dropping 3 games in a row.  The rest of the thanks goes to Taylor, Jody and especially Merrill for letting the Ninjas, Los Diablos and Kevin get away with victories to keep them all in the running at 6-6.  Of course, 9 teams still in the running means more complexity to the playoff scenarios, but I'll do my best to unwind it.

The Leviathans: The Leviathans aren't officially in the playoffs yet, but it would take a near-miracle for them to miss, even if they don't win another regular season game.  The reason is the huge lead they still have in total points scored.  Even if they lose their remaining games to Kevin and Merrill, ONE of the 6-6 teams would need to win both of their remaining games AND score enough points to finish with more points than Levi.  The only 6-6 team with a realistic shot at doing that is Merrill, and if he wins out, then Mex will finish no better than 8-6, and likely with fewer points than Levi.

So, Levi will probably be in the playoffs, but only as the #4 seed at the rate he's going.

Suspended Atomnation: Adam makes the playoffs with just one more win, either this week against Taylor or next week against the Ninjas.  If he should lose both of those games, he'll still get in unless some 6-6 team wins out and beats Adam in terms of points.  As things stand, it looks like Merrill, Jody and Kubicek are the only 6-6 teams with a shot at outscoring Adam.  It's also fairly likely at least one of those guys wins out, so just to play it safe Adam, you should plan to beat Taylor this week, then rest your players for the playoffs when you go up against the Ninjas in week 14.

Air Apparent: When we get to the 7-5 teams, things get interesting.  Two wins will clinch a playoff spot for both Taylor and Mex.  With a single win, Taylor would also make the playoffs unless Mex and Merrill both win out --- and that can't happen since Mex and Merrill play each other this week.

So Taylor is almost certainly in unless he loses BOTH of his remaining games against Adam and Jason, and if that happens, he is almost certainly out (you have to believe at least one of the five 6-6 teams would win out and take the #4 seed in that event).

~ AirMex ~: In pretty much the same situation as Taylor, but with 50 fewer points.  Two more wins also puts Mex in the playoffs --- and as the proud owner of a 6-game win streak, that seems likely.  But if Mex picks up just one more win, it will come down to points between Mex, and whatever other teams finish 8-6.  Given Merrill's high point total, a 2-game losing streak will put an end to Mex's season.

Merrill's Marauders: King of the 6-6 teams, Merrill is the only only one who still has a decent playoff shot if he only manages one more win.  This is due to two factors: A) With 825 points, he is second only to Levi in points scored for the season, and B) He plays Mex this week.  A victory over Mex will give Merrill the tiebreaker advantage over Mex, Jody, Kubicek, Kevin and YEC.  This week's game against Mex also means that Merrill is the only 6-6 team who is guaranteed a playoff spot if he finishes 8-6.  And it goes without saying that losses to Mex and Levi will end Merrill's season.

Hollow Graham's, Los Diablos, Golden Graham's and Psychotic Ninjas: Unlike Merrill, these 6-6 teams can't rely on high point totals to bail them out of a loss.  If I sat down and crunched the numbers, I might be able to find a way for one of them to sneak into the playoffs at 7-7, but the reality is that each of these teams needs to win out to have any hope of participating in the big dance, and even then there's no guarantee.

Orion River Horses, Screaming Eagles and Strike Team: Better luck next year, guys.  At least Pete and Jason have an outside shot at competing for next year's #1 pick.