Poor Little Choo Choo ...

... off the rails already. Better luck next week!

Week 1 in Review

Note that the title is NOT 'Weak One in Review', because if it were, I would have to talk about Merrill the whole time.  Good Lord did his team suck swamp water last week.  They even underperformed Kubicek and his steaming pile of autodraft, which is pretty damn impressive.

Speaking of autodrafted teams, the Rock-n-it-Datanators actually beat Taylor last week, which goes to show that it's possible to win using autodraft, as long as the system doesn't draft THREE players for you who will miss at least half the season.  It also goes to show that Taylor's lucky streak (as in, his utterly failing to have any luck of any kind, ever) is still alive and well.

As for me, I consider it a moral victory that Jason hung 59 points on me Thursday night, and I still managed to close the gap to 36 by the end of the week.  I've had my one loss for the season --- and I essentially have a bye coming up this week against Merrill --- so it's pretty clear the Ninjas are going to be a force once again this year.

No Cheating!

Enough said.

Groovy

Most of you don't know this about me, but I earn my living as a software engineer. I write lovely programs which will tell you exactly how crazy you are, or programs which make your school photos look better.

So it's a bit of a surprise that it's taken me this long to apply my mad software skillz to fantasy football. But this year I have, writing a Groovy script to help me rank my players for the upcoming season. I figure that the outcome will either be a remarkable and decisive improvement in my draft, thus returning me to the TTFFL championship glory I so justly deserve, or a humiliating failure, leading to a last-place finish and my having to play 2014 with a team named something other than the Psychotic Ninjas.

Either way, it's time to get ready for 2013, peeps. And it is so on.

2012 Year in Review

I'm sitting here watching reruns of Malcolm in the Middle, and trying to think of something clever to write for the year-end review.  I'm also mildly annoyed that this will be my first season in 6 years of playing fantasy that I don't at least break even financially (thank goodness for Adam and his BFL confidence league, or this year would have been a total bust), but I'm pretty sure the Broncos and Seahawks will come through for me big time in my playoff league.

And thanks to the new league rules which set next year's draft order based on this year's results, I'm already planning my strategy for next year.  How could anyone think this was a bad rule?

Anyway, our team-by-team review of the year starts with:

The Team Formerly Known as the Puttheads: The Non-Puttheads' season ended in a fitting fashion, not with a bang, but with a pathetic 28-point performance agains the defending champion Orion River Horses.  The first TTFFL Toilet Bowl (yes, that's what I'm calling the week 16 battle for last place until someone comes up with a better name) lived down to expectations, as it was the lowest-scoring game all year.  Jody's 28 tied for third-lowest score all season, and Pete's "winning" score of 35 was eighth-lowest.  And although Jody managed to cram the 5th-highest regular season point total into only four wins, it's fairly easy to see how he finished last.  With QB choices of the weak-armed Andy Dalton and the injured Michael Vick, the RB trio of Alex Green, Rashard Mendenhall and Shane Vereen behind his stud Arian Foster (who put up a spectacular -2 before leaving the game with an irregular heartbeat), and the stud TE Gronkowski sitting on his bench, Jody didn't stand a chance.

Let's all enjoy making Jody a punching bag for the next year, because I expect he'll bounce back in 2013.

The Orion River Horses: Usually 35 points doesn't win you anything in this league, but the River Horses' pitiful 35 point performance in the Toilet Bowl did win something for Pete: he gets to keep his team name.  Other than that, 2012 was pretty much wall-to-wall disappointment for our defending league champion.  After week 9 standing at 4-5, he actually had a shot, but then finished the season on a 5-game losing streak.  This despite having the #6 QB in the league in RGIII, who he managed to bench at crucial points in the season.  The fact that he managed to dodge the last-place boobie prize is the lone bright spot for a defending champ who finished the regular season with the lowest point total in the league.

Note to Aaron: Jody was the league champ in 2010, and Pete in 2011.  They're keeping a spot warm for you in the cellar for next year.

Suspended Atomnation: Rounding out the 4-10 teams who justly finished at the bottom of the league is Adam and his Suspended Atomnation, proud owner of two of the three lowest game scores all season.  This year's Suspended Atomnation team proved that there is something to the notion of karma, stinking it up for the first 10 weeks (with only a week 3 win over the arguably more pathetic River Horses)  before scoring wins in 4 of his next 5 games --- averaging 87.5 points in those wins --- after belatedly paying his league dues.  In fact, owners in other leagues may want to give Adam a kick in the head for karmically ruining the fantasy seasons of LeSean McCoy, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mikel LeShoure, Steven Jackson, Hakeem Nicks and Tony Romo through the first 11 weeks of the season.

But Adam's paid up through the start of 2014, so you should look out for Adam's Atoms next year!

Los Diablos: The lowest-seeded of an amazing 9 teams that finished the season at .500 or better, Kubicek and his Diablos pretty much learned that those who live by the stud QB die by the stud QB.  Aaron Rodgers had a good fantasy year, finishing 3rd overall in fantasy scoring for the season, but saved two of his best efforts for weeks 16 and 17, which were of no use to Los Diablos.  Particularly crushing were his 7-, 9- and 8-point totals in the final three weeks of the season, pushing Kubicek from playoff contender to top dog in the loser's bracket.

This is not to say that Rodgers' down weeks were Los Diablos' only problems.  He also came out on the wrong end of 2-point losses in high scoring games against Leviathans in week 4 and Screaming Eagles in week 7.  And then, of course, there was the ruthless 103-71 pounding Kubicek took from THE MIGHTY NINJAS in week 9!!!  Let's see, that's a last-place finish in 2011, and 9th-place in 2012.  You might make it as high as 6th next year, Kubicek!!!

Team Datanator: Was the most schizophrenic team in the league, running hot and cold in equal amounts and so quite understandably finishing 7-7.  I'm far too lazy to calculate the standard deviation in weekly scores for every team in the league (maybe some year I'll set up a calculator to do that for me --- the results could be fascinating!), but I think it's a good bet that Team Datanator had the highest one this year.  Just as likely to score 30 points as 80 in any given week, Nick's weekly point totals were as unpredictable as his drafting strategy or his starting lineup from one week to the next.  But actually, were it not for conveniently low-scoring opponents in weeks 7-9, Team Datanator would have been playing in the Toilet Bowl in week 16 instead of the River Horses.

With the fourth overall pick in the draft next year, maybe Team Datanator can make up for their biggest weakness in 2012 --- having to choose each week between Josh Freeman and Matt Cassel at quarterback.

Air Apparent: For the sixth year in a row (at least), Taylor demonstrates that scoring a lot of points isn't a requirement for winning a TTFFL title.  Taylor always scores a lot of points, and he never wins any titles.  I don't remember what Taylor might have done in the old pre-ESPN days, but somehow he always manages to be done for the year after week 14.  This year, it seems Taylor managed the feat by scoring practically all of his points in the first four weeks of the season.  It's hard to believe that a team with Matt Ryan, Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller, Megatron, Roddy White and Randall Cobb could finish out of the money, but Taylor does have a talent for doing a little with a lot.  Keep it up next year, big guy!

Golden Graham's: I think it's fair to say that, despite the 6th-place finish, this was Kevin's best year in the league.  He scored wins over Jody and The Evil One (though dropping the critical week 14 playoff qualifier to Merrill), he actually outscored the league in week 3, which I'm led to believe is the first time in the 123 years of the TTFFL that he's won a dime, he clawed his way to sole possession of first place after week 12 (right before he jinxed himself by bragging and dropping his final two games), and he'll get the #2 pick in the draft next year, which I believe is the highest draft pick he's ever had.

Kind of sad, really.  Kevin's season was fairly mediocre, and it's the best he's ever had.  Still, 6th place overall is pretty good for a team with Matt Schaub and Sam Bradford as its starting QBs.

The Leviathans: Levi drafted the top overall player in fantasy in 2012 (Drew Brees) and the #1 RB (Adrian Peterson), and still managed to finish 5th.  Like Kubicek, The Leviathans' season was largely dependent on their stud QB, eating critical losses in weeks 13 and 14 when Brees was less than brilliant, and was in fact downright awful.  Levi also suffered with an unreliable receiving corps (Jennings, Bowe) and unreliable supporting backfield behind AP, including the feast-and-mostly famine Jamaal Charles.

With the first overall pick next year, the only remaining question is whether Levi can get a better supporting cast for AP in 2013.  Maybe if he doesn't draft quite so many kickers.

The Psychotic Ninjas: Oh, the fantasy gods had a merry time with the Ninjas this year.  They did.  From the 0-4 oh-wait-stat-correction-I-mean 0-5 start, to their subsequent 9 game winning streak, to their absolutely hopeless pounding at the hands of Strike Team in the first round of the playoffs to the consolation game loss courtesy of the absolutely hopeless Arizona Cardinals coughing up not one but TWO defensive TDs to the Chicago Bears and, by extension, the Screaming Eagles, the Ninjas ultimately ended up in the second-crappiest position at the end of the season.  No money, but also a lousy draft pick heading into 2013.  The only silver lining is that the team will still be named the Psychotic Ninjas --- and the fact that we all know they can win no matter where they're drafting from.

But that semifinal playoff game --- damn.  I mean, Colin Kaepernick scored THREE TIMES as many points as the rest of the Ninjas starters combined.  If the rest of the Ninjas' starters had even managed to get a couple of points below their season average, they would have prevailed over Strike Team in spite of James Jones' best fantasy day ever, and then the Ninjas would have steamrolled the Marauders for their fourth league title.  But the fantasy gods made sure that never came close to happening.  I wonder what I did to upset them?

At any rate, I'm pretty sure I can play fantasy for the next 20 years and never see another 9-game winning streak.

The Screaming Eagles: The Eagles' season actually paralleled the Ninjas' fairly closely, expect that the Eagles did most of their winning early on (7-1 in their first 8 games), then enduring a 4-game losing streak before ringing up wins in weeks 13 and 14 to finish the season right behind the Ninjas.  It's appropriate that these two met in the consolation round.  While the Eagles muddled along with a fair-to-middlin' backfield (Eli, Shonn Greene, Ahmad Bradshaw), the Eagles real strength was in their receiving corps (Julio, Brandon Marshall, Demariyus Thomas).  Maybe the Eagles should declare themselves the new YAC Attack, since the name's available.

But real strength of the Eagles was in their defense --- or, more accurately, the Bears defense, which probably deserves credit for four of the Eagles' victories, including the consolation matchup with the Ninjas (Damn you, crappy Arizona Cardinals!  Damn you, Beanie Wells!).  Which just goes to prove the most basic truism of fantasy football: always draft a defense early.

Merrill's Marauders: The 2012 Marauders are an example of a team playing above their talent level (similar to the 2011 River Horses).  With only the 8th-most points in the league through 14 weeks, the Marauders were a mediocre 5-5 before putting on a burst to the finish line with a 4-game win streak to end the season, including what I'm sure was a very satisfying week 14 dismemberment of the Golden Graham's to end their playoff hopes.  As was the case with Los Diablos and the Leviathans, Merrill's season mostly hinged on the play of his QB, in this case Cam Newton, who appeared to be a bust early on, but then got it all together in the final weeks to help push Merrill almost all the way to the top.  Merrill's loss in the title game was partly due to the fact that his supporting case let him down (I think Darren McFadden is a pretty good candidate for bust of the year, no?), and partly due to the fact that Aaron's team came up big when it counted --- gee, it seems like I say that about our champion every year, doesn't it?

Which brings us to . . . .

Strike Team: Shortly before the trade deadline, I made Aaron a trade offer.  I was feeling like Tony Romo wouldn't get me the points I needed from QB, but I felt like I was loaded at RB, with Doug Martin, Fred Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Vick Ballard and about to pick Ronnie Hillman up off of waivers.  I looked at Aaron's pitiful backfield of Reggie Bush, Michael Bush and NO ONE ELSE (Willis McGahee had just gone on IR), and figured he might want to take two of my non-Martin RBs in exchange for Manning.

I later decided I didn't want to make that swap, and neither did Aaron.  I continued my winning streak and was glad to see Aaron make the playoffs, figuring he'd go nowhere with the nowhere backfield.  One less team I needed to worry about.

Oops.

Who could have predicted that Reggie Bush, averaging a bit more than 5 points per game going into the championship, would blow up for 23?  Who could have predicted that James freakin' Jones, who started the season barely ahead of the geriatric Donald Driver on the Packers' depth chart, would blow up for 21 points in the semifinal round, and 11 in the title game?  Other than Peyton, Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, who on Aaron's roster is someone you would expect to be on a championship team?  (And Hernandez put up a goose egg in the title game).

But, hey, that's fantasy.  And don't forget, Aaron: This year for the first time, as a bonus for your victory, you'll get to choose a name an avatar for Jody's team next year.  I'm guessing Kevin might have some suggestions for you if you need ideas.

So as we close the books on the 2012 TTFFL season, we once again salute Strike Team for their title, and vow to crush them beneath our heel in the 2013 season.  As we look ahead to July, when I start bugging everyone about starting up again, here's a reminder about next season's draft order:

1. The Leviathans
2. Golden Graham's
3. Air Apparent
4. Team Datanator
5. Los Diablos
6. Suspended Atomnation
7. Orion River Horses
8. ??? - (The Team Formerly Known as the Puttheads)
9. Psychotic Ninjas
10. Screaming Eagles
11. Merrill's Marauders
12. Strike Team

Happy New Year, everyone!

Final Regular-Season Standings

Okay, everyone who saw this coming, raise your hand.

I mean, okay, I know I'm good, but 9 straight wins worth of good?  Especially after starting out 0-5?  Unbelieveable.

And another remarkable aspect of the final standings in 2012 has to do with quarterbacks.  Recall the first three picks of this year's draft:

1. Tom Brady (Psychotic Ninjas, traded to Atomnation after week 4)
2. Aaron Rodgers (Los Diablos)
3. Drew Brees (Leviathans)

NONE of the teams with those QBs made the playoffs, only the Leviathans were even in it in week 14, and recall that when Brady was playing for the Ninjas, they went 0-4.  The team with RG3 (the River Horses, soon to be the Prima Ballerinas) also finished well out of the money, ending the season on a 5-game losing streak.  Of the four playoff teams, only Strike Team (Peyton) has a QB who was truly elite for most of the season, although Cam Newton has been coming on strong for Merrill lately.  And the Ninjas and Eagles captured the top two seeds, and finished in the top three in overall points, with Tony Romo and Eli Manning, who finished 14th and 16th in QB scoring, respectively.  Finally, Air Apparent, who led the league in scoring, did it with Matt Ryan, the 9th-scoring QB.

So much for the notion that drafting a top QB early is a winning strategy.

Anyway, without further ado, here's how things stand heading into the playoffs where, for the first time ever, ALL TWELVE TEAMS will have something to play for through week 16.

1. Psychotic Ninjas (9-5, 952 points)  Woo-hoo!  THAT'S what I'm talkin' 'bout!  Blasting into the playoffs as the #1 seed and riding a 9-game winning streak, the Ninjas defeated each of the three other playoff teams the last time they played.  Can they keep it up for 2 more weeks, or have they peaked too soon?
2. Screaming Eagles (9-5, 946 points) The Eagles would like to pretend weeks 9-12 never happened.  That's when they went on a 4-game losing streak which dropped them from dominating league-leader to near also-ran.  Can they bounce back against Merrill?
3. Merrill's Marauders (9-5, 863 points) If it weren't for the Ninjas, the Marauders would be the hottest team in the league.  They ride into the playoffs with a 4-game win streak which started week 11 against the Eagles.  With Cam Newton playing like an elite QB, they might bully their way to the title.
4. Strike Team (9-5, 831 points) Aaron also charges into the playoffs on a 4-game win streak; their last loss came to the Ninjas in week 10.  Strike Team's strength is Peyton Manning, back in Hall of Fame form; their major weakness is in their starting backfield of Reggie Bush and Montell Owens.
5. Golden Grahams (8-6, 814 points) The fantasy gods teased Kevin a bit this year, awarding him a late-week victory in week 5 over the Ninjas, the last time they lost.  And they raised his hopes of finally claiming the prize, putting him in sole possession of first place after week 12.  Consecutive losses in the season's final two weeks left him on the outside looking in, but with the consolation that a strong playoff showing might finally leave him with the first overall draft pick in 2013.
6. Air Apparent (7-7, 976 points) Yet again, Taylor finishes at or near the top in points scored, yet misses the playoffs.  At least this year, his high point total might serve him well in positioning for next year's draft.
7. The Leviathans (7-7, 932 points) Like Kevin, Levi got to the threshold of the playoffs, sitting at 7-5 after 12 weeks with his fate in his own hands.  But like Kevin, a season-ending 2-game losing streak left the Leviathans in the upper consolation bracket.
8. Team Datanator (7-7, 873 points) Four of Nick's losses this season came by a combined total of 8 points.  It's kind of scary to think how different the final standing might be if Nick paid more attention to his lineup.
9. Los Diablos (7-7, 870 points) What's surprising about Los Diablos' season isn't the 7-7 finish.  After all, wins and losses are fairly unpredictable.  The really surprising thing is that with Aaron Rodgers at QB, Los Diablos only managed to finish 7th in points scored.  The real killer for Los Diablos' season was the 3-game skid in weeks 11-13, during which Los Diablos only managed to average a bit more than 41 points a week.  My primary goal the next two weeks is to win the title; my secondary goal is to see Kubicek drop his final two games, so I get to name his team next year.
10. Newnan Puttheads (4-10, 931 points) Like Taylor, Jody has an amazing ability to score lots of points while losing lots of games.  Other than winning the title in 2010, Jody generally has totally crappy luck.  On the plus side, with him in the bottom loser's bracket, it's more likely Kubicek will take the bottom slot.
11. Suspended Atomnation (4-10, 813 points) Karma!  In weeks 1-10, Adam only managed a single victory, and that was a pitiful 47-46 victory over the pitiful Orion River Horses.  I forget when Adam finally paid his dues (and kicked an extra $15 into the title pot), but I DO know that he finished the season strong, wining 3 of his final 4.  Feeling nervous yet, Kubicek?
12. Orion River Horses (4-10, 811 points) Yikes!  What happened to our defending champ?  I'm sure I don't know --- part of it has to do with his acknowledged knack for keeping his best performers on his bench --- but Pete finished the regular season in style, losing his final five.  Let's hope he can put it all together just once in week 15, to get Kubicek into the Toilet Bowl

In closing, gentlemen, I'd like to leave you with this one thought heading into the playoff weeks:

WOO-HOO!!! NINJAS RULE!!!  WINNERS OF 9 STRAIGHT, AND ON TO THE TITLE, BABY!!! THAT'S RIGHT, SUCKERS, READ 'EM AND WEEP!!!

First

As in, this is the first time that no one has clinched a playoff spot 13 weeks into the season.  It's also the first time there's been a FIVE-WAY tie for first place after 13 weeks, and the first time there's been this many teams with 8 or more wins (and we'll probably pick up one or two more during this week's games).

And yes, I'm going to point out that if the playoffs started today THE MIGHTY NINJAS would be the #1 seed.  And I'm pretty sure this is the first time a team has run off an 8-game winning streak after starting 0-5.  And if I can run this streak up to eleven (how hard can it be?), it will be the first time a team claimed the title after starting 0-5.

All of this, of course, with the caveat that I'm not a league historian, so I could be wrong about some of this.  But isn't it amazing that I was down 74-16 to Jody at 7:00 PM Sunday, and then Romo, Bryce Brown, Garcon and Tynes put together 64 points, which means they would have beaten Kevin, Levi, Merrill, Kubicek, Aaron, Adam and Pete all by themselves?

Anyway, there's still a logjam at the top, but fortunately with only one game left in the season, it's pretty easy to paint the playoff picture.  There are five 8-5 teams, and since Merrill and Kevin play each other this week, only four of us can finish 9-5.  Therefore, for all of the 8-5 teams, a win gets you in, with seeding to be determined by point totals.

Things really only get interesting when considering the 7-6 teams, all of which need a win and help to clinch a playoff spot.  They break down as follows:

Air Apparent still holds the lead in points scored by a substantial margin, which means that Taylor will almost certainly claim a playoff spot with a win if any of the Ninjas, Eagles or Strike Team loses --- and odds are that at least one of them will.

Leviathans play the Ninjas this week, and only trail the Ninjas by 7 in the point totals.  So the Leviathans will clinch a playoff spot if they beat the Ninjas by 8 or more points AND Air Apparent loses.  They can also clinch a spot if they beat the Ninjas by a smaller margin, or if Air Apparent wins their game, but that involves various permutations of losses by the Eagles or Strike Team.

Team Datanator scored a historic first weekly win this week, but they still trail in points badly enough that they will only get into the playoffs with a win and losses by Strike Team, Air Apparent AND Leviathans.

As for the four teams out of playoff contention, Jody, Pete and Adam have all clinched a spot in the end-of-season tournament to avoid last place.  Kubicek needs to beat Nick by 6 or more points to avoid taking the final position in that playoff bracket.

For all of this, I don't remember what the tiebreaking rules are if Levi beats Ninjas by exactly 7 points, or Kubicek beats Nick by exactly 5, so I'll resolve that if/when it happens.

Go Ninjas!!!

P.S.  Of course, there are a couple of other 'firsts' to mention.  This is the first time we're going to determine final season standings by using multiple playoff brackets, as well as the first time the final standings for this year affect what happens next year (draft order, loser 'prize').  After I first posted this, I realized that Nick is in a unique position, because with a win and a lot of help, he could end up in the playoff bracket and ultimately take the league title, while a loss by more than 5 points will drop him into the loser bracket and thus he could ultimately finish the season dead last.  Makes this weekend's games more interesting for him than for anyone else, potentially.

And Then There Were Six

So we didn't quite manage to achieve the seven-way tie for first place.  Kubicek's 27-point stinker (with goose eggs courtesy of injuries to Matt Forte and Miles Austin) was sufficiently lame he couldn't even manage to beat Kevin, so he falls to 6-6 while Kevin stands alone atop the league at 8-4.

I'll pause for a moment to let everyone try to wrap their heads around that one.

If you think that's something, consider this.  If Elias hadn't made their late stat correction in the Steelers-Eagles game in week 5, it would be the MIGHTY NINJAS sitting alone atop the league right now, riding an 8-game winning streak rather than the puny, little, 7-game winning streak they're currently on.

Nevertheless, things are what they are, and with only two games left in the season, things are still a complete mess.  Not as messy as seven teams all tied for the lead, but still pretty bad.

First, as mentioned above, are the 8-4 Golden Graham's.  You might think they only need one win to clinch a playoff spot, and that may well turn out to be the case.  But it's actually possible for the Ninjas, Eagles, Merrill and Strike Team to all win out to finish at 9-5.  So in order to clinch a playoff spot in week 13, Kevin needs to beat Team Datanator and hope for a loss by either the Ninjas, Marauders or Strike Team (in addition to the inevitable loss by either the Leviathans or Screaming Eagles, who play each other).

Needless to say, if the league-leading Graham's need help to clinch a playoff spot in week 13, then none of the 7-5 teams will clinch next week.  These teams are currently sitting in positions 2-6 as follows based on points: Leviathans, Ninjas, the formerly league-leading Screaming Eagles, Merrill's Marauders and Strike Team.  Of those, only the Leviathans are guaranteed a playoff spot even if they win out, by virtue of the fact that their remaining matchups are against the 7-5 Eagles and 7-5 Ninjas.  All other 7-5 teams will probably clinch a playoff spot with wins in their final two games, but for each of those teams, it's possible to finish 9-5 and still end up in 5th place.

It goes without saying that if 9-5 doesn't guarantee a spot, then neither does 8-6.  So the 6-6 teams --- in order, Air Apparent, Los Diablos and Team Datanator --- need 2 more wins and a healthy dose of luck in order to participate in the postseason.

Rounding out the bottom of the league are the Puttheads, the defending champion River Horses and Atomnation, all of whom look likely to participate in the end-of-season loser bowl (though only Atomnation has clinched a spot in that playoff bracket).  Jody has already clinched the hard-luck award for the season, sitting at 4-8 despite having the fourth-highest point total in the league going into week 12.

And could Pete pull off a stunning first-to-worst finish, and proudly lead (perhaps) the Orion River Dorkuses next year?  Time will tell.

Tightening of the Screws

After week 10, two games separated the top 9 teams in the league.  I optimistically predicted that "The playoff picture should clear up a bit in the next two weeks," but as usual, it's clear that I had no idea what I was talking about.

What is going on here?  Now ONE GAME separates the top 9 teams in the league, with the Leviathans, Screaming Eagles and Graham's all at 7-4, and Air Apparent, Los Diablos, the mighty Psychotic Ninjas, Team Datanator, Merrill and Strike Team all one game behind at 6-5.

It didn't have to be this way.  Jason --- in first place and leading the league in points scored going into the week --- should have beaten Merrill, but his wideouts underperformed (especially Julio Jones).  Along with the Bears, Kubicek fell on Monday night when the Niners DST outscored Matt Forte 12-3.  And the MIGHTY NINJAS came agonizingly close to returning to their early-season irrelevance, edging the defending champion River Horses by a single point (I stole a page from Kubicek's book and started the DST which was going up against the Eagles.  It helped that Pete started Matthew 'three turnovers' Stafford over Robert Griffin '32 fantasy points' III).

Wait, it gets better.  If the week 12 games end up just so, we could be looking at a seven-way tie for first place this time next week.

Adam finally ended his bad karma streak, winning the week, but his season is officially over.  And there's such a logjam at the top, there's no hope for Jody to climb back into it, either.  Pete may have a theoretical path to the playoffs if he wins out, but I doubt it.  Frankly, I'm too lazy to do the math on that one.

But we still have no clue who the playoff teams will be for 2012, and I don't think anyone has a shot at qualifying this week.  Things are really going to come down to the wire.

Hang On, It's About to Get Bloody

Wow.  I mean, just wow.

After my most recent update, I marveled at the balance in the league.  At the end of week 8, we had:

• One 7-1 team.
• Three 5-3 teams.
• Four 4-4 teams.
• Three 3-5 teams.
• One 1-7 team.

That kind of made sense.  One clear-cut leader, one clear-cut loser, and the rest of the teams spread out between 3 and 5 wins apiece.

Somehow, in just two weeks, the league has suddenly become top-heavy.  Jason has been dragged down a bit while the mighty Ninjas have recovered from their 0-5 start and are firmly in the middle of the pack.  With four weeks left in the regular season, NINE teams in the league sit at .500 or better (and it would have been ten if Kubicek hadn't made an opportunistic pickup of the Cowboys' DST before week 10 to drop the defending champ River Horses to 4-6), and only two games separate first and ninth place.

The playoff picture should clear up a bit in the next two weeks, as 8 of the 9 'big boys' square off against each other in week 11, and again in week 12. Three or four of us are going to be hurting come week 13.

In the 5 years I've been in the league, 8 wins has always been enough to guarantee a playoff berth.  This year there's a good chance that as many as TWO teams might finish 8-6 but miss the big dance.

Good luck gentlemen. You too, Merrill and Kubicek.

UPDATE: Taylor is fairly confident he missed the playoffs in 2009, the MyFantasyLeague year (otherwise known as the 'dark times'), with 8 wins.  Could be.  I know I made the playoffs as the #4 seed that year with a record of 8-5-1.  Maybe an 8-6 team or two did miss out that year.  But I know I was the #4 seed in 2007 with a 7-6-1 record, and in 2008 with a 6-7-1 record, if you can believe that.  And since we can look at the history since 2010, when we got on the ESPN site, you can check that 8 wins has been enough to qualify since then.

This year --- probably not so much.